Method learns dynamics of slow variables from stochastic data.
problem Modeling unknown multiscale stochastic systems with limited data.
method Data-driven approach to learn effective dynamics from bursts of observation data.
result Generative model accurately captures effective dynamics of slow variables.
Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
problem Capturing complex nonlinear dynamics in neural time series while maintaining interpretability.
method Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS) that balances expressiveness and interpretability.
result Favorable performance in comparison to rSLDS on synthetic and real neuroscience data.
Dynamic risk assessment method for WUI fires improves upon static frameworks.
problem Static risk assessment methods fail to capture dynamic changes in WUI fire risks.
method Dynamic evaluation matrix, grey incidence analysis, optimization model.
result The proposed method effectively captures dynamic risk evolution patterns.
New method learns dynamics from sparse data using geometric constraints.
problem Learning dynamics from sparse, undersampled data.
method Reformulates inference as a stochastic control problem, using geometry-driven path augmentation.
result Accurately recovers stochastic dynamics from extremely undersampled data.
Proposes neural dynamic mode decomposition for end-to-end modeling of nonlinear dynamics.
problem Understanding and modeling nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Trains neural networks to minimize forecast error based on spectral decomposition in the lifted space.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in eigenvalue estimation and forecast performance.
Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
problem Data-driven modeling of multistep stochastic dynamics.
method Adversarial learning with GANs and MMD for stable model classes.
result Stable generative models for long-time prediction and stochastic systems.
Method reconstructs networks from contagion dynamics.
problem Fitting contagion models assumes simple dynamics, ignoring complex contagions.
method Nonparametric method to reconstruct network and dynamics from node states.
result Networks are easier to reconstruct through complex contagions in dense or saturated networks.
Paper introduces a novel method for dynamic covariance estimation with random forests.
problem Estimating high-dimensional dynamic covariance matrices with multiple covariates.
method Nonparametric approach using random forests.
result Uniform consistency theory and error rates established for high-dimensional scenarios.
Realizations of stochastic process are often observed temporal data or functional data. There are growing interests in classification of dynamic or functional data. The basic feature of functional data is that the functional data have infinite dimensions and are highly correlated. An essential issue for classifying dyn…
New method identifies network dynamics and noise structure.
problem Estimating network and disturbance topologies in dynamic systems.
method Extended multi-step Sequential Linear Regression and Weighted Null Space Fitting methods.
result Consistent estimation of dynamic networks with reduced computational burden.
This work introduces a method to learn dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements using multiple shooting.
problem Learning dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements is challenging due to system instability.
method A scalable method based on multiple shooting.
result Robust learning of latent representations of dynamical systems from noisy measurements.
Novel method models dynamic brain graphs from time series data.
problem Generating hypotheses for dynamic brain states.
method Conditionally weighted superposition of static graphs.
result Improves f1-scores by 22-28% on average over baselines.
Network representation learning in low dimensional vector space has attracted considerable attention in both academic and industrial domains. Most real-world networks are dynamic with addition/deletion of nodes and edges. The existing graph embedding methods are designed for static networks and they cannot capture evol…
NDS learns dynamical models with prior knowledge, improving accuracy and efficiency.
problem Learning accurate dynamical models with limited data and varying dynamics.
method Neural Dynamical Systems (NDS) integrates prior knowledge in ODEs with neural networks to estimate parameters and predict states.
result NDS achieves higher accuracy and uses fewer samples compared to other methods.
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
problem Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes using historical observational data when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Utilizes proximal causal inference framework to propose three nonparametric identification methods, a (K+1)-robust method, and establish a semiparametric efficiency bound.
result Establishes the (K+1)-robust method for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes, validating its efficiency and multiple robustness through numerical experiments.
GD-VAEs learn dynamics from observations using geometric and topological information.
problem Learning parsimonious representations of nonlinear dynamics from observations.
method Develops data-driven methods incorporating geometric and topological information using Variational Autoencoders (VAEs).
result GD-VAEs provide methods for learning reduced dimensional representations of nonlinear dynamics.
Dynamic functional time-series methods improve forecast accuracy for foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets.
method Dynamic functional principal component analysis and multivariate functional time-series methods.
result Dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy.
We address the issue of estimating the topology and dynamics of sparse linear dynamic networks in a hyperparameter-free setting. We propose a method to estimate the network dynamics in a computationally efficient and parameter tuning-free iterative framework known as SPICE (Sparse Iterative Covariance Estimation). The …
Study on liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools using statistical methods.
problem Characterize liquidity in Uniswap v3 pools.
method Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and dynamic factor methods.
result Liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools are well-captured by a low-order Legendre polynomial basis.
Stabilized neural differential equations enforce constraints on dynamical systems.
problem Ensuring dynamical systems preserve known constraints like conservation laws.
method SNDEs with a stabilization term to enforce manifold constraints.
result SNDEs outperform existing methods and broaden constraint types.
This paper explores the dependence modeling of financial assets in a dynamic way and its critical role in measuring risk. Two new methods, called Accelerated Moving Window method and Bottom-up method are proposed to detect the change of copula. The performance of these two methods together with Binary Segmentation \cit…
Analog forecasting uses local dynamics to predict chaotic systems.
problem Theoretical connections between analog forecasting and dynamical systems are overlooked.
method Local approximations of the system's dynamics, linear regression, and estimation of analog forecasting errors.
result Analog forecasting performances are highly linked to the local Jacobian matrix of the flow map.
A method models nonlinear dynamics from data using barycentric coordinates and memory.
problem Modeling complex dynamical systems from data.
method SPA for data projection, barycentric coordinates, delay-embedding theorem for memory.
result Stable models of chaotic dynamics and attractors are reproduced.
We propose a method to infer stochastic low-rank RNNs from neural data.
problem Fitting low-rank RNNs to noisy, stochastic neural data.
method Variational sequential Monte Carlo methods for stochastic low-rank RNNs.
result Lower dimensional latent dynamics compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Proposes dynamic borrowing method for historical data in clinical trials.
problem Insufficient statistical power in rare and pediatric disease clinical trials.
method Dynamic borrowing method based on frequentist approach using similarity measures.
result Demonstrates usefulness of dynamic borrowing in reanalyzing clinical trial data.
Temporal-difference (TD) networks are a class of predictive state representations that use well-established TD methods to learn models of partially observable dynamical systems. Previous research with TD networks has dealt only with dynamical systems with finite sets of observations and actions. We present an algorithm…
Deep learning predicts dynamics from sparse data.
problem Predicting spatiotemporal dynamics from sparse data.
method Spatially dimension-independent deep learning framework.
result Predicts dynamics from sparse data sites.
New method uses dynamic programming for meta continual learning.
problem Challenges of generalization and catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
method Developed a theoretical framework using dynamic programming for meta continual learning.
result Theoretical and practical method achieves better accuracy than existing methods.
This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total a…
A framework for stable dynamic network embeddings using static methods.
problem Dynamic network embedding in a nascent field.
method Using static network embedding methods on dilated unfolded adjacency matrices.
result Stable embeddings that preserve latent node behavior across time.
Graph Neural Network improves causal inference in dynamic systems.
problem Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series.
method Graph Neural Network approach with score-based method.
result Graph Neural Network significantly outperformed other methods in dynamic Bayesian network inference.
It is known that the Langevin dynamics used in MCMC is the gradient flow of the KL divergence on the Wasserstein space, which helps convergence analysis and inspires recent particle-based variational inference methods (ParVIs). But no more MCMC dynamics is understood in this way. In this work, by developing novel conce…
A new method combines predictors and their lags using supervised PCA for dynamic forecasting.
problem Dynamic forecasting with many predictors.
method Supervised PCA with re-scaling and penalized methods.
result The method outperforms traditional PCA and diffusion-index approaches in prediction.
Ensembles dynamic models using random feature approximations.
problem Online scalable Bayesian learning with dynamic models and ensembling.
method Random feature approximations and dynamic models using random walks.
result Better performance with alternative basis expansions like Hilbert space Gaussian processes.
A new method uses higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping for better generative modeling.
problem Improving generative models using Langevin dynamics with auxiliary variables.
method Introducing higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping, providing closed-form solutions.
result Improved generative models with better performance as measured by FID metric.
In this paper, we introduce a novel method to interpret recurrent neural networks (RNNs), particularly long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) at the cellular level. We propose a systematic pipeline for interpreting individual hidden state dynamics within the network using response characterization methods. The ranked …
New method learns population dynamics from snapshots, outperforming existing models.
problem Capturing periodic and other dynamical properties of population dynamics.
method Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics (WLM) for learning second-order dynamics from observed marginals.
result WLM outperforms existing methods across various dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.
New algorithm models satiation in recommender systems.
problem Satiation effects in user preferences not modeled by existing algorithms.
method Rebounding bandits, modeling satiation as time-invariant linear dynamical systems.
result Greedy policy optimal for identical deterministic dynamics; EEP algorithm for stochastic dynamics.
LOCAL learns dynamic causal structures from time series data efficiently.
problem Challenges in discovering DAG from time series data due to dynamic nature and nonlinear interactions.
method LOCAL proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function and adaptive modules ACML and DGPL.
result LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods in dynamic causal discovery.
LD-EnSF speeds up data assimilation with sparse observations.
problem Efficiently assimilate sparse and noisy data into complex dynamical systems.
method LD-EnSF uses latent dynamics networks and history-aware LSTM encoders to process sparse observations without full-space simulations.
result Achieves significant speedups over existing methods while maintaining high accuracy.
New method models complex dynamics using a base variable.
problem Modeling complex high-frequency dynamics from time series.
method Constructing a joint model with a base variable and a target variable.
result Successfully models chaotic behavior and reconstructs statistical properties.
Proposes a method to prove closing of periodic orbits in dynamical systems.
problem Proving generic dynamical systems have finite periodic orbits.
method Perturbation method for Cr closing of periodic orbits. result Validates the conjecture for generic dynamical systems.
Proposes DLGPD model to learn dynamics from images for planning.
problem Planning in unknown, indirectly observable environments.
method Deep latent Gaussian process dynamics model trained jointly with neural networks.
result Demonstrates improved data efficiency and transfer learning.
Neural dynamical systems are dynamical systems that are described at least in part by neural networks. The class of continuous-time neural dynamical systems must, however, be numerically integrated for simulation and learning. Here, we present a compact neural circuit for two common numerical integrators: the explicit …
Extends pricing methods for index options under rough volatility.
problem Pricing and hedging of index options under non-Markovian dynamics.
method Extension of large deviations methods to non-local volatility dynamics, specifically rough volatility.
result Validates the approach for pricing index options under rough volatility.
This paper improves volatility forecasting using dynamic subset selection in genetic programming.
problem Improving accuracy of implied volatility forecasting.
method Dynamic training-subset selection methods applied to genetic programming.
result Dynamic subset selection improves predictive accuracy of genetic programming models.
FNSDA adapts to new dynamics via Fourier space adaptation.
problem Generalizing to unseen dynamical systems with limited data.
method Automatic partitioning of known environments in Fourier modes and adaptation of specific modes for new environments.
result FNSDA achieves superior or competitive generalization performance with reduced parameter cost.
Proposes a method to improve few-shot transfer in off-dynamics RL.
problem Traditional RL struggles with transferring policies between environments with different dynamics.
method Introduces a penalty to regulate source-trained policies in target environments with limited data.
result Improves performance in various off-dynamics RL scenarios compared to existing methods.