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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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4590134179 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for drift understanding

This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.

problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.

Gradient-based methods for games suffer from discrete update steps that cause drift, affecting performance.

problem Gradient-based methods for two-player games suffer from drift due to discrete update steps.
method Derived modified continuous dynamical systems to closely follow the discrete dynamics of games.
result Identified distinct components of discretization drift that can alter or destabilize game performance.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

We study incentivized exploration for the multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem where the players receive compensation for exploring arms other than the greedy choice and may provide biased feedback on reward. We seek to understand the impact of this drifted reward feedback by analyzing the performance of three instantiatio…

2019-11-12abs ↗pdf ↗

DRIFT uses neural flows to replace distributional regression models.

problem Lack of neural network representations for distributional regression models.
method Inverse flow transformations (DRIFT) for distributional regression.
result Neural representations in DRIFT match classical statistical methods in performance.

Investigates gradient descent dynamics and introduces new regularisation methods.

problem Understanding and mitigating gradient descent instabilities and interactions with smoothness regularisation.
method Derives continuous-time flows to account for discretisation drift, constructs learning rate schedules and regularisers.
result New regularisation methods improve performance in reinforcement learning.

Paper uses machine learning to analyze stock market anomalies, predicting drift direction and portfolio performance.

problem Capturing dynamics of Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift (PEAD) using machine learning.
method Uses Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with genetic algorithm optimization to analyze PEAD dynamics.
result Demonstrates how PEAD dynamics are influenced by different factors across sectors and quarters.

When constructing a classifier ensemble, diversity among the base classifiers is one of the important characteristics. Several studies have been made in the context of standard static data, in particular, when analyzing the relationship between a high ensemble predictive performance and the diversity of its components.…

2019-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

The Lie group Sol(p,q) is the semidirect product induced by the action of the real numbers R on the plane R^2 which is given by (x,y) --> (exp{p z} x, exp{-q z} y), where z is in R. Viewing Sol(p,q) as a 3-dimensional manifold, it carries a natural Riemannian metric and Laplace-Beltrami operator. We add a linear drift …

2011-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

SHIFT framework identifies subgroups with large ML model performance decay.

problem Large model performance decay in subgroups when deployed.
method Subgroup-scanning Hierarchical Inference Framework (SHIFT) for performance drift.
result SHIFT identifies interpretable subgroups with large performance decay and suggests targeted actions to mitigate it.
Virtual volatilityphysics.soc-ph

We introduce the concept of virtual volatility. This simple but new measure shows how to quantify the uncertainty in the forecast of the drift component of a random walk. The virtual volatility also is a useful tool in understanding the stochastic process for a given portfolio. In particular, and as an example, we were…

2006-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper analyzes stability and forgetting in score-based generative models.

problem Understanding the stability and long-time behavior of generative models.
method Quantitative bounds on sampling error using stability and forgetting properties of the Markov chain.
result Provides practical consequences of stability and contraction mechanism in sampling.

This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.

problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.

Market makers play an important role in providing liquidity to markets by continuously quoting prices at which they are willing to buy and sell, and managing inventory risk. In this paper, we build a multi-agent simulation of a dealer market and demonstrate that it can be used to understand the behavior of a reinforcem…

2019-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Classifiers operating in a dynamic, real world environment, are vulnerable to adversarial activity, which causes the data distribution to change over time. These changes are traditionally referred to as concept drift, and several approaches have been developed in literature to deal with the problem of drift handling an…

2018-03-24abs ↗pdf ↗

A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX, practices observed in interest-rate modelling, and the desire to develop a platform to b…

2015-04-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Classifies polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on asymptotically paraboloidal manifolds.

problem Classifying polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on specific types of manifolds.
method Inductive argument that alternates between constructing and asymptotically controlling drift-harmonic functions.
result All drift-harmonic functions with polynomial growth asymptotically separate variables and dimensions of spaces are computed.

Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.

problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.

Concept drift is formally defined as the change in joint distribution of a set of input variables X and a target variable y. The two types of drift that are extensively studied are real drift and virtual drift where the former is the change in posterior probabilities p(y|X) while the latter is the change in distributio…

2019-09-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a framework to detect adversarial concept drifts under poisoning attacks.

problem Adversarial concept drift in data streams.
method Augmented Restricted Boltzmann Machine with improved gradient computation and energy function.
result High robustness and efficacy of the proposed drift detection framework in adversarial scenarios.

We quantify forgetting in post-training models, distinguishing mass and drift.

problem Understanding and preventing forgetting in post-training generative models.
method Developed theoretical results under a two-mode mixture abstraction, formalizing mass and drift forgetting.
result Forgetting can be precisely quantified based on divergence direction, geometric overlap, and training regime.

CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.

Estimates drift functions in SDEs using denoising diffusion models.

problem Estimating time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate SDEs.
method Formulates drift estimation as a denoising problem, trains a conditional diffusion model.
result Proposed estimator matches classical methods in low dimensions and remains competitive in higher dimensions.

A new approach switches between simple and complex models to handle concept drifts in regression tasks.

problem Handling concept drifts in regression models to maintain accurate predictions over time.
method Error Intersection Approach: switches between simple and complex models based on drift detection.
result The Error Intersection Approach significantly outperforms baselines in handling concept drifts in a real-world taxi demand dataset.

Adversarial validation detects concept drift in user targeting systems.

problem Concept drift in user targeting automation systems deteriorates model performance over time.
method Adversarial validation approach to detect and adapt to concept drift.
result Adversarial validation effectively addresses concept drift in user targeting systems.

The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.

problem Optimizing portfolios in a market with hidden Gaussian drift and random expert signals.
method Modeling the hidden drift using Kalman filters and solving the utility maximization problem with dynamic programming.
result Derivation of optimal portfolio weights and utility maximization under the given market conditions.