Study distortion risk measures for step-weighted distributions.
problem Analyzing risk measures for specific distribution types.
method Investigate distortion risk measures of step-weighted distributions.
result Developed methods for calculating risk measures.
The paper analyzes skewness and kurtosis measures for skew-elliptical distributions.
problem Examining skewness and kurtosis measures for skew-elliptical distributions.
method Deriving exact expressions for skewness and kurtosis measures for skew-elliptical distributions, constructing test statistics, and comparing measures through simulations and real data analysis.
result Exact expressions and test statistics for skewness and kurtosis measures for various skew-elliptical distributions.
The paper studies robust risk measures with linear penalties under uncertain distributions.
problem Risk measurement under distributional uncertainty.
method Robust distortion risk measures with linear penalty function under distributional constraints.
result Explicit characterization of optimal quantile distribution and value function.
Paper defines new risk measures for elliptical distributions.
problem Risk measurement for elliptical distributions.
method DTM, DTS, DTK definitions and formula derivation for specific distributions.
result Explicit formulas for DTE, DTV, DTS, and DTK for various distributions.
A new framework tightens risk measure confidence bounds.
problem Improving confidence bounds for various risk measures.
method Distribution optimization framework with two estimation schemes based on concentration bounds.
result Consistently tighter confidence bounds compared to previous methods.
Paper quantifies distortion risk measures' robustness to distributional uncertainty.
problem Quantifying risk measures' robustness to distributional uncertainty.
method Employing isotonic projections, the paper derives bounds on distortion risk measures' values.
result Sharp bounds on distortion risk measures' values are provided, especially for Value-at-Risk and Range-Value-at-Risk.
The paper analyzes extreme risk measures with limited distributional information.
problem Investigating risk measures under partial knowledge of distribution moments and shape.
method Employing probability inequalities and modified Schwarz inequality to derive bounds on distortion risk measures.
result Unified framework for calculating best- and worst-case scenarios of distortion risk measures.
The paper addresses evaluating survival predictions using discrimination measures, finding a robust method to convert distributions to risks.
problem Evaluating survival distribution predictions with discrimination measures is challenging and often leads to unfair comparisons.
method The paper surveys existing methods and recommends summing over the predicted cumulative hazard as the most robust method to convert distributions to risks.
result Summing over the predicted cumulative hazard is the most robust method to convert distribution predictions to risk predictions.
Researchers calculated EVaR for various distributions using Lambert function.
problem Difficulty in finding analytical representation of EVaR measure.
method Used Lambert function to calculate EVaR for multiple distributions.
result Successfully calculated EVaR for 7 specific distributions.
Kaimanovich and Masur showed that a random walk on the mapping class group for an initial distribution with finite first moment and whose support generates a non-elementary subgroup, converges almost surely to a point in the space PMF of projective measured foliations on the surface. This defines a harmonic measure on …
Optimizes risk measures given known marginal distributions of two unknown factors.
problem Determining an upper bound for spectral risk measures with unknown joint distribution.
method Introduces Maximum Spectral Measure (MSP) as a worst-case risk measure, formulated as an optimization problem with a more general objective function.
result Characterizes the continuity properties of the optimal value function and optimal solution set with respect to marginal distributions.
A new framework for measuring uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Uncertainty measures for second-order distributions in machine learning models have theoretical flaws.
method Formal criteria and a general framework based on the Wasserstein distance.
result The Wasserstein distance-based measure satisfies all proposed criteria for meaningful uncertainty measures.
Foster and Hart proposed an operational measure of riskiness for discrete random variables. We show that their defining equation has no solution for many common continuous distributions including many uniform distributions, e.g. We show how to extend consistently the definition of riskiness to continuous random variabl…
A new measure k-variance captures local distributional shape.
problem Summarizing distributional shape with local information.
method Random bipartite matchings and stochastic approximation.
result Easily approximated k-variance measures capture local distributional properties. The paper proposes a framework for information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures.
problem The need for reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty in machine learning.
method Revisiting core concepts, categorizing predictive uncertainty measures based on model and approximation of true distribution.
result Identification of conditions under which certain predictive uncertainty measures excel.
Unified framework for global and local two-sample conditional distribution testing.
problem Testing equality of two conditional distributions.
method Distance and kernel methods, conditional U-statistics, local bootstrap.
result Developed reliable global and local tests.
Paper develops a new generalization bound using PAC-Bayes theory and Gibbs distributions.
problem Limits of traditional generalization bounds due to complexity measures.
method Leverages PAC-Bayes bounds with Gibbs distributions to derive a flexible generalization bound.
result Derives a generalization bound that can adapt to both hypothesis class and task complexity.
New method uses G-expectation for financial risk measurement.
problem Measuring uncertainty in financial time series.
method Introducing G-normal distribution, applying max-mean estimators, and using autoregressive models.
result G-VaR model outperforms other VaR predictors in risk prediction.
Sharp bounds found for various risk measures using generalized FGM copulas.
problem Finding sharp bounds for risk measures in high dimensions.
method Proved that generalized FGM copulas form a convex polytope, used this structure to find bounds for risk measures.
result Sharp analytical bounds for convex risk measures in the class of generalized FGM copulas.
Causal Imitation Learning handles noisy measurements and distribution shifts.
problem Learning from noisy state observations and distributional shifts.
method Causal inference framework and adversarial RKHS learning.
result Improved robustness to distribution shifts compared to standard methods.
Understanding proper distance measures between distributions is at the core of several learning tasks such as generative models, domain adaptation, clustering, etc. In this work, we focus on mixture distributions that arise naturally in several application domains where the data contains different sub-populations. For …
We consider concepts and models for measuring inequality in the distribution of resources with a focus on how inequality varies as a function of covariates. Lorenz introduced a device for measuring inequality in the distribution of income that indicates how much the incomes below the uth quantile fall short of the…
The paper derives risk measures for metalog distributions.
problem Deriving risk measures for metalog distributions.
method Closed-form expressions for Conditional Value at Risk and first-order partial moments.
result First-order partial moments are convex with respect to metalog parameters.
Risk measures applied to dynamic Markov processes with varying risk aversion.
problem Investigating dynamic risk measures in Markov decision processes with varying risk aversion.
method Distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, applied to Markov decision processes with latent costs and random actions.
result Existence of optimal policies in finite and infinite time horizons under mild assumptions.
Study shows singularity of stationary measure on Furstenberg boundary for certain random walks.
problem Singularity of stationary measure on Furstenberg boundary for random walks.
method Analysis of random walks on semisimple Lie groups with specific properties.
result Stationary measure is singular to Lebesgue measure in certain cases.
Paper proposes robust risk measures for non-negative risks with partial information.
problem Tackles robustness of distortion risk measures under distributional uncertainty.
method Introduces new uncertainty sets and derives closed-form expressions for risk maximization.
result Derives closed-form expressions for risk maximization over uncertainty sets.
This paper studies convergence behavior of latent mixing measures that arise in finite and infinite mixture models, using transportation distances (i.e., Wasserstein metrics). The relationship between Wasserstein distances on the space of mixing measures and f-divergence functionals such as Hellinger and Kullback-Leibl…
Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
Paper justifies ideal point forecasts as measurable, clarifying conditions for their existence.
problem Justifying ideal point forecasts as measurable random variables.
method Clarifying and establishing measurability conditions for a wide class of functionals.
result Ideal point forecasts are shown to be measurable, providing theoretical justification.
This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures …
The paper extends risk measures to two-step approximations and studies log-concave distributions.
problem Extending classical risk measures to two-step approximations.
method Optimization problem for determining optimal regime thresholds and values for log-concave distributions.
result Conditions for the uniqueness of regime changing in log-concave distributions.
Paper introduces CWDAE for better synthetic data generation.
problem Measuring discrepancy between generative and ground-truth distributions.
method Introduces mixture Cramer-Wold distance for joint and marginal distributional learning.
result CWDAE shows remarkable performance in generating synthetic data.
Detects out-of-distribution sentences in Neural Machine Translation.
problem Identifying sentences from a different language than the training data.
method Developed a new uncertainty measure for long sequences of words in Transformers.
result Shows ability to identify Dutch sentences as German input.
New algorithm speeds Bayesian nonparametric model inference.
problem Slow inference in Bayesian nonparametric models.
method Decompose random measures into finite and infinite sub-measures; use different algorithms for each.
result Hybrid algorithm improves scalability and mixing.
Defines a similarity measure for classification distributions.
problem Measuring similarity between classification distributions.
method Proposes task similarity, a novel measure quantifying performance of source distributions on target distributions.
result Empirical task similarity correlates with transfer efficiency and semantic similarity of source distributions.
The area under the ROC curve is widely used as a measure of performance of classification rules. However, it has recently been shown that the measure is fundamentally incoherent, in the sense that it treats the relative severities of misclassifications differently when different classifiers are used. To overcome this, …
Regulation and risk management in banks depend on underlying risk measures. In general this is the only purpose that is seen for risk measures. In this paper we suggest that the reporting of risk measures can be used to determine the loss distribution function for a financial entity. We demonstrate that a lack of suffi…
In this paper we derive variability measures for the conditional probability distributions of a pair of random variables, and we study its application in the inference of causal-effect relationships. We also study the combination of the proposed measures with standard statistical measures in the the framework of the Ch…
The abstract discusses extending learning objectives to measure theory for better generalization.
problem Improving out-of-distribution generalization and weakly-supervised learning.
method Extending variational learning objectives to measures.
result New objectives on measures may lead to practical algorithms.
Improved measure of predictive uncertainty for machine learning models.
problem Current measure of predictive uncertainty assumes BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to true model's distribution.
method Introduced a new measure based on information theory to correct the assumption.
result Our measure behaves more reasonably in synthetic tasks and is advantageous in real-world applications.
Profile entropy measures learnability and compressibility of discrete distributions.
problem Understanding the learnability and compressibility of discrete distributions.
method Investigates profile entropy, showing its role in estimation, inference, and compression.
result Profile entropy is a fundamental measure unifying estimation, inference, and compression.
Paper proposes a new DRL algorithm optimizing Spectral Risk Measures for better risk management.
problem Inconsistencies and conservatism in existing risk measures in DRL.
method Optimizes a broader class of static Spectral Risk Measures (SRM) in DRL.
result Demonstrates improved performance over existing risk-neutral and risk-sensitive DRL models.
A new variable importance measure for DRFs detects broader impacts on output distributions.
problem Estimating full conditional distributions of multivariate outputs given inputs.
method Based on the drop and relearn principle and MMD distance.
result Consistent and high-performing variable importance measure for DRFs.
We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The…
New similarity measure for covariate shift improves nonparametric regression rates.
problem Improving nonparametric regression under covariate shift.
method Introducing a new similarity measure based on probability ratios.
result Shows a sharper rate of convergence compared to transfer exponent.
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that r…
New measure captures differences across entire distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
problem Capturing differences across entire distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
method Entropic optimal transport measure, statistical functional, smooth transformation of embeddings.
result Established first-order and second-order pathwise differentiability.
A new multivariate distribution possessing arbitrarily parametrized and positively dependent univariate Pareto margins is introduced. Unlike the probability law of Asimit et al. (2010) [Asimit, V., Furman, E. and Vernic, R. (2010) On a multivariate Pareto distribution. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 46(2), 308-31…