The paper models market crashes as phase transitions, finding dynamic transitions offer better predictions.
problem Understanding and predicting extreme financial events like market crashes.
method Employing phase transition theory, focusing on endogenous crashes, and comparing DPT, CPT, and SPT.
result Dynamic phase transitions provide more accurate predictions of market crashes compared to critical and stochastic models.
Enhances neural network dynamics to boost computational capacity.
problem Improving computational capacity of neural networks.
method Introducing Phase Transition Adaptation to drive system dynamics towards edge of stability.
result Consistently achieves enhancement in computational capacity over multiple datasets.
We study the phase transition of dynamical herd behaviors for the yen-dollar exchange rate in the Japanese financial market. It is obtained that the probability distribution of returns satisfies the power-law behavior with three different values of the scaling exponent 3.11 (one time lag τ = 1 minute), 2.81 (30 minut…
Generative diffusion models exhibit phase transitions in statistical mechanics, impacting their performance.
problem Understanding the performance and capabilities of generative diffusion models.
method Reformulating generative diffusion models using statistical mechanics, focusing on phase transitions and symmetry breaking.
result Generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions with mean-field universality, critical instability, and mean-field critical exponents.
New model explains market dynamics with phase transitions and non-linear interactions.
problem Understanding complex multi-asset market dynamics with phase transitions.
method Developed a Multi-Asset Non-Equilibrium Skew (MANES) model based on Langevin dynamics and McKean-Vlasov equation.
result The model accurately predicts market returns and phase transitions in both benign and distressed markets.
We find numerical and empirical evidence for dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on the (German) Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE) in the temporal vicinity of the worldwide financial crash. Using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) technique, a particularly useful canonical tool of the graph theory, two tr…
We present a simple model of firm rating evolution. We consider two sources of defaults: individual dynamics of economic development and Potts-like interactions between firms. We show that such a defined model leads to phase transition, which results in collective defaults. The existence of the collective phase depends…
The stability of money value is an important requisite for a functioning economy, yet it critically depends on the actions of participants in the market themselves. Here we model the value of money as a dynamical variable that results from trading between agents. The basic trading scenario can be recast into an Ising t…
LoRA fine-tuning causes forgetting, studied via particle system dynamics.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in LoRA fine-tuning.
method Mean-field self-attention model, partial differential equations, dynamical systems.
result Characterization of phase transitions in forgetting behavior.
Weight decay stabilizes training dynamics by slowing progressive sharpening.
problem Understanding how weight decay affects training stability in deep learning models.
method Analyzing weight decay effects at the Edge of Stability, developing a mathematical framework.
result Weight decay dampens oscillations and stabilizes sharpness in CNNs, causing a phase transition in MLPs.
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
The paper examines stability of shares in Proof of Stake protocol, identifying different investor behaviors and phase transitions.
problem Stability of shares in Proof of Stake protocol.
method Identification of large, medium, and small investors under various rewarding schemes; dynamical population model analysis.
result Phase transitions and thresholds for stability are characterized; chaotic centralization leads to concentration of shares.
We study the crash dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) by using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) networks. We find the transition of the complex network during its evolution from a (hierarchical) power law MST network, representing the stable state of WSE before the recent worldwide financial crash, to a superst…
Persistent entropy detects phase transitions in complex systems.
problem Detecting phase transitions in complex systems.
method Established a general theorem for persistent entropy to reliably detect phase transitions, introduced operational framework for finite-time computations.
result Persistent entropy exhibits an asymptotically non-vanishing gap across phases, robust numerical signatures across experiments.
In this paper we explore the functional correlation approach to operational risk. We consider networks with heterogeneous a-priori conditional and unconditional failure probability. In the limit of sparse connectivity, self-consistent expressions for the dynamical evolution of order parameters are obtained. Under equil…
Study phase transitions in noisy transformer dynamics on spheres.
problem Understanding phase transitions in noisy transformer dynamics on spheres.
method Sharp Beckner--Onofri/logarithmic HLS inequality, Funk--Hecke/Bessel coefficients, degree-two quartic obstruction.
result Sharp global-minimizer dichotomy and phase transitions in noisy transformer dynamics in arbitrary dimension.
We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex systems by identifying three of them on real-life financial markets. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and semi-analytical evidences for the existence of these phase transitions, by c…
New model explains deep learning performance at large learning rates.
problem Understanding deep learning performance at different learning rates.
method Developed neural networks with solvable training dynamics.
result Large learning rates lead to convergence to flatter minima.
Catapult phase in neural nets shows exponential loss growth before quick decrease.
problem Understanding phase transitions in neural networks during training.
method Analyzing weight norm and loss behavior for super-critical learning rates.
result Proven existence of catapult phase in quadratic models and two-layer nets.
The paper studies dynamical systems with evolving geometric structure using numerical methods.
problem Qualitative behavior of ODEs with varying geometric structure.
method Fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme for numerical analysis.
result Qualitative transitions in system dynamics as rotation parameter varies.
We give a polynomial-time algorithm for learning latent-state linear dynamical systems without system identification, and without assumptions on the spectral radius of the system's transition matrix. The algorithm extends the recently introduced technique of spectral filtering, previously applied only to systems with a…
Deep neural networks near edge of chaos show universal scaling laws.
problem Understanding the behavior of deep neural networks near critical points.
method Analogy to absorbing phase transitions in statistical mechanics, deterministic propagation dynamics, mean-field and directed percolation universality classes.
result Deep neural networks exhibit universal scaling laws near the edge of chaos.
Machine learning approximates phase transitions using Fisher information.
problem Understanding phase transitions from data using machine learning.
method Information geometry and Fisher information.
result Machine learning indicators approximate the square root of Fisher information.
Gradient flow in phase retrieval escapes spurious minima with high probability.
problem Understanding gradient-based optimization in high-dimensional non-convex functions.
method Analytical and numerical study of gradient dynamics in phase retrieval.
result Gradient flow avoids spurious minima by drifting along unstable directions.
If a given behavior of a multi-agent system restricts the phase variable to a invariant manifold, then we define a phase transition as change of physical characteristics such as speed, coordination, and structure. We define such a phase transition as splitting an underlying manifold into two sub-manifolds with distinct…
Study analyzes price change patterns across different market capitalizations using Markov chains.
problem Understanding price dynamics in limit order markets across various market capitalizations.
method Discrete-time Markov chain analysis of intraday price changes in NASDAQ100 tick data.
result Systematic patterns in price inertia and stability across market capitalizations are identified.
Empirical time series of inter-event or waiting times are investigated using a modified Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis operating on fluctuations of mean detrended dynamics. The core of the extended multifractal analysis is the non-monotonic behavior of the generalized Hurst exponent h(q) -- the fundament…
Diffusion maps help learn complex quantum phase transitions from data.
problem Learning quantum phase transitions from experimental data is challenging.
method Diffusion maps for nonlinear dimensionality reduction and spectral clustering.
result Diffusion maps can learn complex phase transitions unsupervised.
Double-well transitions are stiffer than minimal surfaces.
problem Rigidity of double-well phase transitions compared to minimal hypersurfaces.
method Comparison of rigidity properties between double-well phase transitions and minimal hypersurfaces.
result Double-well phase transitions exhibit more rigidity than minimal hypersurfaces.
Study on Langevin dynamics for recovering planted signals in spiked matrix models.
problem Recovering a planted signal in spiked matrix models.
method Path-wise characterization of overlap using integro-differential equations and explicit formula derivation.
result Sharp phase transition in limiting overlap: positive in one regime, zero in another due to injected noise.
DLNs dynamics change with variance, leading to saddle-to-saddle training phases.
problem Understanding the dynamics of DLNs with varying initialization variance.
method Analyzing the phase transition of DLNs' dynamics as variance changes.
result Gradient descent visits a sequence of saddles, reaching a sparse global minimum.
New algorithms handle phase retrieval with rank d measurements, revealing phase transitions.
problem Phase retrieval with rank d measurements.
method Random duality theory (RDT) and descending phase retrieval algorithms (dPR).
result Minimal sample complexity ratio for dPR's success exhibits phase transitions.
Characterizing the phase transitions of convex optimizations in recovering structured signals or data is of central importance in compressed sensing, machine learning and statistics. The phase transitions of many convex optimization signal recovery methods such as ℓ1 minimization and nuclear norm minimization are…
Modeling financial markets as gas molecules, the paper predicts phase transitions similar to water and steam.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets through phase transitions.
method Developed a lattice gas model equivalent to the Ising model on a social network, analyzing critical exponents and auto-correlations.
result Financial market dynamics exhibit phase transition-like behavior, with critical exponents analogous to water and steam.
Study phase transitions with prescribed mean curvature in Riemannian manifolds.
problem Understanding phase transitions with prescribed mean curvature in geometric settings.
method Analyzing solutions to inhomogeneous semilinear elliptic PDEs, establishing bounds and asymptotics.
result Established upper and lower bounds for eigenvalues of phase transition problems.
Abstract: Investigates the role of activation functions in neural networks and their physical basis.
problem Understanding the role of activation functions in neural networks and their physical basis.
method Formalizes the use of activation functions in neural inference by relating them to phase transitions in statistical physics.
result Reveals the physical justification for the performance of typical activation functions in neural networks.
ML PCA detects phase transitions in muon spectroscopy data.
problem Detecting phase transitions in materials using muon spectroscopy data.
method Unsupervised Machine Learning (PCA) applied to asymmetry functions.
result PCA method effectively detects phase transitions in muon spectroscopy experiments.
New framework analyzes SGD dynamics in large samples and dimensions.
problem Analyzing stochastic gradient descent in large-scale settings.
method Inspired by random matrix theory, new framework for fixed stepsize and finite sum settings.
result SGD dynamics become deterministic in the large sample and dimensional limit, governed by a Volterra integral equation.
Continuous phase transitions identified in Doi-Onsager, noisy transformer, and Hegselmann-Krause models.
problem Phase transitions in multimodal models and their properties.
method Sharp coercivity estimate and constrained Lebedev--Milin inequality.
result Continuous phase transitions at critical coupling strengths for Doi-Onsager, noisy transformer, and Hegselmann-Krause models.
We consider a random sparse graph with bounded average degree, in which a subset of vertices has higher connectivity than the background. In particular, the average degree inside this subset of vertices is larger than outside (but still bounded). Given a realization of such graph, we aim at identifying the hidden subse…
Unsupervised learning is a discipline of machine learning which aims at discovering patterns in big data sets or classifying the data into several categories without being trained explicitly. We show that unsupervised learning techniques can be readily used to identify phases and phases transitions of many body systems…
Descending phase retrieval algorithms show a phase transition with increasing sample complexity.
problem Theoretical limits of descending phase retrieval algorithms.
method Utilizing Random duality theory (RDT), the study develops a generic program to characterize algorithm performance.
result As sample complexity increases, the parametric manifold transitions from multi to single funneling points, leading to a phase transition in algorithm success.
Study finds phase transition in context-sensitive language model with short-range interactions.
problem Understanding phase transitions in language models with short-range interactions.
method Constructed a random language model with short-range interactions and investigated its statistical properties.
result Phase transition occurs in context-sensitive language models with constant context length.
In the Information Bottleneck (IB), when tuning the relative strength between compression and prediction terms, how do the two terms behave, and what's their relationship with the dataset and the learned representation? In this paper, we set out to answer these questions by studying multiple phase transitions in the IB…
Study local convergence of GDA for training GANs with kernel-based discriminators.
problem Analyzing the local dynamics of GDA for GANs with kernel-based discriminators.
method Linearization of a non-linear dynamical system, under an isolated points model assumption.
result Showed phase transitions indicating convergence, oscillation, or divergence of GDA.
Percolation on complex networks has been used to study computer viruses, epidemics, and other casual processes. Here, we present conditions for the existence of a network specific, observation dependent, phase transition in the updated posterior of node states resulting from actively monitoring the network. Since tradi…
Proves spectra equivalence for Riemannian manifolds.
problem Equivalence of Almgren-Pitts and phase-transition half-volume spectra.
method Proof of spectra equivalence for Riemannian manifolds.
result Confirms conjecture about spectra equivalence.
Deep networks learn features suddenly, akin to a phase transition.
problem Understanding sudden feature learning in deep networks.
method Adaptive kernel approach applied to two teacher-student models.
result Feature learning and Grokking are analogous to a first-order phase transition.