A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method optimizes portfolios by dynamically integrating ESG constraints.
RNNs classify text by accumulating evidence on a low-dimensional manifold.
A new method for CT-DCEGs simplifies inference for asymmetric processes.
This study develops a multi-factor framework where not only market risk is considered but also potential changes in the investment opportunity set. Although previous studies find no clear evidence about a positive and significant relation between return and risk, favourable evidence can be obtained if a non-linear rela…
The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
Supporting evidence for adaptive feature program across diverse models.
ITF improves DSR but inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood reduces it, affecting QoIs.
Model forecasts market structure from financial networks using machine learning.
This paper is part of the research on the interlinkages between insurers and their contribution to systemic risk on the insurance market. Its main purpose is to present the results of the analysis of linkage dynamics and systemic risk in the European insurance sector which are obtained using correlation networks. These…
Long memory and volatility clustering are two stylized facts frequently related to financial markets. Traditionally, these phenomena have been studied based on conditionally heteroscedastic models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH, inter alia. One advantage of these models is their ability to capture nonlinear dynam…
Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns of price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary it is well-known that technical t…
DQN outperforms static policies in a dynamic fee environment for automated market makers.
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage a…
There is more and more empirical evidence that multifractality constitutes another and perhaps the most significant financial stylized fact. A realistic model of the financial dynamics should therefore incorporate this effect. The most promising in this respect is the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns (MMAR) introduc…
Study finds meme stocks have unique price and social media dynamics.
Study of volume dynamics at market spread in Bitcoin/USD.
In the real world, agents often have to operate in situations with incomplete information, limited sensing capabilities, and inherently stochastic environments, making individual observations incomplete and unreliable. Moreover, in many situations it is preferable to delay a decision rather than run the risk of making …
Study examines infinite limits of transformer dynamics, identifying key parameterizations.
AdaBoost is one of the most popular ML algorithms. It is simple to implement and often found very effective by practitioners, while still being mathematically elegant and theoretically sound. AdaBoost's interesting behavior in practice still puzzles the ML community. We address the algorithm's stability and establish m…
We examine on the static and dynamical properties of quantum knots in a Bose-Einstein condensate. In particular, we consider the Gross-Pitaevskii model and revise a technique to construct ab initio the condensate wave-function of a generic torus knot. After analysing its excitation energy, we study its dynamics relatin…
We offer a novel view of AdaBoost in a statistical setting. We propose a Bayesian model for binary classification in which label noise is modeled hierarchically. Using variational inference to optimize a dynamic evidence lower bound, we derive a new boosting-like algorithm called VIBoost. We show its close connections …
Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cy…
We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite the heterogeneity obse…
We analyse a period spanning 35 years of activity in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA) and show that the Heston model with stochastic volatility is capable of explaining price fluctuations for time scales ranging from 5 minutes to 100 days with a single set of parameters. We also show that the Heston model …
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price returns of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distri…
Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis RQA) are signal numerical analysis methodologies able to work with non linear dynamical systems and non stationarity. Moreover they well evidence changes in the states of a dynamical system. It is shown that RP and RQA detect the critical regime in financial i…
This paper examines multifractal dynamics in cryptocurrencies using two methodologies.
For many externally driven complex systems neither the noisy driving force, nor the internal dynamics are a priori known. Here we focus on systems for which the time dependent activity of a large number of components can be monitored, allowing us to separate each signal into a component attributed to the external drivi…
Dynamic Sparse Training finds efficient sparse networks from scratch.
There is vast empirical evidence that given a set of assumptions on the real-world dynamics of an asset, the European options on this asset are not efficiently priced in options markets, giving rise to arbitrage opportunities. We study these opportunities in a generic stochastic volatility model and exhibit the strateg…
Neural networks with learned biases can approximate any function.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
Developed a new algorithm to improve dynamic treatment regimens.
Off-policy learning in dynamic decision problems is essential for providing strong evidence that a new policy is better than the one in use. But how can we prove superiority without testing the new policy? To answer this question, we introduce the G-SCOPE algorithm that evaluates a new policy based on data generated by…
Paper develops a framework to identify latent dynamics from high-dimensional data.
We analyze income tax evasion dynamics in a standard model of statistical mechanics, the Ising model of ferromagnetism. However, in contrast to previous research, we use an inhomogeneous multi-dimensional Ising model where the local degrees of freedom (agents) are subject to a specific social temperature and coupled to…
HRM-Agent learns to navigate dynamic mazes using reinforcement learning.
The paper studies the continuous-time dynamics of VIX with stochastic volatility and jumps in VIX and volatility. Built on the general parametric affine model with stochastic volatility and jump in logarithm of VIX, we derive a linear relation between the stochastic volatility factor and VVIX index. We detect the exist…
Adaptive AI delegation framework for dynamic decision authority allocation.
As a mental disorder progresses, it may affect brain structure, but brain function expressed in brain dynamics is affected much earlier. Capturing the moment when brain dynamics express the disorder is crucial for early diagnosis. The traditional approach to this problem via training classifiers either proceeds from ha…
MINIMALIST maximizes mutual information for likelihood estimation from simulated data.
New algorithm minimizes worst-case regret in uncertain, time-varying dynamics.
Study finds sales forecasters overreact to extreme news.
We study the persistence phenomenon in a socio-econo dynamics model using computer simulations at a finite temperature on hypercubic lattices in dimensions up to 5. The model includes a ` social\rq local field which contains the magnetization at time . The nearest neighbour quenched interactions are drawn from a bin…
We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial secto…
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard normal variables. This is the first evidence that the return dynamics of the spin fi…
A new method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning, especially for hard-to-label samples.
We propose to incorporate adversarial dropout in generative multi-adversarial networks, by omitting or dropping out, the feedback of each discriminator in the framework with some probability at the end of each batch. Our approach forces the single generator not to constrain its output to satisfy a single discriminator,…