A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Evaluates transfer learning methods in dynamic data availability scenarios.
Method learns dynamics of slow variables from stochastic data.
Method extracts governing laws from non-Gaussian stochastic systems data.
Learning nonlinear dynamics from diffusion data is a challenging problem since the individuals observed may be different at different time points, generally following an aggregate behaviour. Existing work cannot handle the tasks well since they model such dynamics either directly on observations or enforce the availabi…
Empirical data on real complex systems are becoming increasingly available. Parallel to this is the need for new methods of reconstructing (inferring) the topology of networks from time-resolved observations of their node-dynamics. The methods based on physical insights often rely on strong assumptions about the proper…
Framework augments physical models with deep learning for complex dynamics forecasting.
While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical interest is computationally infeasible or impractical. In complex systems, with lim…
Despite the availability of ever more data enabled through modern sensor and computer technology, it still remains an open problem to learn dynamical systems in a sample-efficient way. We propose active learning strategies that leverage information-theoretical properties arising naturally during Gaussian process regres…
New method models unknown systems with hidden parameters using neural networks.
We describe a project, called the "Discretization in Geometry and Dynamics Gallery", or DGD Gallery for short, whose goal is to store geometric data and to make it publicly available. The DGD Gallery offers an online web service for the storage, sharing, and publication of digital research data.
Paper explores foundation models for dynamical systems using synthetic data.
Enhances patient failure prediction using dynamic survival models.
ERFit identifies dynamic equations from data with minimal supervision.
Proposes a method to forecast spatial-temporal data with limited training data.
With the rapid increase of available data for complex systems, there is great interest in the extraction of physically relevant information from massive datasets. Recently, a framework called Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) has been introduced to identify the governing equations of dynamical systems…
Proposes overnight volatility model for better market dynamics.
Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.
Research activities of Kyoto Econophysics Group is reviewed. Strong emphasis has been placed on real economy. While the initial stage of research was a first high-definition data analysis on personal income, it soon progressed to firm dynamics, growth rate distribution and establishment of Pareto's law and Gibrat's law…
Commonly used limit order book attributes are empirically considered based on NASDAQ ITCH data. It is shown that some of them have the properties drastically different from the ones assumed in many market dynamics study. Because of this difference we propose to make a transition from "Statistical" type of order book st…
Dynamic Time Warping improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data.
CoDA adapts dynamics models to new physical systems by conditioning on context.
New method learns from non-uniform data and partial physical knowledge.
Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been…
Paper proposes a new method to attack Bayesian forecasting models.
Cellular regulatory dynamics is driven by large and intricate networks of interactions at the molecular scale, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. In light of limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus models built on the detailed, mechanistic viewpoint overfit and are not …
Learn dynamics of a system using auxiliary data from similar systems.
Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been…
In this work we investigate approaches to reconstruct generator models from measurements available at the generator terminal bus using machine learning (ML) techniques. The goal is to develop an emulator which is trained online and is capable of fast predictive computations. The training is illustrated on synthetic dat…
Sequential screening and dynamic regret in multi-armed bandits with arriving arms
Learning nonlinear dynamics from aggregate data is a challenging problem because the full trajectory of each individual is not available, namely, the individual observed at one time may not be observed at the next time point, or the identity of individual is unavailable. This is in sharp contrast to learning dynamics w…
Study uses auxiliary data to estimate system dynamics, reducing noise error.
Koopman operator theory simplifies complex systems analysis.
A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.
DGRCL integrates dynamic and static graph relations for financial market prediction.
Mainstream financial econometrics methods are based on models well tuned to replicate price dynamics, but with little to no economic justification. In particular, the randomness in these models is assumed to result from a combination of exogenous factors. In this paper, we present a model originating from game theory, …
New framework for forecasting psychological processes from ILD.
A new method for dynamic feature selection outperforms existing approaches.
The roundworm C. elegans exhibits robust escape behavior in response to rapidly rising temperature. The behavior lasts for a few seconds, shows history dependence, involves both sensory and motor systems, and is too complicated to model mechanistically using currently available knowledge. Instead we model the process p…
Bayesian algorithm stabilizes unknown continuous-time systems from unstable data.
New method learns cell trajectories and network interactions from single-cell data.
The forecasting and reconstruction of ocean and atmosphere dynamics from satellite observation time series are key challenges. While model-driven representations remain the classic approaches, data-driven representations become more and more appealing to benefit from available large-scale observation and simulation dat…
Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in ma…
Prospective learning improves AI performance in changing conditions.
As the availability and importance of temporal interaction data--such as email communication--increases, it becomes increasingly important to understand the underlying structure that underpins these interactions. Often these interactions form a multigraph, where we might have multiple interactions between two entities.…
Different approaches to defining dynamic market risk measures are available in the literature. Most are focused or derived from probability theory, economic behavior or dynamic programming. Here, we propose an approach to define and implement dynamic market risk measures based on recursion and state economy representat…
The ability to predict city-wide parking availability is crucial for the successful development of Parking Guidance and Information (PGI) systems. Indeed, the effective prediction of city-wide parking availability can improve parking efficiency, help urban planning, and ultimately alleviate city congestion. However, it…
LEADS improves model generalization across different environments.
A scalable method for econometric inference using machine learning for big data.