Proposes a new method for conformal prediction under covariate shift with posterior drift.
problem Improving classification performance in target domains with limited training data.
method Weighted conformal classifier that leverages source and target samples.
result Demonstrates favorable asymptotic properties and practical utility.
This paper tackles continuous domain adaptation with a new approach.
problem Learning in non-stationary environments, especially domain drift.
method Variational domain-agnostic feature replay, composed of inference, generative, and solver modules.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach for practical usage.
In data stream mining, predictive models typically suffer drops in predictive performance due to concept drift. As enough data representing the new concept must be collected for the new concept to be well learnt, the predictive performance of existing models usually takes some time to recover from concept drift. To spe…
Paper extends transfer learning for decision rules, improving treatment rule estimation.
problem Estimating optimal individualized treatment rules under changing conditions.
method Bayes decision rules and low-dimensional empirical risk minimization.
result Consistent estimators and risk bounds established under mild conditions.
Transferring knowledge across many streaming processes remains an uncharted territory in the existing literature and features unique characteristics: no labelled instance of the target domain, covariate shift of source and target domain, different period of drifts in the source and target domains. Autonomous transfer l…
Two insurance companies collaborate to maximize the probability of none going bankrupt.
problem Maximizing the probability of no company bankruptcy in a correlated Brownian motion model.
method Analyzing optimal strategies and deriving explicit formulas for minimal ruin probability.
result Maximizing collaboration benefits when Brownian motions are positively correlated.
Estimates heat equation on shrinking Ricci solitons with uniform bounds.
problem Analyzing heat equation on shrinking Ricci solitons.
method Proved L2 estimate with time-dependent Gaussian weight. result Uniform bounds for heat equation along Ricci flow.
Semi-supervised anomaly detection is an approach to identify anomalies by learning the distribution of normal data. Backpropagation neural networks (i.e., BP-NNs) based approaches have recently drawn attention because of their good generalization capability. In a typical situation, BP-NN-based models are iteratively op…
Online learning rbfnet improves multi-horizon returns forecasts for financial time series.
problem Nonstationarity and concept drift in financial time series.
method Combines feature representation transfer with sequential optimisation.
result Online learning rbfnet outperforms random-walk and batch learners.
Investment strategy in uncertain markets improved by learning and risk-ambiguity preferences.
problem Investment in financial markets with unknown drift coefficients.
method Optimization under KMM approach, considering risk and ambiguity preferences.
result Optimal investment strategy can be adjusted based on prior drift distribution.
The paper optimizes interpolation schedules in generative models to improve sampling accuracy.
problem Improving sampling accuracy in generative models with fewer resources.
method Minimizing the averaged squared Lipschitzness of the drift field, using transfer formulas.
result Designed schedules yield more accurate fine-scale statistics at fixed integrator budget.
Adaptive transfer learning model for varying mechanisms across domains.
problem Improving inference in a target domain by leveraging related source domains with varying mechanisms.
method Semi-parametric domain-varying coefficient model (DVCM) for structured transfer learning.
result Minimax rate-optimal adaptive transfer learning estimator with provable negative transfer safeguards.
We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given probl…
Unified framework maps financial market dynamics using TE and KM, revealing directional information flow.
problem Challenges in traditional correlation analysis of financial markets, especially during crises.
method Combines Transfer Entropy (TE) and Kramers-Moyal (KM) expansion to analyze dynamic interactions among major indices.
result Increased directional information flow during crises, highlighting gold-dollar and oil-equity linkages.
Paper tackles nonparametric classification with privacy constraints, achieving optimal accuracy.
problem Nonparametric classification under distributed differential privacy constraints.
method Minimax and adaptive transfer learning, considering privacy, sample sizes, and heterogeneity.
result Developed an adaptive classifier achieving optimal misclassification rate with privacy constraints.
We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where the data distribution may shift between training and test time, and additional information about it may be available at test time. This relates to popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. Th…
Wealth redistribution through Fokker-Planck equation controls preserves Gini coefficient.
problem Preserving Gini coefficient through proportional wealth tax.
method Formulating optimal redistribution as a control problem for Fokker-Planck equation.
result Progressive taxes redistribute within policy-relevant timescales.
Human learners have the natural ability to use knowledge gained in one setting for learning in a different but related setting. This ability to transfer knowledge from one task to another is essential for effective learning. In this paper, we study transfer learning in the context of nonparametric classification based …
LLMs cause inconsistent financial outputs, smaller models are more reliable.
problem Inconsistent outputs from LLMs undermine auditability and trust in financial workflows.
method Finance-calibrated deterministic test harness, task-specific invariant checking, model classification, and cross-provider validation.
result Smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency, while larger models like GPT-OSS-120B have high drift.
Lyapunov-based analysis shows polynomial sample complexity for WCMDPs and RBs.
problem Learning in WCMDPs and RBs under a generative model.
method Lyapunov-based analysis framework.
result Near-optimal policies can be learned with polynomial complexity.
This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.
problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.
Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
problem Lack of standardized tools for quoting and hedging belief risk in prediction markets.
method Logit jump-diffusion model with risk-neutral drift, calibration pipeline, and coherent derivative layer.
result Model reduces forecast error compared to diffusion-only and probability-space baselines.
Identifies features most relevant to concept drift in data.
problem Identifying features most relevant to concept drift.
method Distinguishing between drift inducing and faithfully drifting features; deriving minimal subsets of features to characterize drift.
result Derives a detection algorithm for concept drift.
New time series generation models improve accuracy and correlation identification.
problem Generating accurate and correlated time series from limited data.
method Conditional Euler Generator (CEGEN) using Euler discretization of SDEs and Wasserstein metrics.
result CEGEN outperforms state-of-the-art models on various metrics and real-world datasets.
New method detects when models influence their own drift in real-time data streams.
problem Models can induce concept drift in real-time data streams.
method CheckerBoard Performative Drift Detection (CB-PDD)
result CB-PDD effectively detects performative drift in real-time data streams.
This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.
problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and formulated in various degrees of abstraction and mathematical coherence. In this contribu…
A new drift detection method based on autoregressive models.
problem Concept drift in real-world data leads to decreased model performance.
method Autoregressive based drift detection method (ADDM).
result ADDM outperforms state-of-the-art drift detection methods.
Adaptive sampling detects local concept drift with limited labels.
problem Detecting local concept drift in dynamic environments with scarce labels.
method Combines residual-based exploration and exploitation with EWMA monitoring.
result Superior performance in label efficiency and drift detection accuracy.
Algorithm detects concept drift and adapts models in streaming data.
problem Concept drift in streaming data renders models inaccurate.
method Adaptive learning algorithm that detects drifts and reacts to them.
result Risk competitive to an algorithm with perfect drift knowledge.
The paper explains how continuous language models can produce discrete, interpretable meanings.
problem Semantic collapse in continuous systems of large language models.
method Formalizing large language models as Continuous State Machines (CSMs) and analyzing the associated transfer operator.
result The leading eigenfunctions of the transfer operator induce a finite number of invariant meaning basins, explaining how continuous computation can produce discrete, interpretable semantics.
Classifiers operating in a dynamic, real world environment, are vulnerable to adversarial activity, which causes the data distribution to change over time. These changes are traditionally referred to as concept drift, and several approaches have been developed in literature to deal with the problem of drift handling an…
Classifies polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on asymptotically paraboloidal manifolds.
problem Classifying polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on specific types of manifolds.
method Inductive argument that alternates between constructing and asymptotically controlling drift-harmonic functions.
result All drift-harmonic functions with polynomial growth asymptotically separate variables and dimensions of spaces are computed.
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
New method detects drift in high-dimensional data.
problem Understanding and localizing concept drift in learning systems.
method Conformal predictions for drift localization.
result Our approach outperforms existing methods on image datasets.
Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.
problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.
Concept drift is formally defined as the change in joint distribution of a set of input variables X and a target variable y. The two types of drift that are extensively studied are real drift and virtual drift where the former is the change in posterior probabilities p(y|X) while the latter is the change in distributio…
PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.
problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.
This paper studies concept drift detectors for financial time series.
problem Improving accuracy on financial time series with concept drifts.
method Three simple concept drift detectors tailored to financial time series.
result Two of the detectors are as effective as state-of-the-art detectors.
Paper proposes a framework to detect adversarial concept drifts under poisoning attacks.
problem Adversarial concept drift in data streams.
method Augmented Restricted Boltzmann Machine with improved gradient computation and energy function.
result High robustness and efficacy of the proposed drift detection framework in adversarial scenarios.
Kernel-Gradient Drifting improves generative modeling for non-Euclidean data.
problem Challenges in generative modeling for non-Euclidean data.
method Replaces Euclidean displacement with kernel-induced directions, exposing score-based structure.
result Kernel-gradient drifting enables state-of-the-art one-step generation for non-Euclidean data.
A framework for evaluating and benchmarking concept drift detection methods
problem Data stream mining challenged by concept drift
method A novel benchmarking framework
result Fair comparisons of drift detection methods
A new method detects concept drift in streaming data using k-means space partitioning.
problem Detecting distribution changes in streaming data.
method Equal intensity k-means space partitioning (EI-kMeans) and heuristic sensitivity improvement.
result EI-kMeans improves drift detection accuracy and sensitivity.
Visual analytics tool detects and corrects concept drift in data streams.
problem Concept drift causes inaccurate predictions in evolving data.
method DriftVis combines drift detection and visualization.
result Visual analytics supports detection, examination, and correction of concept drift.
CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.
problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.
Gradient-based methods for games suffer from discrete update steps that cause drift, affecting performance.
problem Gradient-based methods for two-player games suffer from drift due to discrete update steps.
method Derived modified continuous dynamical systems to closely follow the discrete dynamics of games.
result Identified distinct components of discretization drift that can alter or destabilize game performance.
Paper introduces a method to explain concept drift using counterfactual explanations.
problem Understanding the features where concept drift occurs for better model adjustment.
method Formal definition and algorithm based on counterfactual explanations.
result Demonstrates usefulness of the method in various examples.
Estimates drift functions in SDEs using denoising diffusion models.
problem Estimating time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate SDEs.
method Formulates drift estimation as a denoising problem, trains a conditional diffusion model.
result Proposed estimator matches classical methods in low dimensions and remains competitive in higher dimensions.