A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Novel approach detects early warning indicators in complex systems.
New model predicts financial market abnormalities using stock index uncertainties.
Study proposes a new early-warning framework for high-dimensional complex systems.
This study uses high-frequency data to identify early warning signals for bank crises.
Machine learning detects regime shifts in online game-experiments with high accuracy.
Trading strategy uses Hoeffding's Inequality to predict financial regime change.
Study uses DNM theory to detect early warning signals of market instability.
This review examines EWSs in finance to prevent economic crises.
TDA detects financial bubbles through early warning signals.
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies stock market crises according to an indicator function with thresholds dynamicall…
Study improves early warning models for currency and stock market crises.
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockc…
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. Many stock prediction studies focus on using macroeconomic indicators, such as CPI and GDP, to train the prediction model. However…
Study uses satellite data to predict tailings dam collapse risk.
SRR detects early signs of financial crises using multi-layer graphs.
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Study forecasts food security trends using real-time data.
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets. Overall, in this work we developed various metrics associated with catastrophic bifurca…
Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In o…
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute cri…
Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network is in a state of (quasi)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth stru…
Team aims to predict particulate matter levels on ISS using Bi-GRU.
Method detects lithium-ion battery knee onset for early warning.
Extended PELCoV for bivariate Student-t copulas to monitor foreign exchange risk.
Machine learning improves early detection of patient deterioration in Brazilian hospitals.
On the fifth of February, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,175.21 points, the largest single-day fall in history in raw point terms. This followed a 666-point loss on the second, and another drop of over a thousand points occurred three days later. It is natural to ask whether these events indicate a tr…
HyPV-LEAD detects cryptocurrency anomalies proactively, improving financial security.
Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of…
Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimu…
Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warni…
The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly inter…
With pressure to increase graduation rates and reduce time to degree in higher education, it is important to identify at-risk students early. Automated early warning systems are therefore highly desirable. In this paper, we use unsupervised clustering techniques to predict the graduation status of declared majors in fi…
Project forecasts liquidity withdrawal using machine learning models.
In the monitoring of a complex electric grid, it is of paramount importance to provide operators with early warnings of anomalies detected on the network, along with a precise classification and diagnosis of the specific fault type. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-stage early warning system prototype for electr…
New method detects bearing faults using multivariate statistical process control.
A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of collapses and/or crises. Existing works focus mainly on the network structure within…
The Basel II Accords have sparked increased interest in the development of approaches based on internal ratings systems and have initiated the elaboration of models for remote ratings forecasts based on external ones as part of Risk Management and Early Warning Systems. This article evaluates the peculiarities of curre…
Intensive care clinicians are presented with large quantities of patient information and measurements from a multitude of monitoring systems. The limited ability of humans to process such complex information hinders physicians to readily recognize and act on early signs of patient deterioration. We used machine learnin…
Pearson correlation and mutual information based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of US S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed in order to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We show that both networks detect qualitative differences especially during (recent)…
Study predicts market bubbles using machine learning and financial news sentiment.
Detecting weak clustered signal in spatial data is important but challenging in applications such as medical image and epidemiology. A more efficient detection algorithm can provide more precise early warning, and effectively reduce the decision risk and cost. To date, many methods have been developed to detect signals…
The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to introduce a topological component into the analysis, taking into account consiste…
CNMs detect tipping points in complex systems using causal network markers.
This document describes an approach to the problem of predicting dangerous seismic events in active coal mines up to 8 hours in advance. It was developed as a part of the AAIA'16 Data Mining Challenge: Predicting Dangerous Seismic Events in Active Coal Mines. The solutions presented consist of ensembles of various pred…
Analyzes gaming in federated learning systems and provides design principles.
The paper introduces a framework to assess nonlinear causality in financial markets.