New algorithm identifies dominant arm with high probability.
problem Identifying the arm with the highest realized reward in multi-armed bandits.
method Dominance score criterion and joint mixing and recycling mechanism.
result Identifies the best dominant arm with nearly optimal sample complexity.
We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results achieved by other investigators.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
The consultative papers for the Basel II Accord require rating systems to provide a ranking of obligors in the sense that the rating categories indicate the creditworthiness in terms of default probabilities. As a consequence, the default probabilities ought to present a monotonous function of the ordered rating catego…
Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little intuitive or empirical guidance is currently available, which renders the choice…
BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.
problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.
Critiques binary classification evaluation methods, advocating for proper scoring rules.
problem The dominance of top-K metrics and fixed-threshold evaluations in machine learning.
method Introduces a decision-theoretic framework mapping evaluation metrics to their use cases, and implements a clipped Brier score variant.
result Demonstrates the clinical utility of proper scoring rules through a Python package, exttt{briertools}.
In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing forecasts, it is then critical that the scoring function used for these purposes be co…
Transformers improve Finnish language modeling, achieving lower perplexity scores.
problem Improving language modeling for Finnish using deep learning models.
method Used BERT and Transformer-XL models in a sub-word setting, compared to LSTM.
result Transformer-XL outperforms LSTM, achieving a 27% better perplexity score.
MAS scores cluster size consistency from points, robust to label changes.
problem Desired uniformity in cluster sizes, stability under label perturbations.
method Mass Agreement Score (MAS) measures point-centric cluster size consistency, robust to label changes.
result MAS yields similar scores for partitions with similar bulk structure, sensitive to genuine redistribution of cluster mass.
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.
This work establishes near-minimax optimal guarantees for ODE-based samplers under mild assumptions.
problem Develop rigorous statistical guarantees for ODE-based samplers in generative modeling.
method Proposes a smooth regularized score estimator and refined convergence analysis.
result Achieves minimax rate in total variation distance for ODE-based samplers under mild assumptions.
Improves disentangled GAN training and selection without labeled data.
problem Challenges in training disentangled GANs, especially self-supervision.
method Contrastive Regularizer and ModelCentrality for unsupervised disentanglement.
result Significantly improved disentanglement scores without labeled data.
Unsupervised clustering reveals novel TBI phenotypes.
problem Inadequate categorization of traumatic brain injury (TBI) based on symptoms.
method Applied unsupervised learning with GLRM feature selection.
result Identified four novel TBI phenotypes with distinct feature profiles.
Identifies key industrial sectors in S&P 500 states.
problem Understanding changing market conditions in financial markets.
method Clustering algorithm, XAI relevance scores, Bayesian change point analysis.
result Dominant sectors (energy and IT) determine market states.
A new model for analyzing noisy, asynchronous high-frequency data.
problem Challenges in analyzing intraday correlations due to market microstructure noise and asynchronicity.
method Score-driven conditional correlation model using multivariate local-level model with score-driven covariance matrices.
result Market microstructure noise is effectively accounted for, leading to more accurate correlation estimates.
Study analyzes bias interactions in multimodal models using simulation-based methods.
problem Analyzing dynamic bias interactions in multimodal models to ensure fairness and equity.
method Simulation-based heuristic approach to compute bias scores for text-only, image-only, and multimodal embeddings.
result Multimodal bias interactions can be amplification, mitigation, or neutral, with text bias often dominant.
Connected domination numbers found for plane triangulations up to 13 vertices.
problem Finding connected domination numbers for plane triangulations.
method Analyzing triangulations of up to 13 vertices and proving the difference between connected and regular domination numbers can be arbitrarily large.
result Connected domination numbers for triangulations up to 13 vertices and upper bound for larger triangulations.
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
problem Prioritizing treatment when causal effects are hard to estimate.
method Decision-focused framework identifying conditions for proxy usefulness.
result Proxies can recover correct effect ordering under specific conditions.
Manifolds can be dominated by hypersurfaces in a sphere.
problem Dominating manifolds with hypersurfaces.
method Proving any smooth, closed, oriented manifold can be dominated by a codimension 1 submanifold of the sphere.
result Any smooth, closed, oriented manifold can be dominated by a codimension 1 submanifold of the sphere.
New method ranks multivariate distributions in SMOOP using q-dominance.
problem Lack of reliable methods to rank multivariate distributions in SMOOP.
method Introduces center-outward q-dominance and develops empirical test procedures.
result Proves q-dominance implies FSD and establishes a sample size threshold.
We provide scientific foundations for athletic performance prediction on an individual level, exposing the phenomenology of individual athletic running performance in the form of a low-rank model dominated by an individual power law. We present, evaluate, and compare a selection of methods for prediction of individual …
Study evaluates if LLMs have company-specific biases in financial sentiment analysis.
problem Evaluating if large language models exhibit company-specific biases in financial sentiment analysis.
method Comparing sentiment scores with and without company names, constructing economic models, and empirical analysis.
result LLMs show company-specific biases in sentiment analysis, impacting investor behavior and stock prices.
New framework for ranking distributions using variable fractional parameters.
problem Ordering distributions with varying steepness and local non-concavities.
method Introducing a function γ:Ro[0,1] to replace the fixed parameter in fractional SD. result Enables ranking of a broader range of distributions and incorporates dynamic greediness.
We show that non-domination results for targets that are not dominated by products are stable under Cartesian products.
DiffGBM improves tree-based models for tabular regression by making their design defaults explicit and tunable.
problem Improving tree-based models for tabular regression without neural density estimators.
method Explicitly exposes and makes tunable the design defaults of tree-based models, using a Gaussian-path flow-matching trainer and a score-flex space.
result Selected configurations of DiffGBM outperform the published baseline on all eleven tabular benchmarks, with the best aggregate CRPS skill.
A new family of stochastic dominance orders based on distortion functions.
problem Determining a continuum of dominance relations for risk assessment.
method Introducing H-distorted stochastic dominance, a generalized family of stochastic orders.
result Power-distorted stochastic dominance is particularly appealing due to its simplicity and statistical interpretations.
Research examines when 4-manifolds are dominated by geometric ones.
problem When is an orientable closed 4-manifold dominated by another?
method Focuses on geometric or fibred cases.
result Characterizes conditions for domination.
Automatically evaluates image quality based on human judgment.
problem Difficulty in rigorously evaluating generated image quality.
method Generative model embeddings, human labels regression, and statistical matching.
result 66% accuracy in predicting human scores of image realism.
3-manifolds can virtually dominate others with positive simplicial volume.
problem Domination of 3-manifolds with positive simplicial volume.
method Proving existence of finite covers with degree-1 maps.
result Virtual domination of 3-manifolds with positive simplicial volume.
Geometric analysis of ROC and PR curves for binary classification.
problem Understanding classifier behavior and selection of optimal operating points.
method Geometric perspective on ROC and PR curves, focusing on the composition function G. result Many binary classification metrics are functions of G=Fp∘Fn−1, facilitating better classifier optimization. ETM identifies field-specific keywords in text classification.
problem Unsupervised text classification with field-specific keywords.
method Weighted Lasso penalty and pairwise Kullback-Leibler divergence penalty for topic separation.
result ETM improves topic coherence by 22% and 10% compared to LDA.
Study domination between non-Fuchsian surface group representations and anti-de Sitter geometry.
problem Domination problem between non-Fuchsian representations of closed surface groups.
method Analysis of branched harmonic immersions and construction of anti-de Sitter 3-manifolds.
result Found that representations admitting branched harmonic immersions dominate other representations, and constructed large families of branched anti-de Sitter 3-manifolds.
Measures mode separation in high-dimensional densities via a reversible diffusion process.
problem Quantifying how sharply a distribution fragments into barrier-separated clusters in high dimensions.
method A unique reversible diffusion process with f as stationary distribution, extracting SSA and DA from its autocovariance matrix.
result Empirical autocovariance spectrum and readouts (SSA, DA) quantify mode separation using only samples and pretrained score-based models.
Dominant knots have isomorphic Seifert and Tait graphs.
problem Understanding knot dominance through graph isomorphism.
method Examined alternating knots and their Seifert and Tait graphs.
result Isomorphic Seifert and Tait graphs indicate dominant knots.
New homology theory connects graph domination to subtle algebraic structures.
problem Understanding graph domination through algebraic homology.
method Interpreting überhomology as poset homology and showing its functorial properties.
result The Euler characteristic of bold homology equals the evaluation of the connected domination polynomial.
3-manifolds can be virtually dominated by maps of degree 8.
problem Understanding virtual domination of 3-manifolds.
method Proving existence of finite covers with specific map properties.
result Virtual 8-dominance of 3-manifolds.
Odd-dimensional manifolds have contact maps of non-zero degree.
problem Contact domination in odd-dimensional manifolds.
method Proving existence of maps from tight contact manifolds.
result Existence of non-zero degree maps from Liouville-fillable but not Weinstein-fillable contact manifolds.
Unified framework for efficient Frank-Wolfe optimization of Dominant Set Clustering.
problem Optimizing Dominant Set Clustering with various Frank-Wolfe algorithms.
method Unified framework for pairwise, standard, and away-steps Frank-Wolfe algorithms, with explicit convergence rates.
result Explicit convergence rates for Frank-Wolfe methods in Dominant Set Clustering.
New EI strategies using OWA and SSD for excess return.
problem Selecting EI portfolios that stochastically dominate a benchmark.
method Proposes a new OWA-based EI model and introduces a new SSD criterion.
result OWA-based EI portfolios stochastically dominate a benchmark and generate excess return.
Go-Explore improves performance on hard-exploration problems in Atari games.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning, especially with sparse or deceptive rewards.
method Exploits principles of remembering states, returning to promising states, and solving simulated environments.
result Scores significantly higher than previous state-of-the-art on Montezuma's Revenge and Pitfall.
The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
Finite simplicial complexes dominate certain manifolds with a bounded number of simplices.
problem Understanding the finite domination of manifolds by simplicial complexes.
method Proving that a manifold can be dominated by the n-skeleton of a finite simplicial complex with a bounded number of simplices. result The total number of simplices in the n-skeleton is bounded above by a constant depending only on n and the embolic volume of the manifold. New method decomposes local projections to reveal historical drivers of estimates.
problem Uncertainty in interpreting local projections due to black-box nature.
method Decomposes LP estimates into contributions of historical events, interpreting weights as shocks and proximity scores.
result Dominant historical events drive impulse response estimates, revealing underlying mechanisms.
Proposes new rule for ranking investment prospects over long horizons.
problem Ranking investment prospects over long horizons considering bounded risk aversion.
method Introduces asymptotic fractional-order stochastic dominance with bounded relative risk aversion.
result Establishes equivalent conditions for the new rule under lognormal returns without mean non-negativity constraint.
Develops a new solver for optimizing with stochastic dominance constraints.
problem Optimizing with stochastic dominance constraints is computationally expensive and impractical.
method Introduces Light Stochastic Dominance Solver (light-SD) that uses Lagrangian properties and surrogate approximation.
result The light-SD solver demonstrates superior performance on various problems.
Solves risk minimization problem with SSD constraints.
problem Finding SSD-minimal quantile function under mixed constraints.
method Explicitly works out SSD-minimal solution and relates to Skorokhod problem.
result Explicit solution to risk minimizing problem.
Paper extends stochastic dominance for compound binomial distributions.
problem Stochastic dominance for infinite-mean random variables.
method Investigates properties and inclusion relationships of distribution classes, extends results to compound binomial distributions.
result Establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for first-order stochastic dominance preservation.