Develops a neural framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems using trajectory-oriented approaches.
method D2D neural probabilistic forecasting framework using kernel mean embeddings and mixture density networks.
result The D2D model captures distributional evolution in chaotic systems and produces skillful probabilistic forecasts.
Pairs (Hamiltonian system, Lagrangian distribution), called dynamical Lagrangian distributions, appear naturally in Differential Geometry, Calculus of Variations and Rational Mechanics. The basic differential invariants of a dynamical Lagrangian distribution w.r.t. the action of the group of symplectomorphisms of the a…
Distributions derived from non-extensive Tsallis statistics are closely connected with dynamics described by a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation. The combination shows promise in describing stochastic processes with power-law distributions and superdiffusive dynamics. We investigate intra-day price changes in the S&P500…
Efficient EP algorithm improves smoothing distribution inference in financial models.
problem Computational intractability of smoothing distribution in high dimensions.
method Adapted expectation propagation (EP) algorithms for the unified skew-normal family.
result Accuracy gains in financial illustrations over existing approximate algorithms.
Adaptive sampling for multimodal distributions converges faster than classical methods.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions efficiently.
method Adaptive linear dynamics with adaptive diffusion coefficients and vector fields, interpreted as weighted Wasserstein gradient flows.
result Derivative-free dynamics can achieve significantly faster convergence for nonconvex potentials.
Langevin Dynamics fails to sample from mixture distributions efficiently.
problem Analyzing Langevin Dynamics for sampling from mixture distributions.
method Theoretical analysis of Langevin Dynamics and proposing Chained-Langevin Dynamics.
result Langevin Dynamics fails to sample from mixture distributions efficiently.
New method improves sample diversity and efficiency from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from intractable un-normalized distributions with high auto-correlation.
method Stein self-repulsive dynamics using a repulsive force to push samples away from past trajectories.
result Significantly decreases auto-correlation and increases effective sample size.
Koopman theory asserts that a nonlinear dynamical system can be mapped to a linear system, where the Koopman operator advances observations of the state forward in time. However, the observable functions that map states to observations are generally unknown. We introduce the Deep Variational Koopman (DVK) model, a meth…
New methods use transport maps to improve Langevin dynamics for sampling.
problem Sampling high-dimensional, non-Gaussian distributions efficiently.
method Apply transport maps to accelerate Langevin dynamics convergence.
result Discretized processes converge to target distribution with non-asymptotic bounds.
New SDE model from machine learning optimization with unique stationary distribution.
problem Stationary distribution of machine learning optimization models.
method Proved ergodicity and unique stationary distribution of power-law dynamic SDE.
result Power-law dynamic has a unique stationary distribution and is ergodic.
Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.
problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.
DFR models dynamic distributional data with weighted Fréchet means.
problem Regression of distribution-valued responses over time.
method Dynamic Fréchet Regression (DFR) with index-aware weighting and feature selection.
result Improved predictive accuracy and feature recovery over existing methods.
Risk measures applied to dynamic Markov processes with varying risk aversion.
problem Investigating dynamic risk measures in Markov decision processes with varying risk aversion.
method Distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, applied to Markov decision processes with latent costs and random actions.
result Existence of optimal policies in finite and infinite time horizons under mild assumptions.
Study on convergence of Langevin dynamics for zero-sum games in probability distributions.
problem Analyzing convergence of Langevin dynamics for zero-sum games in probability distributions.
method Proved exponential and biased convergence guarantees for mean-field and finite-particle min-max Langevin dynamics.
result Explicit iteration complexity for finite-particle algorithms to approximate equilibrium distributions.
The recent advances in deep transfer learning reveal that adversarial learning can be embedded into deep networks to learn more transferable features to reduce the distribution discrepancy between two domains. Existing adversarial domain adaptation methods either learn a single domain discriminator to align the global …
A model is presented of the market dynamics to emphasis the effects of increasing returns to scale, including the description of the born and death of the adaptive producers. The evolution of market structure and its behavior with the technological shocks are discussed. Its dynamics is in good agreement with some empir…
Proposes a method to forecast non-stationary time series.
problem Challenges of non-stationary conditional distributions in deep learning.
method Bayesian dynamic model + deep conditional distribution model.
result Adapts to non-stationary time series better than state-of-the-art solutions.
A new algorithm flattens multi-modal distributions for better deep learning.
problem Bayesian learning in big data with multi-modal distributions.
method Contour Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (CSGLD) algorithm.
result The CSGLD algorithm avoids local traps in deep neural networks.
We survey the use of dynamics of SL(2,R)-actions to understand gap distributions for various sequences of subsets of [0,1), particularly those arising from special trajectories of various two-dimensional dynamical systems. We state and prove an abstract theorem that gives a unified explanation for some of the ex…
Whereas subriemannian geometry usually deals with smooth horizontal distributions, partially hyperbolic dynamical systems provide many examples of subriemannian geometries defined by non-smooth (namely, Hölder continuous) distributions. These distributions are of great significance for the behavior of the parent dynami…
Extends DeTEcT framework for token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.
problem Modeling wealth distribution in token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.
method Introduces four parametrization techniques: dynamic vs static, probabilistic vs non-probabilistic.
result Derives existing wealth distribution models from DeTEcT framework with added restrictions.
SGD in DLNs reveals feature learning dynamics.
problem Understanding SGD dynamics in DLNs during saddle-to-saddle training.
method Stochastic Langevin dynamics with anisotropic, state-dependent noise; one-dimensional per-mode SDEs; Boltzmann distribution approximation.
result SGD noise encodes feature learning progression but does not alter saddle-to-saddle dynamics.
We find stationary distributions in a financial model with trends and mean-reversion.
problem Financial markets with competing trends and mean-reversion.
method Analytical derivation of stationary distributions in various noise and feedback regimes.
result The distributions are unimodal Gaussians in small noise, small feedback limits, but can be bimodal for stronger trends.
This paper studies nonholonomic constraints in Hamiltonian systems, deriving equations and theorems.
problem Analyzing nonholonomic constraints in Hamiltonian systems.
method Deriving distributional RCH systems, geometric constraint conditions, and Hamilton-Jacobi theorems.
result Derives precise geometric constraint conditions and Hamilton-Jacobi theorems for nonholonomic systems.
New algorithm for solving minimax problems over distributions converges to Nash equilibrium.
problem Solving minimax problems over probability distributions.
method Symmetric Mean-field Langevin Dynamics (MFL-AG and MFL-ABR) with weighted averaging and best response dynamics.
result Converges to mixed Nash equilibrium with average-iterate and last-iterate convergence.
TrajectoryNet models dynamic cellular trajectories using optimal transport.
problem Modeling continuous and non-linear paths in dynamic processes.
method Continuous normalizing flows linked to dynamic optimal transport.
result TrajectoryNet improves interpolation of cellular distributions.
Geometric tempering fails for Langevin dynamics, proving convergence limits.
problem Proving convergence and limitations of geometric tempering for Langevin dynamics.
method Theoretical investigation of geometric tempering using Langevin dynamics.
result Geometric tempering can lead to exponential time convergence and poor functional inequalities.
Defines g-expectation of distributions and its applications.
problem Defining g-expectation of distributions. method Two special cases of nonlinear g and law-invariant g-expectation. result Explicit derivation of g-expectation of distributions. GRADE models evolving graph dynamics by learning node and community representations.
problem Lack of tools to study temporal community dynamics in evolving graphs.
method GRADE is a probabilistic model that learns evolving node and community representations via a random walk prior and variational inference.
result GRADE outperforms baselines in dynamic link prediction and dynamic community detection.
In this paper, we studied the dynamics of the log-return distribution of the Korean Composition Stock Price Index (KOSPI) from 1992 to 2004. Based on the microscopic spin model, we found that while the index during the late 1990s showed a power-law distribution, the distribution in the early 2000s was exponential. This…
The behaviour of many real-world phenomena can be modelled by nonlinear dynamical systems whereby a latent system state is observed through a filter. We are interested in interacting subsystems of this form, which we model by a set of coupled maps as a synchronous update graph dynamical systems. Specifically, we study …
WRSE predicts dynamic survival distributions in ICU patients.
problem Dynamic assessment of ICU patient mortality risk.
method Non-parametric weighted-resolution ensemble model combining binary classifiers.
result Competitive results with state-of-the-art models, reducing training time.
Langevin dynamics fails to produce accurate samples even with small score function errors.
problem Robustness of Langevin dynamics to score function errors.
method Analysis of Langevin dynamics and score function errors.
result Langevin dynamics produces a distribution far from the target distribution in TV distance even with small L2 errors in the score function. KNF uses Koopman theory to forecast time series with changing dynamics.
problem Temporal distributional shifts in time series data.
method KNF combines DNNs with Koopman theory to learn dynamic operators.
result KNF outperforms alternatives on time series datasets with distributional shifts.
GRAM enhances deep RL for reliable real-world deployment.
problem Generalizing deep RL across in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios.
method Introduces a robust adaptation module and a joint training pipeline.
result GRAM achieves strong generalization performance in simulations and hardware.
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
problem Identifying latent variables in sequential data models.
method Proved identifiability of Markov Switching Models and established conditions for Switching Dynamical Systems.
result Identifiability of latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations.
DBGDGM models dynamic brain graphs for better understanding brain function.
problem Previous brain graph models ignore temporal dynamics, limiting their usefulness.
method DBGDGM clusters brain regions into evolving communities and learns dynamic node embeddings.
result DBGDGM outperforms baselines in graph generation, dynamic link prediction, and graph classification.
Transfer learning aims to learn robust classifiers for the target domain by leveraging knowledge from a source domain. Since the source and the target domains are usually from different distributions, existing methods mainly focus on adapting the cross-domain marginal or conditional distributions. However, in real appl…
Bayesian Federated Learning improves model reliability in dynamic environments.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robust adaptation in distributed learning.
method Proposes a continual BFL framework using SGLD for sequential updates and continual learning challenges.
result Continual Bayesian updates preserve knowledge and adapt to evolving data.
Log-Normal Multiplicative Dynamics improves low-precision training of neural networks.
problem Training large neural networks with low precision is unstable.
method Derive a Bayesian learning rule with log-normal posterior distributions and multiplicative updates.
result LMD achieves stable and accurate training for Vision Transformer and GPT-2.
In sustained growth with random dynamics stationary distributions can exist without detailed balance. This suggests thermodynamical behavior in fast growing complex systems. In order to model such phenomena we apply both a discrete and a continuous master equation. The derivation of elementary rates from known stationa…
Generative adversarial network for probabilistic forecasting of random systems.
problem Forecasting random dynamical systems without distributional assumptions.
method Recurrent neural network and generative adversarial network (GAN) with regularization based on maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result The proposed model successfully forecasts complex stochastic processes with multiple-step predictions.
Improved deep dynamics models with symmetries for better accuracy and generalization.
problem Limited physical accuracy and inability to generalize under distributional shift in deep learning dynamics models.
method Incorporating symmetries into convolutional neural networks using various methods tailored to enforce different symmetries.
result Models robust to distributional shift by symmetry group transformations and favorable sample complexity.
For large-scale industrial processes under closed-loop control, process dynamics directly resulting from control action are typical characteristics and may show different behaviors between real faults and normal changes of operating conditions. However, conventional distributed monitoring approaches do not consider the…
Dynamic reinsurance aims to minimize surplus risk using martingale transport.
problem Minimizing surplus risk in dynamic reinsurance.
method Martingale optimal transport techniques.
result A tractable solution analogous to the Bass martingale is found.
A new method de-randomizes MCMC dynamics using the Stein operator.
problem Estimating complex target distributions in Bayesian inference.
method De-randomized kernel-based particle samplers that discretize the fiber-gradient Hamiltonian flow.
result GSVGD de-randomizes complex MCMC dynamics, maintaining high sample quality.
Lapse improves parameter servers by dynamically allocating parameters, achieving near-linear scaling.
problem Efficiently managing distributed training with reduced communication overhead.
method Integrate dynamic parameter allocation into parameter servers, proposing Lapse.
result Lapse provides near-linear scaling and can be orders of magnitude faster than existing parameter servers.
Model approximates market prices and returns without prior market dynamics.
problem Simultaneously approximate market prices and log returns.
method GDN model of Kratsios and Papon (2022) for generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
result Universal approximation guarantees for conditional distributions and contingent claims.