We demonstrate the possibility of classifying causal systems into kinds that share a common structure without first constructing an explicit dynamical model or using prior knowledge of the system dynamics. The algorithmic ability to determine whether arbitrary systems are governed by causal relations of the same form o…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “dynamical significance”
High-velocity streams of high-dimensional data pose significant "big data" analysis challenges across a range of applications and settings. Online learning and online convex programming play a significant role in the rapid recovery of important or anomalous information from these large datastreams. While recent advance…
New algorithm tracks changes in infinite action space rewards.
problem Non-stationary Lipschitz bandits with infinite actions.
method Adaptive tracking of significant shifts using hierarchical discretization.
result Achieves minimax-optimal dynamic regret bound of .
New method tracks significant shifts in nonparametric bandits.
problem Tracking significant changes in nonparametric contextual bandits.
method Proposed a notion of 'experienced significant shifts' to adapt to minimax rate without knowledge of change parameters.
result Experienced significant shifts count fewer changes than traditional metrics, leading to an adaptive algorithm.
Stretched and measured neural predictions of complex network dynamicscond-mat.stat-mech
Neural networks improve predictions of complex network dynamics.
problem Improving neural network predictions for complex network dynamics.
method Extended neural network models to complex systems, ensuring they conform to dynamical model assumptions and using a statistical significance test.
result Achieved advanced generalization of neural network predictions for complex systems.
We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return distributions can substantially deviate from the asymptotic Gaussian limit for very long ho…
This paper assesses the role of financial performance in explaining firms' investment dynamics in the wine industry from the three European Union (EU) largest producers. The wine sector deserves special attention to investigate firms' investment behavior given the high competition imposed by the latecomers. More precis…
This study develops a multi-factor framework where not only market risk is considered but also potential changes in the investment opportunity set. Although previous studies find no clear evidence about a positive and significant relation between return and risk, favourable evidence can be obtained if a non-linear rela…
Parametric identification of the dynamics of inter-sectoral balance: modelling and forecastingmath.DS
This work is devoted to modelling and identification of the dynamics of the inter-sectoral balance of a macroeconomic system. An approach to the problem of specification and identification of a weakly formalized dynamical system is developed. A matching procedure for parameters of a linear stationary Cauchy problem wit…
Utilizing Effective Dynamic Graph Learning to Shield Financial Stability from Risk Propagationq-fin.RM
GraphShield uses dynamic graph learning to detect and visualize financial risks.
problem Detecting and mitigating risks in financial networks.
method Enhanced Cross-Domain Information Learning, Advanced Risk Recognition, Risk Propagation Visualization.
result GraphShield effectively identifies and visualizes hidden financial risks.
Process Monitoring involves tracking a system's behaviors, evaluating the current state of the system, and discovering interesting events that require immediate actions. In this paper, we consider monitoring temporal system state sequences to help detect the changes of dynamic systems, check the divergence of the syste…
Study on tracking preference shifts in dueling bandits problems.
problem Tracking significant preference shifts in dueling bandits problems.
method Analysis of dueling bandits with distribution shifts, focusing on significant shifts (Suk and Kpotufe, 2022).
result Design of adaptive algorithms with dynamic regret for certain preference distribution classes.
A new flow-based Bayesian filter tackles high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems.
problem Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear systems is challenging due to non-Gaussian distributions and computational limitations.
method Integrates normalizing flows to construct a latent linear state-space model with efficient density estimation and sampling.
result Demonstrates superior accuracy and efficiency in numerical experiments.
Using Deep Operators to Create Spatio-temporal Surrogates for Dynamical Systems under Uncertaintystat.ML
DeepONets enhance spatial-temporal surrogates for structural dynamics.
problem Creating full spatial-temporal surrogates for dynamical systems under uncertainty.
method Proposed Full-Field Extended DeepONet (FExD) to learn full solution operator across multiple degrees of freedom.
result FExD achieves superior accuracy and computational efficiency compared to other models.
Study finds significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges after FTX collapse.
problem Quantifying trust dynamics and redistribution between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
method Interdisciplinary approach combining causal inference and computational text analysis.
result Significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges following the FTX collapse.
Study uses RL to optimize dynamic portfolios, addressing non-stationarity and constraints.
problem Non-stationarity and investment constraints in dynamic portfolio optimization.
method Reinforcement learning with regime change variables and practical constraints integration.
result Enhanced prediction accuracy through incorporation of regime change variables.
This paper presents preliminary work on learning the search heuristic for the optimal motion planning for automated driving in urban traffic. Previous work considered search-based optimal motion planning framework (SBOMP) that utilized numerical or model-based heuristics that did not consider dynamic obstacles. Optimal…
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point correlations in the returns of several leading currency exchange rates that could offer so…
A new method combines predictors and their lags using supervised PCA for dynamic forecasting.
problem Dynamic forecasting with many predictors.
method Supervised PCA with re-scaling and penalized methods.
result The method outperforms traditional PCA and diffusion-index approaches in prediction.
New method tracks significant arm switches to improve bandit algorithms.
problem Adaptive procedures for bandits with unknown changes in reward distribution.
method Proposes a new notion of significant shift to count severe changes.
result Achieves faster rates than previous methods, especially when few changes are severe.
The vast majority of market impact studies assess each product individually, and the interactions between the different order flows are disregarded. This strong approximation may lead to an underestimation of trading costs and possible contagion effects. Transactions in fact mediate a significant part of the correlatio…
There is more and more empirical evidence that multifractality constitutes another and perhaps the most significant financial stylized fact. A realistic model of the financial dynamics should therefore incorporate this effect. The most promising in this respect is the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns (MMAR) introduc…
Dynamic functional time-series methods improve forecast accuracy for foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets.
method Dynamic functional principal component analysis and multivariate functional time-series methods.
result Dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy.
The mesoscopic organization of complex systems, from financial markets to the brain, is an intermediate between the microscopic dynamics of individual units (stocks or neurons, in the mentioned cases), and the macroscopic dynamics of the system as a whole. The organization is determined by "communities" of units whose …
Spectral clustering is a widely studied problem, yet its complexity is prohibitive for dynamic graphs of even modest size. We claim that it is possible to reuse information of past cluster assignments to expedite computation. Our approach builds on a recent idea of sidestepping the main bottleneck of spectral clusterin…
Framework learns image dynamics between time steps using latent variables.
problem Challenges in capturing evolving image patterns and temporal information.
method Estimates intermediary image stages using a physical latent variable model.
result Demonstrates robustness and effectiveness in geoscientific imagery.
AUASE embeds dynamic networks with stability guarantees for node comparison.
problem Stability in dynamic network embeddings for comparing nodes across time.
method Attributed unfolded adjacency spectral embedding (AUASE) for stable unsupervised learning.
result AUASE provides significant improvements in link prediction and node classification.
New deep learning method improves financial stress testing accuracy.
problem Traditional stress testing methods are criticized for unrealistic assumptions and estimation errors.
method Proposes a novel Deep Learning approach for Dynamic Balance Sheet Stress Testing.
result Empirical results show significant improvement in accuracy over traditional methods.
The paper examines spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon, and climate markets.
problem Understanding dynamic spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission, and climate markets.
method A novel decomposed connectedness approach.
result Overall spillovers are mainly contemporaneous, not lagged; climate change significantly impacts others; agricultural markets have heterogeneous effects; corn is a major risk contributor.
We extend the common Poisson shock framework reviewed for example in Lindskog and McNeil (2003) to a formulation avoiding repeated defaults, thus obtaining a model that can account consistently for single name default dynamics, cluster default dynamics and default counting process. This approach allows one to introduce…
Using the fractional integration and differentiation on R we build the fractional jet fibre bundle on a differentiable manifold and we emphasize some important geometrical objects. Euler-Lagrange fractional equations are described. Some significant examples from mechanics and economics are presented.
New connection between dynamics and Heegaard Floer homology.
problem Understanding pseudo-Anosov flows and their dynamics.
method Using Heegaard Floer homology and veering branched surfaces, the paper constructs a chain complex to categorify the zeta function of a pseudo-Anosov flow.
result Generators of the chain complex correspond to closed multi-orbits of the flow, and their homology classes have dynamical significance.
The study analyzes XRP transaction networks to understand market dynamics.
problem Understanding market dynamics of XRP through transaction data.
method Weekly weighted directed networks are embedded into a vector space using network embedding techniques. A correlation tensor is calculated and analyzed using singular value decomposition.
result The correlation tensor provides insights into the system's behavior and dependence on model parameters.
Dynamic time warping (DTW) can be used to compute the similarity between two sequences of generally differing length. We propose a modification to DTW that performs individual and independent pairwise alignment of feature trajectories. The modified technique, termed feature trajectory dynamic time warping (FTDTW), is a…
Transformers learn to integrate information from past positions incrementally, specializing heads in distinct patterns.
problem How transformers learn to integrate information from multiple past positions with varying statistical significance.
method High-order Markov chain task, incremental learning, sparse attention patterns, simplified differential equations, stage-wise convergence, early stopping as regularizer.
result Transformers learn to specialize heads in distinct patterns, shifting from competitive to cooperative learning dynamics.
We provide a new theoretical analysis framework to investigate online gradient descent in the dynamic environment. Comparing with the previous work, the new framework recovers the state-of-the-art dynamic regret, but does not require extra gradient queries for every iteration. Specifically, when functions are stron…
Solving Newton's Equations of Motion with Large Timesteps using Recurrent Neural Networks based Operatorsphysics.comp-ph
RNN operators solve Newton's equations with large timesteps for molecular dynamics.
problem Solving Newton's equations of motion with large timesteps for molecular dynamics simulations.
method Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) operators to solve Newton's equations using past trajectory data.
result Significant speedup in molecular dynamics simulations with timesteps up to 4000 times larger.
New approach to concentration inequalities for unbounded state space dynamical systems.
problem Concentration inequalities for unbounded state space dynamical systems.
method Functional analytic framework, transport-entropy inequality.
result Exponential concentration inequalities for sampling from stationary distribution.
Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics has posed significant challenges in practice. We develop a novel online learning f…
Learning latent representations of nodes in graphs is an important and ubiquitous task with widespread applications such as link prediction, node classification, and graph visualization. Previous methods on graph representation learning mainly focus on static graphs, however, many real-world graphs are dynamic and evol…
Whereas subriemannian geometry usually deals with smooth horizontal distributions, partially hyperbolic dynamical systems provide many examples of subriemannian geometries defined by non-smooth (namely, Hölder continuous) distributions. These distributions are of great significance for the behavior of the parent dynami…
FLUID-LLM: Learning Computational Fluid Dynamics with Spatiotemporal-aware Large Language Modelscs.LG
FLUID-LLM uses LLMs to predict fluid dynamics with improved accuracy.
problem Leveraging LLMs for CFD due to their pattern recognition abilities but struggles with fluid dynamics complexities.
method Combines pre-trained LLMs with spatiotemporal-aware encoding to predict unsteady fluid dynamics.
result Significant performance improvements in CFD predictions across various datasets.
Introduces GFC for learning complex dynamical systems with geometric constraints.
problem Challenges in accurately modeling and predicting complex dynamical systems with geometric constraints.
method Geometric Contact Flows (GFC) using Riemannian and Contact geometry as inductive biases.
result Ensemble of contactomorphisms adapt the latent contact Hamiltonian model to target dynamics while preserving desirable properties.
StreamEnsemble dynamically selects ML models for ST data streams to improve predictive accuracy.
problem Predictive queries over spatiotemporal data streams are challenging due to varying distributions and patterns.
method Dynamic selection and allocation of ML models based on time series distributions and characteristics.
result Significantly outperforms traditional ensemble and single model approaches, reducing prediction error by over 10 times.
In unsupervised learning, there is no apparent straightforward cost function that can capture the significant factors of variations and similarities. Since natural systems have smooth dynamics, an opportunity is lost if an unsupervised objective function remains static during the training process. The absence of concre…
PNDEs project neural dynamics onto constraint manifolds, improving accuracy and stability.
problem Learning dynamics from data without violating known constraints.
method Projecting the learned vector field onto the tangent space of the constraint manifold.
result PNDEs outperform existing methods in learning constrained dynamical systems.
Optimized DMD for fast atmospheric chemistry forecasting.
problem Forecasting global atmospheric chemistry dynamics efficiently.
method Optimized Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) for reduced order modeling.
result Significant improvement in computational speed and interpretability.
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market prices is modeled on a macro-level as the result of the dynamic coupling of two dyn…