A new measure scales MMD to assess distribution closeness.
problem Testing statistical significance of distribution closeness.
method Norm-adaptive MMD (NAMMD) for distributional discrepancy.
result NAMMD-based DCT has higher test power than MMD-based DCT.
Study on heavy tails in closing auction returns, explaining imbalance through limit order submission.
problem Understanding heavy tails in closing auction return distributions.
method Used the stochastic call auction model of Derksen et al. (2020a) to derive and verify a relation between tail exponents.
result Large closing price fluctuations are not caused by large market orders, but by imbalance in limit orders.
Historical returns depend on historical closing prices and distributions. We describe how to compute adjusted closing prices from closing price/distribution data with an emphasis on spreadsheet implementation. Then the growth of a security from one date to another (1 + total return) is just the ratio of the correspondi…
Survey on closed-form Fisher-Rao distance expressions.
problem Finding closed-form expressions for Fisher-Rao distance.
method Collect and present examples of closed-form expressions for Fisher-Rao distance of discrete and continuous distributions.
result Presentation of closed-form expressions for Fisher-Rao distance of various distributions.
New findings clarify the link between distributional closeness and representational similarity.
problem When and why do different neural network representations become similar?
method Identifiability theory, focusing on model families including autoregressive language models.
result Small Kullback-Leibler divergence does not guarantee similar representations.
We derive and approximate the conjugate prior of Dirichlet and beta distributions.
problem Intractability of conjugate prior for Dirichlet and beta distributions.
method Derive conjugate prior, define closed-form approximation, and provide algorithm.
result Closed-form approximation enables fully tractable Bayesian treatment.
The paper presents an approximate formula for European mortgage options pricing.
problem Pricing European mortgage options with accuracy and efficiency.
method Approximation of the underlying price distribution using lognormal distributions and matching moments.
result The proposed formula provides a good approximation with high accuracy compared to Monte Carlo simulations.
The paper derives risk measures for metalog distributions.
problem Deriving risk measures for metalog distributions.
method Closed-form expressions for Conditional Value at Risk and first-order partial moments.
result First-order partial moments are convex with respect to metalog parameters.
Improved portfolio optimization using VaR and CVaR with NMVM models.
problem Optimizing portfolios with VaR and CVaR under NMVM distributions.
method Transformed mean-CVaR-skewness problems into quadratic optimization with closed-form solutions for NMVM models.
result Approximate closed-form expressions for VaR and CVaR of NMVM portfolios.
The paper defines a new metric space invariant and computes it for various manifolds.
problem Computing the distributional LS-category of manifolds.
method Defining and analyzing the distributional LS-category of metric spaces and applying it to manifolds.
result Several sufficient conditions for the distributional LS-category of a closed manifold to be maximum are derived.
We consider the closeness testing problem for discrete distributions. The goal is to distinguish whether two samples are drawn from the same unspecified distribution, or whether their respective distributions are separated in L1-norm. In this paper, we focus on adapting the rate to the shape of the underlying distri…
Inverts operator on hyperbolic surfaces, constructing invariant distributions.
problem Constructing explicit inversion formula for X-ray normal operator.
method First, inversion formula for attenuated normal operator on Poincaré disk and closed hyperbolic surfaces. Then, explicit construction of invariant distributions.
result Explicit construction of invariant distributions with prescribed pushforward.
Transformer improves parameter estimation without needing closed-form solutions.
problem Parameter estimation in statistics, especially for complex distributions.
method Transformer-based approach for parameter estimation without closed-form solutions or derivations.
result Transformer-based approach achieves similar or better accuracy than maximum likelihood estimation.
This work improves distribution recovery from sparse data using Random Forest implicit regularization.
problem Distribution recovery from limited statistics.
method Closed-form estimator for scaled beta distributions, using composite quantile and moment matching.
result Improved classification accuracy through closed-form distribution recovery and implicit regularization.
Bayesian neural networks learn weights with closed-form updates.
problem Efficiently learning Bayesian neural networks with closed-form updates.
method Closed-form Bayesian inference for online learning of Gaussian-weighted BNNs.
result Closed-form expressions for sequential/online training of BNNs.
Two derivations of PCA for distributional data.
problem PCA for datasets of distributions.
method Two derivations: variance maximization and reconstruction error minimization.
result Closed-form solution for distributional PCA.
Data thinning splits observations into independent parts for convolution-closed distributions.
problem Validation of unsupervised learning results in settings with limited data.
method Data thinning, splitting observations into independent parts following the same distribution.
result Data thinning provides an attractive alternative to cross-validation in settings with limited sample splitting.
Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However with modern comput…
Paper introduces a geometric approach to model similar probability distributions.
problem Incorporating similar probability distributions into graphical models.
method Information geometric approach to model similar distributions.
result Allows reinterpretation of existing models.
For large-scale industrial processes under closed-loop control, process dynamics directly resulting from control action are typical characteristics and may show different behaviors between real faults and normal changes of operating conditions. However, conventional distributed monitoring approaches do not consider the…
New probabilistic invariants bound classical topological complexity and category.
problem Bounding classical topological complexity and category.
method Developed probabilistic variants of one-category and diagonal topological complexity.
result Identified new invariants with distributional category and complexity on Eilenberg-Mac Lane spaces.
Proposes IPT for modeling complex joint distributions.
problem Lack of closed-form solutions for complex continuous or mixed distributions.
method Observer-centered framework with three independence axioms; derivation of closed-form solutions.
result Closed-form solutions for complex joint distributions under IPT.
Study improves sample complexity for distinguishing continuous distributions and causal relationships.
problem Distinguishing continuous distributions and causal relationships in the presence of unobserved confounding.
method Proposed an estimator of KL divergence based on von Mises expansion for closeness testing.
result Established sample complexity guarantees for causal discovery in non-linear models with continuous variables and unobserved confounding.
We propose a model for price formation in financial markets based on clearing of a standard call auction with random orders, and verify its validity for prediction of the daily closing price distribution statistically. The model considers random buy and sell orders, placed following demand- and supply-side valuation di…
The paper develops a new method to test if two multidimensional distributions are equivalent or significantly different.
problem Testing equivalence of multidimensional distributions with sub-linear sample complexity.
method Uses generalized A_k distance and Ramsey theory to develop a computationally efficient closeness tester.
result First sub-linear sample complexity closeness tester for multidimensional distributions.
Study on lengths of random multicurves on hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Distribution of lengths of random multicurves on closed hyperbolic surfaces.
method Using Margulis' thesis and Mirzakhani's equidistribution theorem for horospheres.
result Distribution of lengths admits a polynomial density, with coefficients expressible in terms of intersection numbers of psi-classes.
Study of Gaussian distributions using entropic Gromov-Wasserstein and inner product Gromov-Wasserstein.
problem Optimal transportation between Gaussian distributions with different dimensions.
method Entropic Gromov-Wasserstein and inner product Gromov-Wasserstein, with closed-form expressions and von Neumann's trace inequality.
result Closed-form expressions for the entropic IGW and its unbalanced variant between Gaussian distributions.
The paper tests properties of multiple distributions with limited samples.
problem Testing properties of multiple distributions with few samples.
method Designing testers for uniformity, identity, and closeness testing under specific conditions.
result Sample optimal testers for uniformity, identity, and closeness testing are provided.
The study reveals a persistent bias in the distribution of holonomy on compact hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
problem The distribution of holonomy on compact hyperbolic 3-manifolds is not uniformly distributed.
method An asymptotic count of closed geodesics by their length and holonomy, and analysis of spectral parameters.
result A normalized, smoothed bias count of holonomy is distributed according to a probability distribution, controlled by the number of zero spectral parameters.
This note finds closed-form solutions for mean-risk portfolios using a specific type of mixture distribution.
problem Finding optimal portfolios under mean-risk criteria for general distributions.
method Using normal mean-variance mixture (NMVM) distributions, the paper derives closed-form expressions for mean-risk frontiers by optimizing a Markowitz model with adjusted return vectors.
result Closed-form solutions for mean-risk portfolios are found for return vectors following NMVM distributions.
Deep networks can approximate high-dimensional distributions from low-dimensional ones.
problem Approximating high-dimensional distributions from low-dimensional ones.
method Proved neural networks can transform low-dimensional distributions to high-dimensional ones with arbitrary closeness measured by Wasserstein distances and maximum mean discrepancy.
result Upper bounds of the approximation error are obtained in terms of the width and depth of neural network.
This work closes the theory-practice gap for distributed optimization methods by introducing a new regularity condition.
problem Existing convergence conditions for distributed optimization methods are violated by nearly all kernels used in practice.
method Introduces Hessian relative uniform continuity (HRUC) to guarantee convergence under mild conditions.
result Derives convergence guarantees for mirror descent-based gradient tracking without restrictive assumptions.
How many samples are sufficient to guarantee that the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix are close to those of the actual covariance matrix? For a wide family of distributions, including distributions with finite second moment and distributions supported in a centered Euclidean ball, we prove …
We investigate the problems of identity and closeness testing over a discrete population from random samples. Our goal is to develop efficient testers while guaranteeing Differential Privacy to the individuals of the population. We describe an approach that yields sample-efficient differentially private testers for the…
A new method for speaker recognition on hyperspheres improves on PLDA's limitations.
problem Improving speaker recognition on hyperspheres with PLDA's limitations.
method Probabilistic Spherical Discriminant Analysis (PSDA) using Von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result PSDA scores are closed-form and can handle various trials, improving over PLDA.
We review some aspects, especially those we can tackle analytically, of a minimal model of closed economy analogous to the kinetic theory model of ideal gases where the agents exchange wealth amongst themselves such that the total wealth is conserved, and each individual agent saves a fraction (0 < lambda < 1) of wealt…
New method calculates winding of geodesics on surfaces.
problem Understanding the distribution of geodesics on surfaces.
method Introducing a new construction of winding numbers for geodesics on cusped hyperbolic orbifolds.
result Winding numbers can be expressed by Rademacher symbols for various arithmetic families of surfaces.
SDE automatically recovers interpretable discrete distributions.
problem Limited interpretable discrete probability laws.
method Unsupervised framework using symbolic density estimation.
result Accurately recovers interpretable discrete distributions.
Each free homotopy class of directed closed curves on a surface with boundary can be described by a cyclic reduced word in the generators of the fundamental group and their inverses. The word length is the number of letters of the cyclic word. If the surface has a hyperbolic metric with geodesic boundary, the geometric…
We solve the mean parametrization of von Mises-Fisher distribution.
problem No closed-form normalization function for mean parameters exists.
method Derived a second-order ODE for mean normalizer and provided approximations.
result Rapid evaluation of densities and natural parameters in terms of mean parameters.
Markov networks (MNs) are a powerful way to compactly represent a joint probability distribution, but most MN structure learning methods are very slow, due to the high cost of evaluating candidates structures. Dependency networks (DNs) represent a probability distribution as a set of conditional probability distributio…
This paper concerns the problem of integrability of non closed distributions on Banach manifolds. We introduce the notion of weak distribution and we look for conditions under which these distributions admit weak integral submanifolds. We give some applications to Banach Lie algebroid and Banach Lie-Poisson manifold. T…
We investigate the two components of the total daily return (close-to-close), the overnight return (close-to-open) and the daytime return (open-to-close), as well as the corresponding volatilities of the 2215 NYSE stocks from 1988 to 2007. The tail distribution of the volatility, the long-term memory in the sequence, a…
We propose a distributed approach to train deep neural networks (DNNs), which has guaranteed convergence theoretically and great scalability empirically: close to 6 times faster on instance of ImageNet data set when run with 6 machines. The proposed scheme is close to optimally scalable in terms of number of machines, …
Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution arises as the statistical equilibrium probability distribution of money among the agents of a closed economic system where random and undirected exchanges are allowed. When considering a model with uniform savings in the exchanges, the final distribution is close to the gamma family. In thi…
New method denoises images without clean reference using Tweedie distributions.
problem Image denoising without clean reference images.
method Combining Tweedie distributions, Noise2Score, and saddle point approximation.
result General closed-form denoising formula for various noise distributions.
New estimates show spectral gap stability in RCD spaces, close to Beta distribution.
problem Stability of spectral gap bounds in metric-measure spaces.
method Combines L1-functional inequality and Stein's method. result Sharp quantitative estimate for spectral gap stability.
New generalization concept considers distribution of errors, not just average error.
problem Classical generalization fails to capture distributional differences in classifier outputs.
method Formal conjectures about distributional generalization based on model architecture, training procedure, and data distribution.
result Distributional generalization can be expected in specific conditions, as evidenced by empirical results.