A framework models order book dynamics using point processes and mass transport.
problem Capturing the complex dynamics of limit order books.
method Combines spatial point process for order flow and mass transport operator for market clearing.
result Provides insights into the interplay between order flow and price dynamics.
In this paper we derive a scaling limit for an infinite dimensional limit order book model driven by Hawkes random measures. The dynamics of the incoming order flow is allowed to depend on the current market price as well as on a volume indicator. With our choice of scaling the dynamics converges to a coupled SDE-ODE s…
The paper analyzes SGD in high-dimensional networks, revealing new scaling limits.
problem Understanding SGD dynamics in high-dimensional networks.
method Analyzing the effective dynamics of SGD using recent work on the subject.
result A new correction term emerges at the critical scaling regime, changing the phase diagram.
Paper approximates solutions for complex decision processes with limited precision.
problem Approximating the set of all solutions for Multi-objective Markov Decision Processes.
method Limited precision approach based on White's multi-objective value-iteration dynamic programming algorithm.
result The number of calculated solutions is tractable and approximates the true Pareto front.
This work's purpose is to understand the dynamics of limit order books in order-driven markets. We try to illustrate a dynamical trading mechanism attached to the microstructure of limit order markets. We capture the iterative nature of trading processes, which is critical in the dynamics of bid-ask pairs and the switc…
We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the intraday dynamics of the…
We propose a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, extending the recent work of Cont and de Larrard (2013), where the price dynamics are endogenous, resulting from market transactions. We also show that the conditional diffusion limit of the price process is the so-called Brownian meander.
Analysis of SGD for Gaussian mixture classification using dynamical mean-field theory.
problem Learning dynamics of SGD for a neural network classifying Gaussian mixture.
method Applying dynamical mean-field theory to track SGD dynamics in high dimensions.
result Reveals how SGD navigates the non-convex loss landscape.
Study on order book dynamics with uniform catastrophes, explaining volatility and trends.
problem Understanding volatility and trends in financial markets with different types of liquidity.
method Stochastic models and population processes with uniform catastrophes.
result Law of large numbers, central limit theorem, and large deviations proved for the model.
This paper derives a diffusion approximation for a sequence of discrete-time one-sided limit order book models with non-linear state dependent order arrival and cancellation dynamics. The discrete time sequences are specified in terms of an R+-valued best bid price process and an Lloc2-valued volume process. …
Paper proposes an online anomaly detection method for real-time systems.
problem Rare events endanger profitability, safety, and environmental aspects.
method Online inverse cumulative distribution-based approach with dynamic process limits.
result Eliminates common problems of offline anomaly detectors and provides low-latency detection.
A novel Hawkes Process model captures order sizes in LOBs, improving fit quality and market impact studies.
problem Capturing the variability in order sizes in Limit Order Books (LOBs).
method Compound Hawkes Process with time-varying parameters and non-parametric calibration.
result Improved fit quality and empirical market impact function replication.
RAID algorithm detects anomalies in real-time IoT systems.
problem Anomaly detection limitations in multivariate dynamic processes.
method Adapts to non-stationary effects and handles data drift.
result Improved detection accuracy and root cause isolation.
Infinitesimal boosting converges to a deterministic process in large sample limit.
problem Characterizing the asymptotic behavior of infinitesimal gradient boosting in large sample sizes.
method Proving convergence to a deterministic process using large sample theory and differential equations.
result The test error decreases over time in the population limit.
Model for cross-border markets with limited transmission capacities.
problem Limited transmission capacities between two countries' markets.
method Developed a regime-switching process model with high-frequency approximation.
result Analytic tractability allows computation of key market quantities.
A new algebraic framework models LOBs with physics and stochastic processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of limit order books (LOBs).
method Algebraic framework using Dirac notation and generating functions.
result Exact simulations of market scenarios using the Gillespie algorithm.
Study dynamics of alternating minimization for bilinear regression under large system limits.
problem Understanding the time evolution of alternating minimization for bilinear regression.
method Replica method applied to a multi-temperature glassy system.
result Dynamics of alternating minimization can be described by a two-dimensional discrete stochastic process.
Risk measures applied to dynamic Markov processes with varying risk aversion.
problem Investigating dynamic risk measures in Markov decision processes with varying risk aversion.
method Distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, applied to Markov decision processes with latent costs and random actions.
result Existence of optimal policies in finite and infinite time horizons under mild assumptions.
We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/ excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior an…
Study shows neural networks trained with GD converge to Gaussian processes with polynomial decay.
problem Understanding convergence of neural networks to Gaussian processes during training.
method Explicit upper bounds on quadratic Wasserstein distance between trained networks and Gaussian approximations.
result Polynomial decay of approximation error with network width and training time.
We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process in which point process jumps generate a shot-noise intensity field. Unlike the Ha…
Order positions are key variables in algorithmic trading. This paper studies the limiting behavior of order positions and related queues in a limit order book. In addition to the fluid and diffusion limits for the processes, fluctuations of order positions and related queues around their fluid limits are analyzed. As a…
We examine the dynamics of the bid and ask queues of a limit order book and their relationship with the intensity of trade arrivals. In particular, we study the probability of price movements and trade arrivals as a function of the quote imbalance at the top of the limit order book. We propose a stochastic model in an …
The paper develops a new model for order book dynamics using Hawkes processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of order flow and liquidity migration in financial markets.
method Develops a mesoscopic model using Hawkes processes to describe interactions between order arrivals, cancellations, and liquidity movement.
result Derives a diffusive limit for the order book dynamics, providing a unified framework for market microstructure.
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
Paper proposes a method to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly.
problem Limited joint estimation of multiple dynamic quantiles.
method Introduces a crossing penalty objective function for joint estimation.
result Validation through Monte Carlo experiments and empirical application on FTSE100 shows effectiveness.
Using microscopic price models based on Hawkes processes, it has been shown that under some no-arbitrage condition, the high degree of endogeneity of markets together with the phenomenon of metaorders splitting generate rough Heston-type volatility at the macroscopic scale. One additional important feature of financial…
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantit…
Neural model accelerates SDDP for stochastic optimization.
problem Exponential complexity of SDDP limits its applicability to low-dimensional problems.
method Trainable neural model maps problem instances to a low-dimensional piecewise linear value function.
result ν-SDDP significantly reduces problem solving cost without sacrificing solution quality.
Optimally explores dynamical systems with varying properties using context inference.
problem Learning dynamics models for systems with varying properties.
method Formulates dynamics models as stochastic processes conditioned on a latent context variable inferred from system transitions. Uses probabilistic formulation to compute optimal action sequences for exploration.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the method on non-linear toy-problems and reinforcement learning environments.
Service system dynamics occur at the interplay between customer behaviour and a service provider's response. This kind of dynamics can effectively be modeled within the framework of queuing theory where customers' arrivals are described by point process models. However, these approaches are limited by parametric assump…
Sequential processing biases asset allocation in artificial stock markets.
problem Systematic bias in asset allocation due to sequential processing of order books.
method Examined the impact of sequential versus parallel clearing mechanisms on multi-asset price dynamics.
result Sequential processing introduces a significant bias affecting the allocation of traders' capital.
We propose an analytically tractable class of models for the dynamics of a limit order book, described through a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with multiplicative noise for the order book centered at the mid-price, along with stochastic dynamics for the mid-price which is consistent with the order flo…
We propose a framework for studying optimal market making policies in a limit order book (LOB). The bid-ask spread of the LOB is modelled by a Markov chain with finite values, multiple of the tick size, and subordinated by the Poisson process of the tick-time clock. We consider a small agent who continuously submits li…
A novel model learns from limited data using physics constraints and GPVAE to generate realistic samples.
problem Limited data for effective generative AI training.
method Physics-informed Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoder (PIGPVAE) incorporating physical models and discrepancy terms.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on indoor temperature data.
Generative models accelerate molecular dynamics by four orders of magnitude.
problem Femtosecond time steps limit access to slow molecular processes.
method Deep generative modeling framework that accelerates sampling.
result Quantitative characterization of equilibrium ensembles and dynamical relaxation processes.
e-GGPs learn graph vertex transitions over time.
problem Static graph Gaussian Processes cannot handle dynamic graph structures.
method Proposes e-GGPs with a transition function and neighbourhood kernel.
result e-GGPs outperform static GGPs on time-series regression.
Develops CLDS models to model neural activity with nonlinear dynamics.
problem Complex, nonlinear dynamics in neural population activity.
method Conditionally Linear Dynamical System (CLDS) models using Gaussian Process (GP) priors.
result CLDS models can perform well even in data-limited conditions.
This paper uses entropy to derive stock price dynamics and option valuation.
problem Deriving stock price dynamics and option valuation from information constraints.
method Develops an entropic inference framework to derive stochastic processes from information constraints, representing price changes through two channels: continuous and jump.
result The derived dynamics is the Merton jump diffusion, with Geometric Brownian Motion as the no jump limit.
Model stock price dynamics using semi-Markov processes.
problem Model stock price dynamics through a semi-Markov process.
method Use semi-Markov process with Poisson random measure, establish existence and uniqueness of solution, derive HJB equation.
result Obtain expressions for optimal controls and value function using HJB equation.
In this paper, we establish a fluid limit for a two--sided Markov order book model. Our main result states that in a certain asymptotic regime, a pair of measure-valued processes representing the "sell-side shape" and "buy-side shape" of an order book converges to a pair of deterministic measure-valued processes in a c…
ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.
problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.
Develops a dynamic mean field theory for reinforcement learning.
problem Finite state and action Bayesian reinforcement learning in large state spaces.
method Analogies with statistical physics, interpreting probabilities as couplings and values as spins, solving mean field equations.
result State-action values are statistically independent in the asymptotic state space limit, with exact or approximate equations for computation.
A Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation framework for large continuous dynamical systems
problem Forecasting complex dynamical systems
method Kernel autonomous ODE approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction
result Full model outperforms ROM methods in terms of accuracy or computational costs
Extends DRFGP to make GPs more robust and adaptive for dynamic, noisy data.
problem Limited scalability, static targets, and brittleness to outliers in GPs.
method Introduces robust-filtering update and dynamic adaptation mechanism.
result Enhanced stability and accuracy in modeling dynamic, noisy data.
Study of LQ MFGs in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces.
problem Mean field games in infinite-dimensional settings with stochastic dynamics.
method Analysis of coupled semilinear infinite-dimensional stochastic evolution equations, development of Nash equilibrium.
result Characterization of unique Nash equilibrium in the limit of many agents.
DEMOTE uses neural diffusion-reaction processes to capture temporal dynamics in sparse tensor data.
problem Sparse and temporally associated tensor data with limited structural knowledge.
method Develops a neural diffusion-reaction process to estimate dynamic embeddings for tensor modes.
result Captures both commonalities and personalities in evolving tensor entries.
New metrics using Laplace approximation improve Gaussian process model selection.
problem Finding a balance between model accuracy, interpretability, and simplicity.
method Introducing multiple metrics based on the Laplace approximation to evaluate Gaussian process models.
result Our metrics provide comparable performance to dynamic nested sampling but are significantly faster.