This paper improves operational risk modeling by selecting better loss severity distributions.
problem Inconsistent regulatory capital calculations due to changing loss severity distribution families.
method Presented truncation probability estimates and a consistent quantile scoring function for selection criteria. Also, recommended collecting loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold.
result More stable regulatory capital calculations through better selection of loss severity distributions.
Paper introduces a geometric approach to model similar probability distributions.
problem Incorporating similar probability distributions into graphical models.
method Information geometric approach to model similar distributions.
result Allows reinterpretation of existing models.
Method enhances anomaly detection using contrastive learning and out-of-distribution data.
problem Improving anomaly detection in datasets with limited out-of-distribution data.
method Proposes a contrastive learning method that incorporates out-of-distribution data to enhance anomaly detection performance.
result The method significantly improves anomaly detection performance, even with limited out-of-distribution data.
This paper examines how optimization methods affect the reliability of detecting inputs outside a model's training distribution.
problem The unreliability of deep neural networks on out-of-distribution inputs.
method Analysis of optimization methods' impact on OOD detection approaches.
result Optimization methods significantly influence the robustness of OOD detection approaches.
Unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning.
problem Nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning problems.
method Generative learning framework with deep neural networks to estimate a conditional generator.
result The approach estimates a regression function and a conditional generator simultaneously, providing good prediction intervals.
New method robust to random distributional shifts in prediction.
problem Random distributional shifts in real-world settings.
method Hybrid approach combining long-term and proxy outcomes.
result Hybrid approach yields lower mean-squared error than current methods.
A new approach for test-time adaptation detects and reacts to distribution shifts.
problem Improving test-time accuracy under distribution shifts.
method Online self-training with a detection tool based on entropy values and betting martingales.
result The classifier's entropy values match those of the source domain, building invariance to distribution shifts.
NMDR estimates complex mixtures of distributions efficiently.
problem Estimating complex finite mixtures of distributions in high-dimensional settings.
method Flexible additive predictors, neural networks, and deep learning optimizers.
result Competitive performance in complex scenarios compared to existing approaches.
We study the problem of learning a mixture model of non-parametric product distributions. The problem of learning a mixture model is that of finding the component distributions along with the mixing weights using observed samples generated from the mixture. The problem is well-studied in the parametric setting, i.e., w…
A new method for modeling insurance claim frequencies using random proportions.
problem Inaccurate fitting of classical distributions to insurance claim frequency data.
method Modeling claim frequencies using random proportions of insurance contracts and applying goodness-of-fit tests.
result A new statistical approach for better modeling insurance claim frequencies.
Federated learning framework with uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in federated learning models.
method Infers and distills posterior predictive distributions from clients to server.
result Improved accuracy and reliability in predictions and tasks like OOD detection.
New approach to machine learning optimization using distribution space.
problem Optimization challenges in machine learning with non-convex constraints.
method Relaxation to convex optimization in distribution space, numerical algorithm based on mixture distributions.
result Approximate optimization in distribution space is consistent and effective.
Evaluation and validation of complicated control systems are crucial to guarantee usability and safety. Usually, failure happens in some very rarely encountered situations, but once triggered, the consequence is disastrous. Accelerated Evaluation is a methodology that efficiently tests those rarely-occurring yet critic…
Transformer improves parameter estimation without needing closed-form solutions.
problem Parameter estimation in statistics, especially for complex distributions.
method Transformer-based approach for parameter estimation without closed-form solutions or derivations.
result Transformer-based approach achieves similar or better accuracy than maximum likelihood estimation.
New RL algorithm minimizes distributional learning error.
problem Improving distributional reinforcement learning for better error minimization.
method Proposes a new model-based algorithm with theoretical minimax optimality.
result Proves minimax optimality for approximating return distributions.
The recently proposed distributional approach to reinforcement learning (DiRL) is centered on learning the distribution of the reward-to-go, often referred to as the value distribution. In this work, we show that the distributional Bellman equation, which drives DiRL methods, is equivalent to a generative adversarial n…
Unified approach to non-standard classification tasks.
problem Non-standard classification tasks like semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, multi-positive-unlabelled and noisy-label learning.
method Probabilistic, unified approach training a classifier to predict label-distributions, then inferring class-distributions.
result Unified model for various non-standard classification tasks.
New method ensures generated data statistics match real data distributions.
problem Ensuring generated data statistics match real data distributions in GANs.
method Added a new loss term to the generator loss function using f-divergences and kernel density estimation.
result Improved performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods become increasingly popular in applied mathematics as a tool for numerical integration with respect to complex and high-dimensional distributions. However, application of MCMC methods to heavy tailed distributions and distributions with analytically intractable densities turns out to be…
A new Fusion method combines multiple distributions efficiently.
problem Combining multiple distributions for big data or privacy.
method Recursive divide-and-conquer Monte Carlo approach.
result A robust Fusion method for many sub-posteriors.
Proposes an energy-based sliced Wasserstein distance for improved probability measure comparison.
problem Inefficiencies and limitations in existing sliced Wasserstein distance approaches.
method Introduces an energy-based slicing distribution for better performance and stability.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the EBSW distance in various applications.
Piecewise normalizing flows improve multi-modal distribution modeling.
problem Improving accuracy in modeling multi-modal distributions.
method Divide target distribution into clusters, train flows to match standard normal base.
result Piecewise flows outperform standard approaches in accuracy.
The paper proposes a new probability distribution for rooted trees.
problem Overfitting in tree selection for statistical models.
method Bayesian approach with a generalized probability distribution for rooted trees.
result Recursive methods to evaluate the probability distribution without approximations.
This article reviews and compares various methods for estimating conditional distributions.
problem Inference of conditional distributions in statistics.
method Classical nonparametric methods and modern generative models.
result A systematic numerical comparison of methods using performance metrics.
Robust forecast framework reduces distribution error by 63%.
problem Accurate distribution forecast for planning decisions.
method Backtest-based bootstrap and adaptive residual selection.
result Reduces Absolute Coverage Error by more than 63%.
Two approaches extend knowledge distillation to Gaussian Processes, showing relationships to existing methods.
problem Applying knowledge distillation to Gaussian Processes for regression and classification.
method Data-centric and distribution-centric approaches to extend distillation to GPR and GPC.
result Distribution-centric approach for GPC approximately corresponds to data duplication and scaling.
High-probability bound for distributed stochastic approximation tracking error.
problem Analyzing the convergence of distributed stochastic approximation schemes.
method Analysis using ODE approach to stochastic approximation.
result High probability bound for tracking error between iterates and limiting differential equation.
Domain adaptation addresses the common problem when the target distribution generating our test data drifts from the source (training) distribution. While absent assumptions, domain adaptation is impossible, strict conditions, e.g. covariate or label shift, enable principled algorithms. Recently-proposed domain-adversa…
In this letter, we derive the optimal discriminant functions for modulation classification based on the sampled distribution distance. The proposed method classifies various candidate constellations using a low complexity approach based on the distribution distance at specific testpoints along the cumulative distributi…
The distribution of the returns for a stock are not well described by a normal probability density function (pdf). Student's t-distributions, which have fat tails, are known to fit the distributions of the returns. We present pricing of European call or put options using a log Student's t-distribution, which we call a …
A new method for incorporating preferences in multi-objective Bayesian optimization.
problem Incorporating preferences in computationally expensive multi-objective optimization problems.
method Building independent surrogate models on each objective function and using Generalised value distribution to approximate the scalarizing function.
result The proposed multi-surrogate approach outperforms the mono-surrogate approach on benchmark and real-world problems.
Distributed learning adapts to diverse devices, improving performance.
problem Training neural networks on devices with varying capabilities and resources.
method Each device trains a customized neural network, sharing parameters with others.
result Achieves higher rewards on more powerful devices without sacrificing weaker ones.
A mixture of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions is introduced and used for clustering and classification. A variant of the EM algorithm is developed for parameter estimation by exploiting the relationship with the general inverse Gaussian distribution. This approach is mathematically elegant and relatively comput…
Novel neural network models quantify uncertainty for deep classifiers.
problem Deep networks' overconfidence and ignorance about uncertainty.
method Variational autoencoders and GANs generate out-of-distribution samples.
result Better uncertainty estimates for in- and out-of-distribution samples.
This paper provides new algorithms for distributed clustering for two popular center-based objectives, k-median and k-means. These algorithms have provable guarantees and improve communication complexity over existing approaches. Following a classic approach in clustering by \cite{har2004coresets}, we reduce the proble…
To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal data, expert opinions and relevant external data. In this paper we suggest a new …
Exponential distribution is ubiquitous in the framework of multi-agent systems. An alternative approach with an economic motivation to derive the exponential distribution in the framework of iterations in the space of distributions is disclosed.
Improved likelihood estimation for singular distributions using deep models.
problem Estimating singular distributions using deep generative models.
method Data perturbation to avoid singularity issues in likelihood estimation.
result Consistent estimation of target distribution with desirable rates.
Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional distances, focusing on two kinds of target parameters. The first is the counterfa…
A new method improves inference for complex Bayesian models.
problem Bayesian inference for doubly intractable distributions is computationally challenging.
method Monte Carlo Stein variational gradient descent (MC-SVGD) approach.
result The method achieves substantial computational gains over existing algorithms.
Bayesian inference models failure distributions in autonomous systems.
problem Estimating the distribution of failures in complex systems.
method Bayesian inference using system dynamics rollouts and gradient computation.
result Improves sample efficiency and parameter space coverage in autonomous systems.
Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of covariate shift--i.e., where the real-world data distribution may differ from th…
By design, discriminatively trained neural network classifiers produce reliable predictions only for in-distribution samples. For their real-world deployments, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is essential. Assuming OOD to be outside the closed boundary of in-distribution, typical neural classifiers do not c…
Generative AutoEncoders require a chosen probability distribution in latent space, usually multivariate Gaussian. The original Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) uses randomness in encoder - causing problematic distortion, and overlaps in latent space for distinct inputs. It turned out unnecessary: we can instead use determ…
A new method generates synthetic data with realistic marginal distributions.
problem Generating synthetic data with bimodal and skewed marginal distributions.
method Pre-transformation variational autoencoders (PTVAEs) with separate parameter optimization for each variable.
result PTVAEs outperform other methods in generating synthetic data with bimodal and skewed distributions.
Deep learning models are known to be overconfident in their predictions on out of distribution inputs. There have been several pieces of work to address this issue, including a number of approaches for building Bayesian neural networks, as well as closely related work on detection of out of distribution samples. Recent…
Distributed machine learning (ML) can bring more computational resources to bear than single-machine learning, thus enabling reductions in training time. Distributed learning partitions models and data over many machines, allowing model and dataset sizes beyond the available compute power and memory of a single machine…
We investigate the non-identifiability issues associated with bidirectional adversarial training for joint distribution matching. Within a framework of conditional entropy, we propose both adversarial and non-adversarial approaches to learn desirable matched joint distributions for unsupervised and supervised tasks. We…