Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.
problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.
New model tackles complex spatio-temporal causal inference with dynamic confounders and functional data.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dynamics and unmeasured confounders hinder causal inference.
method PFD-BDCM, a unified generative framework for spatio-temporal dependencies, functional data, and dynamic confounding.
result PFD-BDCM outperforms existing methods across observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries.
TSCI improves causal inference in dynamical systems using vector fields.
problem Challenges in causal discovery with time series data in dynamical systems.
method TSCI method using vector fields to check for synchronization between learned dynamics.
result TSCI outperforms traditional methods like CCM and its generalizations.
Interpretable model for Granger causality using neural networks.
problem Inferring Granger causality in complex dynamical systems.
method Extension of self-explaining neural networks for multivariate Granger causality.
result Framework performs on par with baseline methods and better at inferring interaction signs.
Graph Neural Network improves causal inference in dynamic systems.
problem Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series.
method Graph Neural Network approach with score-based method.
result Graph Neural Network significantly outperformed other methods in dynamic Bayesian network inference.
New method identifies how platforms can influence consumer behavior.
problem Estimating the causal effect of digital platforms on consumption.
method General causal inference problem, focusing on observational designs, and explicitly modeling consumption dynamics.
result Exogenous variation in consumption and responsive algorithmic control actions are sufficient for identifying steerability of consumption.
DCBO optimizes interventions in evolving causal systems.
problem Optimal interventions in time-varying causal systems.
method Combines sequential decision making, causal inference, and GP emulation.
result DCBO identifies optimal interventions faster than competitors.
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
problem Detecting and quantifying causal influence ranges in complex systems.
method Bayesian data assimilation and assimilative causal inference (ACI) to trace causes back from observed effects.
result Mathematically rigorous formulations of forward and backward causal influence ranges (CIRs) for nonlinear dynamical systems.
TV-SurvCaus improves causal inference for dynamic treatments in survival analysis.
problem Estimating causal effects of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes.
method Representation balancing techniques extended to time-varying treatment regimes with survival outcomes.
result TV-SurvCaus outperforms existing methods in estimating individualized treatment effects with time-varying covariates and treatments.
ACI uses Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes from effects in complex systems.
problem Capturing instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Assimilative causal inference (ACI) leverages Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes backward from observed effects.
result ACI provides online tracking of causal roles that may reverse intermittently and reveals how far effects propagate.
New model infers causal relationships from spatio-temporal data, even with unobserved confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from spatio-temporal data due to unobserved confounders.
method Spatio-Temporal Hierarchical Causal Models (ST-HCMs) that extend hierarchical causal modeling to the spatio-temporal domain, using the Spatio-Temporal Collapse Theorem.
result Validated the effectiveness of ST-HCMs on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating robust causal inference in complex dynamic systems.
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon i…
TS-K-means improves financial data clustering with dynamic time warping.
problem Inadequate handling of temporal dependencies in financial time series data.
method Integrates Dynamic Time Warping into Time Series K-means for financial data.
result TS-K-means outperforms traditional K-means in financial data analysis.
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.
Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.
problem Qualitative changes in causal relationships due to agent actions or environmental tipping points.
method Propose meta-causal states to group causal models based on equivalent qualitative behavior and parameterize specific mechanisms.
result Meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior and disentangled from unlabeled data.
The paper proposes a method to identify causal structure in complex dynamical systems.
problem Spurious correlations in data-driven models limit the performance of control systems.
method The method leverages controllability concepts to compute input trajectories and uses causal inference techniques.
result The method reliably identifies the true causal structure of control systems from real-world data.
Study uses machine learning to predict stroke risk in China with improved accuracy.
problem Predicting stroke risk in China using machine learning.
method Combines VAR and GNN for causal inference, compares multiple classification algorithms, uses SMOTE undersampling.
result Gradient Boosting model shows highest performance and stability in predicting stroke risk.
Develops variable-lag Granger causality and Transfer Entropy for time series analysis.
problem Fixed time delay assumption in Granger causality and Transfer Entropy does not hold in many applications.
method Variable-lag Granger causality and Transfer Entropy, using optimal warping path of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW).
result Proposed methods perform better than existing methods in both simulated and real-world datasets.
Method infers causal structure from system behaviors using RKHS and kernel ε-machines.
problem Discovering causal structure in systems with varying external and measurement noise.
method Combines causal states and RKHS for efficient representation and inference of causal structure.
result Robustly estimates causal structure in high-dimensional data with varying noise.
We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.
problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.
Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.
DeepCausalMMM models marketing impacts using deep learning and causal inference.
problem Traditional MMM approaches struggle with non-linear dynamics and temporal patterns.
method Combines deep learning, causal inference, and marketing science. Uses GRUs for temporal patterns and DAG structure for channel dependencies.
result Captures non-linear dynamics and temporal patterns in marketing impacts.
LOCAL learns dynamic causal structures from time series data efficiently.
problem Challenges in discovering DAG from time series data due to dynamic nature and nonlinear interactions.
method LOCAL proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function and adaptive modules ACML and DGPL.
result LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods in dynamic causal discovery.
New method learns cell trajectories and network interactions from single-cell data.
problem Network inference in systems biology from steady-state data.
method Min-entropy estimation for stochastic dynamics, leveraging both temporal and perturbational data.
result Jointly learns cellular trajectories and network interactions.
Model discovers causal relationships from video data of physical systems.
problem Discover structural dependencies and causal interactions in physical systems from video data.
method End-to-end model with perception, inference, and dynamics modules; handles unknown interventions.
result Model correctly identifies causal interactions and makes long-term predictions.
Develops methods for causal inference in longitudinal data.
problem Estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITEs) in high-dimensional, time-varying data.
method Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) and long-term counterfactual regression framework.
result CDVAE outperforms baselines and improves state-of-the-art models, approaching oracle performance.
S-DIDML integrates structural DID with ML for causal inference in high-dimensional data.
problem Causal inference in high-dimensional observational panel data with confounding variables.
method Structural identification with high-dimensional estimation, Neyman orthogonality, cross-fitting, causal forests, semi-parametric models.
result Precision in identifying policy-sensitive groups and optimizing resource allocation.
IntDC framework uncovers causal relationships from non-interventional data.
problem Detecting causal relationships in non-interventional complex systems.
method Interventional Embedding Entropy (IEE) for causal strength measurement.
result IEE accurately finds causal edges and quantifies causal strength robustly.
This paper reviews causal inference methods for time series data.
problem Estimating treatment effects and identifying causal relations from time series data.
method Comprehensive review of approaches for treatment effect estimation and causal discovery.
result Provides a list of evaluation metrics and datasets for time series causal inference.
Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.
problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.
New framework infers causal shifts in event sequences under out-of-domain interventions.
problem Inferring causal relationships in event sequences without considering out-of-domain interventions.
method Proposes a new causal framework to define ATE, designs an unbiased ATE estimator, and uses a Transformer-based neural network model.
result Demonstrates superior performance in ATE estimation and goodness-of-fit under out-of-domain-augmented point processes.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
CoDA augments data with counterfactuals from local causal structures.
problem Improving sample efficiency in RL with complex dynamic processes.
method Local causal models (LCMs) and Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CoDA).
result CoDA significantly improves RL agent performance in locally factored tasks.
Study integrates causal inference and temporal complexity measures to analyze mental health symptoms.
problem Examining how individual symptom trajectories reveal diagnostic patterns in mental disorders.
method Causal inference, graph analysis, temporal complexity measures, machine learning.
result 91% accuracy in diagnosing symptom dynamics, highlighting disorder-specific causal mechanisms.
While correlation measures are used to discern statistical relationships between observed variables in almost all branches of data-driven scientific inquiry, what we are really interested in is the existence of causal dependence. Designing an efficient causality test, that may be carried out in the absence of restricti…
Machine learning is the science of discovering statistical dependencies in data, and the use of those dependencies to perform predictions. During the last decade, machine learning has made spectacular progress, surpassing human performance in complex tasks such as object recognition, car driving, and computer gaming. H…
Study uses Wasserstein distance to identify causal orders and unmix sources.
problem Identifying causal relationships and separating sources in non-Gaussian data.
method Wasserstein distance for non-Gaussianity, linear ICA, causal inference.
result Exact identification of ICA unmixing matrix and causal orders.
XTNet estimates complex cross-treatment effects in multi-category, multi-valued settings.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects for multi-category, multi-valued treatments.
method Dynamic Neural Masking for capturing treatment interactions without restrictive assumptions.
result XTNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in multi-category, multi-valued treatment effect estimation.
Paper tackles anomaly detection and RCA in dynamical systems using ICODE Networks.
problem Anomalies in dynamical systems impact performance and reliability.
method Proposes ICODE Networks for anomaly detection, RCA, and type classification.
result Demonstrates the ability to accurately detect anomalies, classify types, and pinpoint origins.
A new FFT-based method simplifies causal structure recovery for linear dynamical systems.
problem Efficiently identifying dynamic causal effects from time-series data.
method FFT-based approach to reduce computational complexity to O(Tn3logN). result Significant computational advantage for graph reconstruction.
EnKBS smoothes complex systems with future observations for causal inference.
problem Improving state estimation in complex systems with rapid dynamics.
method Continuous-time ensemble Kalman-Bucy smoother for nonlinear dynamical systems.
result EnKBS provides derivative-free framework with high skill in various scientific problems.
Paper develops a new estimator for dynamic treatment effects in high-dimensional settings.
problem Time-varying confounding and model misspecification in estimating dynamic treatment effects.
method Sequential model doubly robust estimator with moment-targeting estimates.
result Root-N inference achieved under model misspecification, even with high-dimensional covariates.
Study uses deep neural networks for causal inference tasks, especially in high-dimensional settings.
problem Challenges in direct estimation for complex causal inference tasks.
method Sequential multi-stage learning with doubly robust deep neural networks.
result Theoretical guarantees for DNNs' effectiveness in high-dimensional causal inference.
Novel algorithm detects causal macrovariables from high-dimensional data.
problem Leveraging high-dimensional observational datasets for coarse-grained causal models.
method Inspired by information bottlenecks, novel algorithm detects macrovariables and investigates causal relationships through additive noise models.
result Algorithm robustly detects and infers causal relationships in both synthetic and real climate datasets.
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
problem Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes using historical observational data when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Utilizes proximal causal inference framework to propose three nonparametric identification methods, a (K+1)-robust method, and establish a semiparametric efficiency bound.
result Establishes the (K+1)-robust method for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes, validating its efficiency and multiple robustness through numerical experiments.
We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal, nonparametric-window moving-average filter, a construction that we show to be equivalent to …
A new RL framework evaluates dynamic mediation effects over time.
problem Dynamic mediation effects in sequentially assigned treatments.
method Reinforcement Learning framework for decomposition and estimation of causal effects.
result Superior performance demonstrated through numerical studies and real data analysis.