Using available data from the New York stock market (NYSM) we test four different bi-parametric models to fit the correspondent volume-price distributions at each -minute lag: the Gamma distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, the Weibull distribution and the log-normal distribution. The volume-price data, whi…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “distributional evolution”
Unified framework for non-uniform materials evolving over time.
problem Dealing with non-uniform materials evolving over time.
method Constructing a material groupoid and material distribution.
result Unified framework for general non-uniform evolution materials.
New geometric model explains material evolution in morphogenesis.
problem Understanding non-uniform processes of material evolution.
method Groupoid theory and continuous distributions.
result Explicit equation for material distributions.
The paper proposes a method to learn evolving multivariate distributions from sample paths.
problem Learning the temporal evolution of multivariate densities from sample data.
method Normalizing flows to construct time-dependent mappings.
result The method can approximate evolving probability density functions from observed data.
We present a framework for describing the evolution of stochastic observables having a non-stationary distribution of values. The framework is applied to empirical volume-prices from assets traded at the New York stock exchange. Using Kullback-Leibler divergence we evaluate the best model out from four biparametric mod…
Paper proposes an alternative to MCMC for sampling in energy-based models.
problem Difficulty in generating samples from the current energy function in contrastive approaches.
method Viewing the evolution of the modeling distribution as the evolution of the energy function and samples from this distribution along a time-dependent vector field.
result The proposed method efficiently matches the current distribution in a finite time, unlike MCMC.
This paper studies the critical dynamics of random surfaces, focusing on area and genus evolution.
problem Understanding the time evolution of random surfaces and their genus.
method Analyzes the dynamics of area and genus using Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and critical phenomena.
result The genus of surfaces evolves into two phases: planar surfaces and foamy surfaces.
Quantum walks model financial returns with flexibility and asymmetry.
problem Accurate modeling of financial asset price dynamics.
method Discrete-time quantum walks to model asset price evolution.
result Quantum walk models can generate asymmetric return distributions and higher probabilities for extreme events.
Evolution of the distribution of wealth in an economic environment driven by local Nash equilibriaq-fin.GN
We present and analyze a model for the evolution of the wealth distribution within a heterogeneous economic environment. The model considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game theoretical framework, through fairly general assumptions on the cost function. This evolution drives the dynamic of the agents i…
Study evolution equations on Lie groupoids using Fourier integral operators.
problem Solving evolution equations on Lie groupoids.
method Developed calculus of Fourier integral operators and used them to study the fundamental solution of the evolution equation.
result Developed a method to find the fundamental solution of the evolution equation on Lie groupoids.
New method estimates Schrödinger bridges using ML techniques.
problem Finding most likely stochastic evolution between two distributions.
method Equivalence with maximum likelihood estimation, numerical Gaussian process approach.
result Direct application of ML techniques for SBP estimation.
The paper proposes an evolution-based approach to estimate causal effects in interference networks without fully observing the network structure.
problem Estimating causal effects in complex systems with unobserved interaction pathways.
method An evolution-based approach that characterizes how outcomes change across observation rounds in response to interventions, using an exposure-mapping perspective.
result The approach identifies minimal structural conditions under which evolution mappings exist, enabling consistent learning about heterogeneous spillover effects.
Theory explains power-law distributions without complex models.
problem Understanding power-law distributions in geometrically growing systems.
method Developed a theory of geometrically growing systems and applied it to explain various distributions.
result The geometrically growing system's distribution flattens over time, increasing relative size ratios.
We find a remarkable time persistence of various proxies for the kurtosis (p-kurtosis) of the intraday returns distribution for the S&P500 index and this permits a significant measure of their evolution from 1983 to 2004. There appears a long time scale dramatic variation of the p-kurtosis uncorrelated with the variati…
Natural Evolution Strategiesstat.ML
This paper presents Natural Evolution Strategies (NES), a recent family of algorithms that constitute a more principled approach to black-box optimization than established evolutionary algorithms. NES maintains a parameterized distribution on the set of solution candidates, and the natural gradient is used to update th…
An equation for the evolution of the distribution of wealth in a population of economic agents making binary transactions with a constant total amount of "money" has recently been proposed by one of us (RLR). This equation takes the form of an iterated nonlinear map of the distribution of wealth. The equilibrium distri…
Structured Monte Carlo Sampling for Nonisotropic Distributions via Determinantal Point Processescs.LG
We propose a new class of structured methods for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, called DPPMC, designed for high-dimensional nonisotropic distributions where samples are correlated to reduce the variance of the estimator via determinantal point processes. We successfully apply DPPMCs to problems involving nonisotropic distr…
Bayesian-Deep Learning model predicts Covid-19 evolution in Spain.
problem Estimating the future evolution of Covid-19 in Spain.
method Combines DL techniques with Bayesian Poisson-Gamma model for counts.
result Allows prediction of future evolution and estimation of scenarios.
The modeling of time series is becoming increasingly critical in a wide variety of applications. Overall, data evolves by following different patterns, which are generally caused by different user behaviors. Given a time series, we define the evolution gene to capture the latent user behaviors and to describe how the b…
Model financial markets using open quantum systems to understand market imperfections.
problem Understanding market imperfections through imperfect trading mechanisms.
method Using open quantum systems to represent financial markets, characterizing orbits, and analyzing reduced density matrices.
result Non-classical modes of time evolution can incorporate factors like illiquid trades and imperfect trading mechanisms.
Increasing Returns to Scale, Dynamics of Industrial Structure and Size Distribution of Firmscond-mat.stat-mech
A model is presented of the market dynamics to emphasis the effects of increasing returns to scale, including the description of the born and death of the adaptive producers. The evolution of market structure and its behavior with the technological shocks are discussed. Its dynamics is in good agreement with some empir…
AI helps forecasters understand TC convective evolution before intensification.
problem Challenges in extracting scientific insights from complex TC data.
method Combining AI prediction algorithms and classical statistical inference.
result Identifies patterns in TC convective structure leading to intensification.
We find the explicit expression for the equilibrium wealth distribution of the Directed Random Market process, recently introduced by Martínez-Martínez and López-Ruiz, which turns out to be a Gamma distribution with shape parameter . We also prove the convergence of the discrete-time process describing the…
Based on the stochastic model proposed by Patriarca-Kaski-Chakraborti that describes the exchange of wealth between economic agents, we analyze the evolution of the corresponding economies under the assumption of a Gaussian background, modeling the exchange parameter . We demonstrate, that within Gaussian noise,…
The unfair consequences of equal opportunities: comparing exchange models of wealth distributionnlin.AO
Simple agent based exchange models are a commonplace in the study of wealth distribution of artificial societies. Generally, each agent is characterized by its wealth and by a risk-aversion factor, and random exchanges between agents allow for a redistribution of the wealth. However, the detailed influence of the amoun…
Evolution Strategies (ES) emerged as a scalable alternative to popular Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques, providing an almost perfect speedup when distributed across hundreds of CPU cores thanks to a reduced communication overhead. Despite providing large improvements in wall-clock time, ES is data inefficient whe…
We develop a model for the evolution of wealth in a non-conservative economic environment, extending a theory developed earlier by the authors. The model considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game theoretical framework. This evolution drives the dynamic of the agents in both wealth and economic configu…
We introduce variational approximations for curve evolutions in two-dimensional Riemannian manifolds that are conformally flat, i.e.\ conformally equivalent to the Euclidean space. Examples include the hyperbolic plane, the hyperbolic disk, the elliptic plane as well as any conformal parameterization of a two-dimension…
The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. T…
The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of income production and dissipation for any person above 15 years of age. The model…
Asynchronous event sequences are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. In this work, we tackle the task of predicting the next event (given a history), and how this prediction changes with the passage of time. Since at some time points (e.g. predictions far into the future) we might not be abl…
We study the limiting behaviour of the empirical measure of a system of diffusions interacting through their ranks when the number of diffusions tends to infinity. We prove that the limiting dynamics is given by a McKean-Vlasov evolution equation. Moreover, we show that in a wide range of cases the evolution of the cum…
New model explains volatility after extreme stock market events.
problem Understanding volatility dynamics after extreme stock market events.
method Proposed a new dynamical model using high frequency minute data.
result Volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay initially and a power law decay later.
A Distribution-to-Distribution Neural Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Dynamical Systemsstat.ML
Develops a neural framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems using trajectory-oriented approaches.
method D2D neural probabilistic forecasting framework using kernel mean embeddings and mixture density networks.
result The D2D model captures distributional evolution in chaotic systems and produces skillful probabilistic forecasts.
Topic models have proven to be a useful tool for discovering latent structures in document collections. However, most document collections often come as temporal streams and thus several aspects of the latent structure such as the number of topics, the topics' distribution and popularity are time-evolving. Several mode…
We consider learning two layer neural networks using stochastic gradient descent. The mean-field description of this learning dynamics approximates the evolution of the network weights by an evolution in the space of probability distributions in (where is the number of parameters associated to each neuron). T…
New samplers minimize KL divergence for constrained and non-Euclidean geometries.
problem Efficient sampling from constrained and non-Euclidean distributions.
method Stein Variational Mirror Descent and Mirrored Stein Variational Gradient Descent.
result New samplers converge more rapidly and accurately than prior methods.
Dynamical Stationarity as a Result of Sustained Random Growthcond-mat.stat-mech
In sustained growth with random dynamics stationary distributions can exist without detailed balance. This suggests thermodynamical behavior in fast growing complex systems. In order to model such phenomena we apply both a discrete and a continuous master equation. The derivation of elementary rates from known stationa…
Modeling glucose distribution changes over time using neural ODEs.
problem Analyzing how continuous glucose distribution changes over time in diabetic patients.
method Combines Gaussian mixture, MMD, and Neural ODE to model temporal evolution of glucose distribution.
result Highly interpretable model detects subtle distribution shifts and remains computationally efficient.
Flow-based models use ODEs to generate complex data distributions.
problem Generating high-dimensional data with complex probability distributions.
method Flow-based models use invertible mappings governed by ODEs to capture these distributions.
result Flow-based models provide exact likelihood estimation and efficient sampling.
The twentieth century was a period of outstanding economic growth together with an unequal income distribution. This paper analyses the international distribution of growth rates and its dynamics during the twentieth century. We show that the whole century is characterized by a high heterogeneity in the distribution of…
DDG-DA predicts future data distribution to adapt models for predictable concept drift.
problem Adapting models to streaming data with predictable concept drift.
method Train a predictor to forecast future data distribution, generate training samples, and train models on them.
result Significant improvement on multiple models in real-world tasks.
An array system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economy evolution. The local dynamics of each map or agent is controlled by two parameters. One of them represents the growth capacity of the agent and the other one is a control term representing the local environmental pressure which avoids an exponential gro…
We recently showed that the S&P500 stock market index is well described by Tsallis non-extensive statistics and nonlinear Fokker-Planck time evolution. We argued that these results should be applicable to a broad range of markets and exchanges where anomalous diffusion and `heavy' tails of the distribution are present.…
The waiting-time distribution of LIFFE bond futurescond-mat.dis-nn
We apply the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) framework, introduced in finance by Scalas et al., to the analysis of the probability distribution of time intervals between two consecutive trades in the case of BTP futures prices traded at LIFFE in 1997. Results corroborate the validity of the CTRW approach for the des…
Paper uses RNNs to design LDPC codes for binary erasure channels.
problem Designing capacity-approaching LDPC codes for binary erasure channels.
method Model Density Evolution using RNNs to determine LDPC code coefficients and structure.
result NDE improves LDPC design performance and complexity compared to differential evolution.
The calculus correspondence has been known to exist between generic pedal evolutions and generic wave front evolutions. In this paper, we first extend the known results on the calculus correspondence to evolutions with multi-parameters, and then give applications of calculus correspondence. Moreover, we discuss the pos…
Geometric QHD tests improve hub detection in correlated data.
problem Detecting hubs in correlated data with evolving correlations.
method Geometric QHD tests combining QCD and QHD, clustering.
result Improved hub detection in correlated data.