A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The…
Study compares statistical properties and power of divergence measures for credit risk monitoring.
problem Detecting distributional shifts in credit risk models.
method Derives statistical properties and chi-square benchmark values for Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence, demonstrating their applicability in credit risk monitoring.
result Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence follow chi-square distributions and reveal practical trade-offs in minimizing false positives vs. detecting changes.
We describe the underlying probabilistic interpretation of alpha and beta divergences. We first show that beta divergences are inherently tied to Tweedie distributions, a particular type of exponential family, known as exponential dispersion models. Starting from the variance function of a Tweedie model, we outline how…
Construction of ambiguity set in robust optimization relies on the choice of divergences between probability distributions. In distribution learning, choosing appropriate probability distributions based on observed data is critical for approximating the true distribution. To improve the performance of machine learning …
Proves Sard conjecture for specific distributions, controlling divergence of vector fields.
problem Proving the Sard conjecture for certain types of distributions.
method Constructs a singular distribution capturing essential abnormal lifts, proving the conjecture for rank 3 distributions in dimension 4 and generic corank 1 distributions.
result Proves the Sard conjecture for generic co-rank one distributions.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a family of generative models that do not minimize a single training criterion. Unlike other generative models, the data distribution is learned via a game between a generator (the generative model) and a discriminator (a teacher providing training signal) that each minimize t…
The paper is devoted to differential geometry of singular distributions (i.e., of varying dimension) on a Riemannian manifold. Such distributions are defined as images of the tangent bundle under smooth endomorphisms. We prove the novel divergence theorem with the divergence type operator and deduce the Codazzi equatio…
The problem of f-divergence estimation is important in the fields of machine learning, information theory, and statistics. While several nonparametric divergence estimators exist, relatively few have known convergence properties. In particular, even for those estimators whose MSE convergence rates are known, the asympt…
We present a derivation of the Kullback Leibler (KL)-Divergence (also known as Relative Entropy) for the von Mises Fisher (VMF) Distribution in d-dimensions.
In this paper, we derive a useful lower bound for the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL-divergence) based on the Hammersley-Chapman-Robbins bound (HCRB). The HCRB states that the variance of an estimator is bounded from below by the Chi-square divergence and the expectation value of the estimator. By using the relation b…
We develop a method to combine Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), leveraging the advantages of both inference approaches. Specifically, we improve the variational distribution by running a few MCMC steps. To make inference tractable, we introduce the variational contrastive divergence (VCD)…
Parametric adversarial divergences, which are a generalization of the losses used to train generative adversarial networks (GANs), have often been described as being approximations of their nonparametric counterparts, such as the Jensen-Shannon divergence, which can be derived under the so-called optimal discriminator …
The t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) is a powerful and popular method for visualizing high-dimensional data. It minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the original and embedded data distributions. In this work, we propose extending this method to other f-divergences. We analytically a…