Develops geometric BSDEs for modeling dynamic return risk measures.
problem Modeling continuous-time dynamic return risk measures.
method Introduces and develops Geometric Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (GBSDEs) and two-driver BSDEs.
result Establishes existence, regularity, uniqueness, and stability of solutions to GBSDEs.
New formula for portfolio risk management using conditional PDEs.
problem Optimal diversification and risk management of portfolios.
method Closed-form formula for conditional probability, Gaussian copulas, conditional risk-neutral PDE.
result Dynamic monitoring of portfolio volatilities and weights from PDEs.
The paper examines variable annuities pricing and risk management using the Black-Scholes model and identifies key risk drivers.
problem Model risk in pricing and managing variable annuities using the Black-Scholes model.
method Derives a model-free decomposition of variable annuity prices and investigates hedging strategies.
result The spot price risk can always be eliminated by the BS-based hedging strategy, but there is gradual slippage and instantaneous leakage.
Improved risk assessment for UBI using telematics data and AdaBoost.
problem Class imbalance in predicting claims frequency for UBI.
method Cost-sensitive multi-class AdaBoost (SAMME.C2) algorithm.
result SAMME.C2 outperforms other models in handling class imbalances.
We decompose the squared price-of-risk premium into three components: intervention-stable premium, confounding wedge, and information loss.
problem Decomposing the squared price-of-risk premium into its components
method Identifying an order-three obstruction to aggregation across portfolios
result The decomposition is estimable and detectable with a permutation-calibrated screen
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
problem Misrepresentation of market trough drivers by simpler models.
method Flexible DML average partial effect causal machine learning framework.
result Volatility of options-implied risk appetite and market liquidity are key drivers.
Paper proposes a risk index combining frequency and severity of abnormal driving patterns.
problem Assessing driver risk based on telematics data.
method Combines frequency of abnormal driving patterns with severity quantified through tail rarity.
result Developed a risk index that enables reliable discrimination and ranking of drivers.
We first study an optimal stopping problem in which a player (an agent) uses a discrete stopping time in order to stop optimally a payoff process whose risk is evaluated by a (non-linear) g-expectation. We then consider a non-zero-sum game on discrete stopping times with two agents who aim at minimizing their respect…
In this paper we will discuss the optimal risk transfer problems when risk measures are generated by G-expectations, and we present the relationship between inf-convolution of G-expectations and the inf-convolution of drivers G.
Synthetic telematics dataset created from insurance claims data.
problem Creating a reliable synthetic dataset for usage-based insurance models.
method Three-stage process using machine learning: binary classification, regression, and synthetic oversampling.
result Synthetic dataset remarkably similar to real data in risk assessment models.
CPCMs integrate causal drivers for robust portfolio optimization.
problem Degradation of classical portfolio models under structural breaks and lack of arbitrage consistency in machine learning.
method Causal PDE-Control Models integrating structural causal drivers, nonlinear filtering, and forward-backward PDE control.
result CPCM solvers achieve higher Sharpe ratios and lower turnover than benchmarks.
In the over-the-counter market in derivatives, we sometimes see large numbers of traders taking the same position and risk. When there is this kind of concentration in the market, the position impacts the pricings of all other derivatives and changes the behaviour of the underlying volatility in a nonlinear way. We mod…
Urban traffic systems worldwide are suffering from severe traffic safety problems. Traffic safety is affected by many complex factors, and heavily related to all drivers' behaviors involved in traffic system. Drivers with aggressive driving behaviors increase the risk of traffic accidents. In order to manage the safety…
Optimizes portfolios using neural network approximations of asset sensitivities to common drivers.
problem Optimizing portfolios with complex asset dynamics and common drivers.
method Model asset dynamics with PDEs, approximate sensitivities with neural networks, and use hierarchical clustering on sensitivity matrix for optimization.
result Achieves over-performance in portfolio optimization across various markets and datasets.
Study finds telemetric data not effective for predicting truck accident risk.
problem Estimating the risk of truck accidents using telemetric data.
method Used machine learning approaches: Random Forests and Convolutional Neural Networks.
result Neither approach successfully predicted truck accident risk.
Optimizes portfolios by identifying causal drivers of diversification.
problem Achieving efficient portfolio optimization based on asset and diversification dynamics.
method Commonality Principle, Reichenbach Common Cause Principle, conformal maps, Bayesian networks, correlation-based algorithms, neural networks, SDEs.
result Optimal portfolio diversification achieved through causal methodologies and sensitivity forecasting.
Hybrid ML ensemble predicts market risk and generates alpha.
problem Forecasting short-horizon market risk and generating alpha.
method Neural networks and tree-based voting models integrated for trading signal.
result Sharpe ratio of 2.51 and annualized CAPM alpha of +0.28.
Study dynamic portfolio choice under rotating drivers, revealing a new geometric structure.
problem Investment under changing drivers with mutual independence.
method Analyzes geometric structure of portfolio choice, focusing on drivers and their rotation.
result Optimal policy separates into static and hedging components, reflecting the dynamic nature of drivers.
This study identifies RwD crash patterns on rural two-lane highways under different lighting conditions.
problem Insufficient investigation of RwD crashes under varying lighting conditions.
method Data mining using association rules mining (ARM) on crash database.
result Interesting crash patterns and risk factors identified under different lighting conditions.
This study uses ARM to analyze pedestrian crashes under different lighting conditions.
problem Identifying crash risk factors under varying lighting conditions.
method Applied Association Rules Mining to Louisiana pedestrian crash data.
result Daylight crashes are associated with children, seniors, and older drivers.
We develop the first basic Operational Risk perspective on key risk management issues associated with the development of new forms of electronic currency in the real economy. In particular, we focus on understanding the development of new risks types and the evolution of current risk types as new components of financia…
Enhances resilience evaluation by using dynamic convex risk measures.
problem Capturing the full risk profile of financial positions under adverse conditions.
method Introduces a new resilience evaluation method using dynamic convex risk measures.
result Shows that the resilience evaluation can distinguish between positions with the same expected recovery but different conditional risk profiles.
AI helps Vancouver identify where off-street parking saves time and space.
problem On-street parking inefficiencies and associated costs in Vancouver.
method Developed AI models for on-street and off-street parking, comparing time costs.
result Many areas off-street parking saves time and space, aligning with city goals.
Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) can be significantly improved with effective driver action prediction (DAP). Predicting driver actions early and accurately can help mitigate the effects of potentially unsafe driving behaviors and avoid possible accidents. In this paper, we formulate driver action prediction a…
Real-time drowsiness detection on mobile phones reduces road trauma.
problem Driver drowsiness increases crash risk and road trauma.
method Depthwise separable 3D convolutions combined with early fusion of spatial and temporal information.
result Real-time drowsiness detection on mobile phones reduces road trauma.
Proposes a new framework for environmental CVA with robust wrong-way risk.
problem Limited operational implementations of translating environmental scenarios into CVA.
method Three components: hazard rate mapping, tail generators, and KL divergence-based wrong-way risk bound.
result Nature CVAs can vary significantly across different ecosystem generators.
We use the P&L on a particular class of swaps, representing variance and higher moments for log returns, as estimators in our empirical study on the S&P500 that investigates the factors determining variance and higher-moment risk premia. This class is the discretisation invariant sub-class of swaps with Neuberger's agg…
New method identifies drivers from car logs without reverse-engineering CAN protocol.
problem Identifying drivers from in-vehicle network logs without access to exact signal semantics.
method Machine learning techniques applied to off-the-shelf data.
result Driver re-identification accuracy of 75-85% on a dataset of 33 drivers.
Vacant taxi drivers' passenger seeking process in a road network generates additional vehicle miles traveled, adding congestion and pollution into the road network and the environment. This paper aims to employ a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to model idle e-hailing drivers' optimal sequential decisions in passenger-se…
Crowded trades cluster investors, affecting stock price stability.
problem Crowded trades lead to price instability and systemic risk.
method Market clustering measure using granular trading data.
result Market clustering has a causal effect on stock return distribution tails, especially positive tail.
The potential positive impact of autonomous driving and driver assistance technolo- gies have been a major impetus over the last decade. On the flip side, it has been a challenging problem to analyze the performance of human drivers or autonomous driving agents quantitatively. In this work, we propose a generic method …
We formalize causal separation in portfolio theory, deriving a closed-form projected Markowitz solution.
problem Portfolio optimization under causal separation conditions.
method Derive a closed-form solution for portfolio optimization using causal separation conditions.
result A closed-form projected Markowitz solution is derived under causal separation conditions.
Route Choice Models predict the route choices of travelers traversing an urban area. Most of the route choice models link route characteristics of alternative routes to those chosen by the drivers. The models play an important role in prediction of traffic levels on different routes and thus assist in development of ef…
Paper develops a model to assess capital requirement for demographic risk using stochastic methods.
problem Quantifying capital requirement for demographic risk in life insurance contracts.
method Stochastic model extending local GAAP to Solvency II framework, proving market consistency.
result Model highlights main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, comparing to GAAP.
We consider a diffusion approximation to an insurance risk model where an external driver models a stochastic environment. The insurer can buy reinsurance. Moreover, investment in a financial market is possible. The financial market is also driven by the environmental process. Our goal is to maximise terminal expected …
This paper proposes a market consistent valuation framework for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit, death benefit and surrender benefit features. The setup is based on a hybrid model for the financial market and uses time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes as risk drivers. Further, we allow for d…
This paper considers the problem of optimal liquidation of a position in a risky security in a financial market, where price evolution are risky and trades have an impact on price as well as uncertainty in the filling orders. The problem is formulated as a continuous time stochastic optimal control problem aiming at ma…
TNDE quantifies dynamic gene drivers from single-cell snapshots.
problem Reconstructing time-resolved regulatory effects in biological processes.
method Time-varying Network Driver Estimation (TNDE) using shared graph attention encoder and partial optimal transport.
result TNDE identifies stage-specific driver genes in mouse erythropoiesis.
The paper characterizes dynamic return and star-shaped risk measures via BSDEs.
problem Characterizing dynamic return and star-shaped risk measures.
method Characterization of star-shaped functionals and BSDEs.
result Existence of convex BSDEs with non-empty set of supersolutions.
ProMoD models human race drivers with probabilistic movement primitives and neural networks.
problem Challenging task of modeling human driver behavior due to variability and complexity.
method Modular framework with Probabilistic Movement Primitives, clothoids, and neural networks.
result Significant advantages in imitation accuracy and robustness compared to other algorithms.
In this work, we propose a method for learning driver models that account for variables that cannot be observed directly. When trained on a synthetic dataset, our models are able to learn encodings for vehicle trajectories that distinguish between four distinct classes of driver behavior. Such encodings are learned wit…
This paper introduces new risk measures for evaluating losses with varying time horizons.
problem Capturing horizon risk and cash non-additivity in risk evaluation.
method Uses BSDEs and shortfall approaches to develop h-generalized shortfall risk measures.
result Introduces hq-entropic risk measures as a new family of fully-dynamic risk measures.
Paper proposes personalized climate control for driver comfort.
problem Limited research on in-vehicle climate control and driver preferences.
method IoT platform for data collection, machine learning for driver behavior recognition, and personalized preference recommendation.
result Prototype demonstrates effective and accurate climate control for driver comfort.
Study on price formation among investors with exponential utility and liabilities.
problem Equilibrium price formation among investors with heterogeneous risk-averseness and liabilities.
method Mean-field game theory and mean-field backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE).
result Existence of equilibrium risk-premium process and market clearing in the large population limit.
Driver identification has emerged as a vital research field, where both practitioners and researchers investigate the potential of driver identification to enable a personalized driving experience. Within recent years, a selection of studies have reported that individuals could be perfectly identified based on their dr…
Develops a method to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia.
problem Predicting stock returns with time-varying risk premia while maintaining no-arbitrage restrictions.
method Penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings, incorporating penalization in the first pass and grouping in the second pass.
result The proposed method reduces prediction errors compared to other approaches.
Study assesses additional factors for identifying persistent alpha in pension funds.
problem Identify persistent alpha in pension funds using additional factors.
method Reproduces Fama and French's (2010) experiment with additional features and compares results to 3-factor model.
result Additional factors improve persistence of alpha assessment in pension funds.
For distributed computing environment, we consider the empirical risk minimization problem and propose a distributed and communication-efficient Newton-type optimization method. At every iteration, each worker locally finds an Approximate NewTon (ANT) direction, which is sent to the main driver. The main driver, then, …