We explain the main concepts of Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory within the framework of rational dynamic asset pricing theory. We derive option pricing formulas when asset returns are altered with a generalized Prospect Theory value function or a modified Prelec weighting probability function and introdu…
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48 results for “dynamic asset weights”
Optimizes retirement spending and asset allocation to maximize withdrawals and shortfall.
problem Risk of depleting retirement savings with constant withdrawal rules.
method Dynamic asset allocation to maximize weighted EW and ES.
result Dynamic strategy outperforms constant withdrawal and asset allocation rules.
Probability Weighting Meets Heavy Tails: An Econometric Framework for Behavioral Asset Pricingq-fin.MF
Econometric framework integrates heavy-tailed distributions with behavioral probability weighting for better asset pricing.
problem Underestimation of Value-at-Risk by traditional models in asset pricing.
method Developed an econometric framework combining heavy-tailed Student's distributions with behavioral probability weighting.
result Student's specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4% of cases, reducing underestimation of Value-at-Risk by 16.5 percentage points.
Test-asset construction affects factor model performance.
problem How test assets are constructed impacts factor model performance.
method Forming characteristic-unsorted random portfolios and varying stock selection, initial weighting, holding, and rebalancing.
result Test-asset construction shifts factor model rankings materially.
This paper considers mean-variance optimization under uncertainty, specifically when one desires a sparsified set of optimal portfolio weights. From the standpoint of a Bayesian investor, our approach produces a small portfolio from many potential assets while acknowledging uncertainty in asset returns and parameter es…
Option Pricing with Mixed Levy Subordinated Price Process and Implied Probability Weighting Functionq-fin.MF
It is essential to incorporate the impact of investor behavior when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this paper, we reconcile behavioral finance and rational finance by incorporating investor behavior within the framework of dynamic asset pricing theory. To include the views of investors, we employ the method…
Enhances portfolio construction with tailored regime forecasts for individual assets.
problem Traditional portfolio construction methods fail to account for asset-specific market conditions.
method Hybrid framework combining unsupervised and supervised learning for regime identification and forecasting.
result Outperforms traditional portfolio models across various asset classes.
Develops a hedging method for multi-asset derivatives with correlation risk.
problem Hedging multi-asset derivatives exposed to correlation and covariance risk.
method Combines dynamic trading with static hedging instruments using Galtchouk--Kunita--Watanabe decomposition.
result Explicit semi-static replication formulas for covariance swaps and geometric dispersion trades.
A Closed-Form Solution of the Multi-Period Portfolio Choice Problem for a Quadratic Utility Functionq-fin.PM
In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed a…
Study optimizes investment strategies in volatile markets using machine learning and Bayesian techniques.
problem Enhancing portfolio management in volatile markets.
method Market segmentation into ten volatility-based states, real-time asset allocation adjustments using Bayesian Markov switching model.
result Dynamic portfolio achieves significantly higher risk-adjusted returns and total returns.
Dynamic trading strategies, in the spirit of trend-following or mean-reversion, represent an only partly understood but lucrative and pervasive area of modern finance. Assuming Gaussian returns and Gaussian dynamic weights or signals, (e.g., linear filters of past returns, such as simple moving averages, exponential we…
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom of trend-following by showing that the medium-term horizon adds little value once short- and long-term components are included.
problem The conventional wisdom that more horizons improve diversification and performance is challenged.
method A Bayesian optimization framework reallocates exposure dynamically across horizons, optimizing horizon-level weights at the asset level and applying sparsity and turnover control for dynamic allocation across assets.
result The medium-term horizon contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included.
Deep RL optimizes dynamic portfolio weights in China's stock market.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization methods struggle with dynamic asset weight adjustments.
method Developed a deep reinforcement learning framework with novel reward functions and random sampling.
result Model outperforms traditional methods in portfolio optimization and risk mitigation.
Proposes a new framework for investing that adapts to market regimes.
problem Adapting to dynamic market regimes for better investment performance.
method Wasserstein Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with transaction-cost-aware optimization.
result Significantly higher risk-adjusted performance compared to benchmarks.
The influence of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) on the price process is explored with the help of a simple model. CTA managers are taken to be Kelly optimisers, which invest a fixed proportion of their assets in the risky asset and the remainder in a riskless asset. This requires regular adjustment of the portfolio w…
Generative diffusion models forecast implied vol surfaces without arbitrage issues.
problem Forecasting arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces using historical data with path-dependent dynamics.
method Generative diffusion model (DDPM) with conditional training on market variables, including EWMAs and returns. Dynamic penalty scheme based on SNR to enforce arbitrage-free surfaces.
result Superior performance in volatility forecasting compared to existing methods.
We construct a continuous time model for price-mediated contagion precipitated by a common exogenous stress to the banking book of all firms in the financial system. In this setting, firms are constrained so as to satisfy a risk-weight based capital ratio requirement. We use this model to find analytical bounds on the …
Hybrid LSTM-PPO optimizes dynamic portfolios with better performance.
problem Dynamic portfolio optimization under non-stationary market conditions.
method Combines LSTM for forecasting and PPO for adaptive portfolio adjustments.
result Hybrid framework outperforms single-model and equal-weight approaches in various metrics.
Paper explores asset pricing dynamics in Bachelier model.
problem Understanding risky asset price dynamics in Bachelier model.
method Analyzes Bachelier market model to represent risky asset price dynamics.
result Defines riskless assets within the Bachelier model.
MDS selects assets by combining daily returns and intraday risk curves, improving portfolio performance.
problem High estimation error in large-scale asset selection.
method Metric Dependence Screening (MDS) incorporating high frequency information as object valued data.
result MDS improves portfolio performance over benchmarks by preserving intraday risk dynamics.
A market portfolio is a portfolio in which each asset is held at a weight proportional to its market value. Functionally generated portfolios are portfolios for which the logarithmic return relative to the market portfolio can be decomposed into a function of the market weights and a process of locally finite variation…
Time-dependent weighted directed networks of cryptocurrency interaction from high-frequency returnsq-fin.TR
Investigate the evolving structure of cryptocurrency interactions using high-frequency returns.
problem Evolution of cryptocurrency interactions
method Construct directed and weighted networks from Granger causal relationships between cryptocurrency log-returns.
result Normalized returns exhibit heavy-tailed distributions.
Algorithm ranks assets in fluctuating markets.
problem Ranking assets in nonstationary time series.
method Naive Bayes asset ranker that adjusts weights based on performance.
result Outperforms traditional methods and S&P 500 index.
Outperformance and Tracking: Dynamic Asset Allocation for Active and Passive Portfolio Managementq-fin.PM
Portfolio management problems are often divided into two types: active and passive, where the objective is to outperform and track a preselected benchmark, respectively. Here, we formulate and solve a dynamic asset allocation problem that combines these two objectives in a unified framework. We look to maximize the exp…
New shrinkage estimator for GMV portfolio reduces risk in high-dimensional asset settings.
problem Estimating the global minimum variance portfolio in high-dimensional settings with limited data.
method Dynamic shrinkage of the GMV portfolio using previous data as a target.
result The new estimator outperforms traditional methods in high-dimensional asset settings.
Dynamic-weight AMMs outperform traditional CEX rebalancing in tokenized funds, especially on L2s.
problem Improving asset allocation efficiency in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.
method Block-level arbitrage analysis and long-term performance benchmarks on two live pools.
result Dynamic-weight AMMs can achieve performance comparable to or better than traditional CEX rebalancing, especially on Layer 2 (L2) networks.
Hedge funds have long been viewed as a veritable "black box" of investing since outsiders may never view the exact composition of portfolio holdings. Therefore, the ability to estimate an informative set of asset weights is highly desirable for analysis. We present a compositional state space model for estimation of an…
A heat kernel approach is proposed for the development of a general, flexible, and mathematically tractable asset pricing framework in finite time. The pricing kernel, giving rise to the price system in an incomplete market, is modelled by weighted heat kernels which are driven by multivariate Markov processes and whic…
This paper uses Malliavin calculus to price and compute delta of financial derivatives in jump-diffusion models.
problem Pricing and delta computation of financial derivatives in jump-diffusion models with stochastic intensity.
method Utilizes Malliavin calculus to price and compute delta, applying the Euler scheme for convergence analysis.
result Established the convergence of approximated solution, financial derivative, and its delta Greeks.
A hybrid framework prices options using neural networks and VAE latent space.
problem Lack of explicit asset dynamics information in compressed volatility surfaces.
method Combining Weighted Monte Carlo with neural networks trained on VAE latent space.
result Effective pricing of vanilla and exotic options on idealized vol surface.
Study improves stock price prediction using adaptive Mixture of Experts framework.
problem Tackles diverse volatility regimes in stock price prediction.
method Combines RNN for high-volatility stocks and linear regression for stable stocks with a gating mechanism.
result Achieves up to 33% improvement in MSE for volatile assets and 28% for stable assets.
Spectral portfolio theory links neural networks to wealth dynamics via SGD weight matrices.
problem Understanding wealth dynamics from neural network training.
method Direct identification of weight matrices as portfolio allocation matrices, linking SGD forces to portfolio dynamics.
result Spectral properties of SGD weight matrices transition between additive and multiplicative regimes, influencing wealth dynamics.
Paper uses DRL to optimize portfolios, balancing risk and return.
problem Optimizing portfolios under market uncertainty and risk constraints.
method Integrates Sharpe ratio-based reward with risk control mechanisms, uses PPO for adaptive asset allocation.
result DRL agent stabilizes volatility but sacrifices risk-adjusted returns.
Solves portfolio optimization with costs using numerical methods.
problem Dynamic portfolio optimization with transaction costs and constraints.
method Numerical dynamic programming techniques.
result Problems can now be solved tractably.
Optimal Investment Strategy for Risky Assetscond-mat.stat-mech
We design an optimal strategy for investment in a portfolio of assets subject to a multiplicative Brownian motion. The strategy provides the maximal typical long-term growth rate of investor's capital. We determine the optimal fraction of capital that an investor should keep in risky assets as well as weights of differ…
WaveCorr uses deep reinforcement learning to manage portfolios more effectively.
problem Dynamic portfolio rebalancing with multiple factors.
method Introduces WaveCorr, a DRL network with permutation invariant correlation processing.
result WaveCorr outperforms existing methods with up to 25% improvement in Sharpe ratio.
A new VWAP execution method using transformer and signature features.
problem Asset-specific model training and complex temporal dependencies.
method Combining transformer-based design with path signatures for capturing geometric features.
result GFT-Sig model achieves superior performance in VWAP loss metrics.
Investigates price dynamics of two assets with and without bubbles, deriving conditions for equilibrium prices.
problem Understanding price dynamics and bubbles in multi-asset markets.
method Derives sufficient and necessary conditions for average equilibrium price dynamics in a two-asset model.
result Assets with positive average dividends display hump-shaped bubbles, while those with constant fundamental values show misvaluation effects.
Dynamic model considers private asset markets' complexities.
problem Understanding and optimizing private asset allocation.
method State-of-the-art dynamic model with machine learning.
result Optimal investment policies quantified over fund life.
Deep learning improves portfolio management by optimizing asset weights.
problem Traditional portfolio managers are outperformed by deep learning models in trading.
method Proposes a deep reinforcement learning portfolio manager that allocates weights to assets.
result The proposed portfolio manager outperforms conventional managers in risk-adjusted returns.
Optimal rebalancing strategy improves AMM pool performance by 25%.
problem Optimizing the sequence of weights in dynamic AMM pools to minimize rebalancing costs.
method Using optimal interpolation and a cheap-to-compute approximation to achieve nearly optimal rebalancing.
result Approximately-optimal weight changes lead to significant increases in pool performance (up to 25%) under various conditions.
AI models outperform simple rules in cross-asset futures timing, especially with lower transaction costs.
problem Optimizing cross-asset portfolio weights using traditional forecasting and optimization methods.
method End-to-end AI policies that map market states directly to portfolio weights, trained on CME futures using a differentiable Sharpe ratio loss function.
result Transformer-based AI policies outperform simple rules and equal weighting, trading less and matching or exceeding equal weighting through moderate transaction costs.
Quantum computing speeds up asset pricing models exponentially.
problem Solving dynamic nonlinear asset pricing models efficiently.
method Utilizes quantum superposition and entanglement to solve models exponentially faster than classical methods.
result Exponential computational speed-up for solving asset pricing models.
This research combines DRL with BL model for better portfolio optimization.
problem Lack of dynamic correlation knowledge in DRL for optimal portfolio optimization.
method Hybrid model combining DRL and Black-Litterman model.
result DRL agent significantly outperforms other strategies in terms of return and risk.
In this paper we analyse financial implications of exchangeability and similar properties of finite dimensional random vectors. We show how these properties are reflected in prices of some basket options in view of the well-known put-call symmetry property and the duality principle in option pricing. A particular atten…
PT network optimizes asset weights without forecasting returns.
problem Traditional asset allocation methods are error-prone and limit portfolio performance.
method PT network uses attention mechanisms to directly optimize Sharpe ratio.
result PT outperforms other algorithms in risk-adjusted performance.
Intermediating DFMM Asset (IDA)q-fin.GN
IDA makes DFMM's asset tradeable, enhancing cross-chain finance efficiency.
problem Making DFMM's asset tradeable to improve cross-chain finance efficiency.
method Introducing IDA as a tradeable asset, leveraging DFMM's robust liquidity and dynamic AMM.
result IDA enhances cross-chain finance efficiency through tradeable asset and dynamic AMM.
Study on asset price dynamics in OLG economies with and without a bubbly asset.
problem Analyzing asset price dynamics and optimality in OLG economies with an asset that yields dividends.
method Deriving conditions for three scenarios of equilibrium existence, providing a complete characterization of the equilibrium set, and investigating the relationship between asset price behaviors and optimality.
result A bubbly equilibrium exists if and only if the interest rate is lower than the population growth rate and the sum of per capita dividends is finite.