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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for drifting models

Paper proposes a beta distribution method for detecting concept drift in adaptive classifiers.

problem Adaptive classifiers need to detect and respond to concept drift in real-time data streams.
method The paper introduces a beta distribution model to monitor model error and identify abnormal behavior as drift.
result The method effectively detects abrupt changes in model error, improving classifier performance.

A new approach switches between simple and complex models to handle concept drifts in regression tasks.

problem Handling concept drifts in regression models to maintain accurate predictions over time.
method Error Intersection Approach: switches between simple and complex models based on drift detection.
result The Error Intersection Approach significantly outperforms baselines in handling concept drifts in a real-world taxi demand dataset.

Paper proposes a method to automatically detect drift in machine learning models.

problem Detecting changes in class-label data distributions that affect model predictions.
method Self-evaluating predictive model degradation to detect concept drift.
result Effectiveness in automatically detecting and describing concept drift.

Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.

problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.

Estimates drift functions in SDEs using denoising diffusion models.

problem Estimating time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate SDEs.
method Formulates drift estimation as a denoising problem, trains a conditional diffusion model.
result Proposed estimator matches classical methods in low dimensions and remains competitive in higher dimensions.

This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.

problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

Framework monitors insurance pricing models for drift and recalibration.

problem Maintaining predictive performance of pricing models in evolving insurance portfolios.
method Formalizes deviance loss and Murphy's score, studies Gini score, develops monitoring framework.
result Framework guides decisions on refitting or recalibrating pricing models.

Detects data drift and outliers affecting ML model performance over time.

problem Detecting distribution changes between training and deployment datasets for machine learning models.
method Nonparametrically tests model prediction confidence distributions for changes using Change Point Models (CPMs). Also uses nonparametric outlier methods.
result Demonstrates robustness of the method under various levels of drift class contamination.

Adversarial validation detects concept drift in user targeting systems.

problem Concept drift in user targeting automation systems deteriorates model performance over time.
method Adversarial validation approach to detect and adapt to concept drift.
result Adversarial validation effectively addresses concept drift in user targeting systems.

Novel algorithm SAODE improves high-dimensional stream classification in seasonal data.

problem Handling seasonal concept drift in high-dimensional stream classification.
method SAODE classifier that includes time as a super parent to handle seasonal drift.
result SAODE consistently outperforms other methods in stream and concept drift classification.

Study improves survival analysis for credit risk by accounting for data drift.

problem Survival analysis in credit risk assumes a stationary data-generating process, but real-world data drift affects model performance.
method Proposes a dynamic joint modelling framework integrating longitudinal behavioural markers and hazard formulations, combined with drift-adaptive techniques.
result Proposed model outperforms classical survival models and drift-adaptive learners in various data drift scenarios.

New method improves prediction accuracy in business process mining by handling concept drift.

problem Improving prediction quality in business process mining affected by concept drift.
method Systematically analyzed and compared different data selection strategies for retraining machine learning models.
result Improved accuracy from 0.5400 to 0.7010 with concept drift handling.

Machine learning models fail due to concept and data drift during pandemic.

problem Machine learning models trained before the pandemic are unreliable during the pandemic.
method Detect and diagnose concept and data drift in models.
result Model resilience and robustness are crucial for future predictions.

The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.

problem Optimizing portfolios in a market with hidden Gaussian drift and random expert signals.
method Modeling the hidden drift using Kalman filters and solving the utility maximization problem with dynamic programming.
result Derivation of optimal portfolio weights and utility maximization under the given market conditions.

Proceed adapts models proactively against concept drift in online time series forecasting.

problem Concept drift causes forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts, reducing performance.
method Proceed estimates and translates concept drift into parameter adjustments, enhancing model resilience.
result Proceed brings more performance improvements than state-of-the-art online learning methods.

Paper studies identifiability and stability of drifting fields in generative modeling.

problem Identify and stabilize drifting fields in generative modeling.
method Introduces companion-elliptic kernel families to address limitations of Laplace kernel.
result Establishes field identifiability and demonstrates scalar observables for weak convergence.

CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.

This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.

problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.

Uniqueness found for elliptic equations with drift on manifolds.

problem Finding unique solutions to elliptic equations with drift on manifolds.
method Investigation in weighted Lebesgue spaces, focusing on conditions for uniqueness.
result Sharp conditions on drift term for uniqueness in polynomial volume growth manifolds.

FedElasticNet reduces communication costs and handles client drift in FL.

problem Expensive communication costs and client drift issues in federated learning.
method Leverages elastic net regularizers to sparsify local updates and limit client drift.
result FedElasticNet effectively resolves communication cost and client drift problems.

DDG-DA predicts future data distribution to adapt models for predictable concept drift.

problem Adapting models to streaming data with predictable concept drift.
method Train a predictor to forecast future data distribution, generate training samples, and train models on them.
result Significant improvement on multiple models in real-world tasks.

The paper explores identifiability and stability in drifting fields using companion-elliptic kernels.

problem Identifying and stabilizing drifting fields in generative modeling.
method Introduces companion-elliptic kernel families and analyzes their properties to address identifiability and stability issues.
result Established field identifiability for arbitrary Borel probability measures and demonstrated that field convergence alone does not guarantee weak convergence.

Detects data drift in deep learning models using neural embeddings.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution in deep learning models.
method Formulates drift detection in a sequential decision framework and introduces a loss function to balance false alarms and quick detection.
result Demonstrates improved ability to balance false alarms and quick detection in change detection.

ZDP detects drift in large language models without labels, proving key theorems and metrics.

problem Detecting drift in large language models without task labels or output evaluations.
method Zero-Direction Probing (ZDP) framework based on null directions of transformer activations, proving theoretical guarantees.
result Proves the Variance--Leak Theorem, Fisher Null-Conservation, Rank--Leak bound, and logarithmic-regret guarantee.