Wasserstein gradient boosting predicts probability distributions for supervised learning.
problem Distribution-valued supervised learning where outputs are probability distributions.
method Fits a new weak learner to Wasserstein gradients of loss functionals of probability distributions.
result Superior performance in probabilistic prediction compared to existing methods.
Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.
Stagewise boosting improves gradient boosting for distributional regression.
problem Vanishing gradient in gradient boosting for distributional regression leads to suboptimal models.
method Proposes a stagewise boosting-type algorithm for distributional regression, combining stagewise regression ideas with gradient boosting and incorporating a novel regularization method, correlation filtering.
result The proposed algorithm provides better results, especially for complex distributions, by reducing the risk of being trapped in a local optimum.
MP-Boost boosts accuracy faster and more interpretable than AdaBoost.
problem Developing a faster, more interpretable boosting method.
method Adaptive selection of minipatches (small subsets of instances and features) at each iteration.
result Achieves comparable accuracy to AdaBoost and gradient boosting but faster and more interpretable.
Deep generative models are effective methods of modeling data. However, it is not easy for a single generative model to faithfully capture the distributions of complex data such as images. In this paper, we propose an approach for boosting generative models, which cascades meta-models together to produce a stronger mod…
We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the cov…
DBT combines diffusion models and boosting for supervised learning.
problem Supervised learning problems.
method Diffusion Boosting paradigm and Diffusion Boosted Trees (DBT).
result DBT outperforms deep neural network-based diffusion models and is effective on real-world classification tasks.
TF Boosted Trees (TFBT) is a new open-sourced frame-work for the distributed training of gradient boosted trees. It is based on TensorFlow, and its distinguishing features include a novel architecture, automatic loss differentiation, layer-by-layer boosting that results in smaller ensembles and faster prediction, princ…
Develop gradient boosting for estimating covariate-dependent GP distributions in insurance.
problem Estimating covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto distributions in insurance.
method Developing a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting.
result Deriving non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator.
Boosting improves data fitting while maintaining fairness guarantees.
problem Ensuring fairness in data preprocessing.
method Boosting algorithm to learn sufficient statistics of exponential families.
result The learned distribution maintains fairness guarantees while fitting the data better.
Parallel gradient boosting speeds up multi-output regression.
problem Efficiently predicting entire conditional distributions.
method Modification of gradient boosting to use a common descent direction.
result Significantly faster and comparable performance to state-of-the-art boosting libraries.
Algorithm infers sampling distribution from i.i.d. samples without supervision.
problem Learning probability distributions from unlabeled data.
method Unsupervised tree boosting using additive tree ensembles and new distributional operations.
result Algorithm outperforms deep learning in multivariate density estimation.
Treeffuser predicts tabular data distributions using gradient-boosted trees.
problem Probabilistic prediction with flexible, non-parametric models.
method Gradient-boosted trees for score estimation in conditional diffusion model.
result Treeffuser outperforms existing methods in probabilistic prediction tasks.
Fair MP-Boost improves fairness and interpretability in boosting methods.
problem Improving fairness and interpretability in boosting methods.
method Fair MP-Boost uses adaptive sampling of minipatches to balance accuracy and fairness.
result Fair MP-Boost enhances fairness and accuracy while providing interpretable feature importance.
The study provides statistical guarantees for Bayesian variational boosting.
problem Statistical and convergence issues in variational boosting.
method Proposed a novel variational family and a functional Frank-Wolfe optimization algorithm.
result Demonstrated stochastic boundedness and provided convergence rate for boosting iterates.
A boosting method improves nonparametric density estimation without smoothing assumptions.
problem Overfitting in nonparametric data fitting.
method Introduces a boosting algorithm for univariate nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the boosting approach through simulations and real data experiments.
New findings on boosting sample complexity and implications for hardcore theorem.
problem Understanding the sample complexity of smooth boosting and its implications.
method Analyzing the sample complexity of smooth boosting and relating it to the hardcore theorem.
result The sample complexity of smooth boosting matches existing overhead and provides a separation from distribution-independent boosting.
Boosting algorithm reduces error in noisy data.
problem Improving weak learners in the presence of Massart noise.
method First computationally efficient boosting algorithm for Massart noise.
result Achieves misclassification error arbitrarily close to Massart noise threshold.
Boosted Control Functions improve prediction under distributional shifts.
problem Prediction under distributional shifts in the presence of hidden confounding.
method Boosted Control Function (BCF) and ControlTwicing algorithm.
result BCF allows for distribution generalization and invariance under nonlinear, non-identifiable structural functions.
FGBoost boosts gradient boosting for complex data.
problem Gradient boosting struggles with non-Euclidean data.
method Introduces FGBoost for geodesic metric spaces.
result FGBoost performs well on complex data.
Often machine learning methods are applied and results reported in cases where there is little to no information concerning accuracy of the output. Simply because a computer program returns a result does not insure its validity. If decisions are to be made based on such results it is important to have some notion of th…
Improved agnostic boosting with better sample efficiency.
problem Agnostic boosting's poor sample efficiency compared to Empirical Risk Minimization.
method Leverages sample reuse across rounds, guarantees better generalization.
result Substantially more sample-efficient agnostic boosting algorithm.
Integrates ML with operations knowledge to improve distributional forecasts in healthcare.
problem Challenges of ML in operational settings, especially lack of distributional information and integration of operations literature.
method Introduces Boosted Generalized Normal Distribution (bGND) using gradient boosting with tree learners. result Improves wait and service time forecasting by 6% and 9% compared to ML benchmarks.
This paper examines a novel gradient boosting framework for regression. We regularize gradient boosted trees by introducing subsampling and employ a modified shrinkage algorithm so that at every boosting stage the estimate is given by an average of trees. The resulting algorithm, titled Boulevard, is shown to converge …
Infinitesimal gradient boosting is a new algorithm derived from gradient boosting.
problem Improving the efficiency and smoothness of gradient boosting.
method Introduced a new class of randomized regression trees and used a limit process in vanishing-learning-rate asymptotic.
result Convergence of the stochastic algorithm and characterization of the limiting procedure as a unique solution of a nonlinear ODE.
Infinitesimal boosting converges to a deterministic process in large sample limit.
problem Characterizing the asymptotic behavior of infinitesimal gradient boosting in large sample sizes.
method Proving convergence to a deterministic process using large sample theory and differential equations.
result The test error decreases over time in the population limit.
We consider the problem of learning from distributed data in the agnostic setting, i.e., in the presence of arbitrary forms of noise. Our main contribution is a general distributed boosting-based procedure for learning an arbitrary concept space, that is simultaneously noise tolerant, communication efficient, and compu…
Boosting with unlabeled data achieves optimal sample complexity in agnostic settings.
problem Boosting's sample inefficiency in agnostic learning.
method Designing an agnostic boosting algorithm with unlabeled data to match ERM's sample complexity.
result The total sample complexity is optimal, with a vanishing fraction needing to be labeled.
Variational inference (VI) provides fast approximations of a Bayesian posterior in part because it formulates posterior approximation as an optimization problem: to find the closest distribution to the exact posterior over some family of distributions. For practical reasons, the family of distributions in VI is usually…
SnapBoost uses random base hypothesis classes to improve gradient boosting performance.
problem Improving gradient boosting performance.
method Heterogeneous Newton Boosting Machine (HNBM) with variable base hypothesis classes.
result SnapBoost achieves better generalization loss than competing frameworks.
Functional central limit theorem for kernel gradient flow and infinitesimal gradient boosting
problem Fluctuations of boosting processes around their deterministic limit
method Stochastic perturbation analysis of ODEs in Banach spaces
result Rescaled deviations converge to a Gaussian process
A new boosting model handles dependent censoring in time-to-event data.
problem Independent censoring assumption leads to biased predictions in time-to-event analysis.
method Clayton-boost, a boosting approach using Clayton copula.
result Clayton-boost outperforms other methods in handling dependent censoring.
Boosting Variational Inference improves posterior approximations with adaptive step-sizes.
problem Limited resources hinder the widespread adoption of Boosting Variational Inference.
method Characterized global curvature impact, introduced local curvature, and developed an approximate backtracking algorithm.
result New theoretical convergence rates and experimental validation demonstrate improved performance.
New findings show margins are not sufficient for explaining gradient boosting performance.
problem The inadequacy of margin explanations in explaining the performance of gradient boosting.
method Demonstrated and proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound for boosted classifiers.
result Proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound that explains the performance of modern gradient boosters.
Quantile gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
problem Forecasting high NO2 concentration episodes for effective air quality management.
method Compared 10 probabilistic forecasting models for NO2 concentration prediction.
result Quantile gradient boosted trees model outperformed others in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, termed variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation by solving a sequence of optimization problems, allowing the practitioner to trad…
agtboost speeds up gradient tree boosting with automatic complexity adjustment.
problem Speeding up and simplifying gradient tree boosting computations.
method Adaptive gradient tree boosting with automatic complexity adjustment and feature importance.
result Significant decrease in computation time and simplification of model complexity.
UnmaskingTrees improves tabular data imputation and generation using gradient-boosted decision trees.
problem Traditional methods outperform advanced deep learning techniques on tabular data imputation benchmarks.
method UnmaskingTrees employs gradient-boosted decision trees to incrementally unmask features for imputation and generation.
result UnmaskingTrees outperforms state-of-the-art methods on tabular imputation and generation benchmarks.
BBNN improves neural network accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Overfitting and lack of interpretability in probabilistic neural networks.
method Boosted Bayesian Neural Networks (BBNN) using Boosting Variational Inference (BVI).
result BBNN achieves ~5% higher accuracy and superior uncertainty quantification.
CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.
problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.
The paper analyzes boosting and minimum-ℓ1-norm classifiers in high dimensions.
problem Understanding the generalization error and optimal Bayes error in boosting.
method High-dimensional asymptotic theory, Gaussian comparison techniques, uniform deviation argument.
result Precise characterizations of boosting test error and optimal Bayes error.
The paper improves random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
problem Improving random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
method Extends boosting random forests to model exponential family responses using residuals and weights.
result Generalized boosted forests reduce bias and provide conservative confidence intervals.
Boosts barely robust learners to be more adversarially robust.
problem Learning predictors robust to small perturbations on a small fraction of data.
method Oracle-efficient algorithm for robustness with larger perturbation set.
result Qualitative and quantitative equivalence between strongly robust and barely robust learning.
We present a new algorithm for boosting generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) that allows to incorporate stability selection, an increasingly popular way to obtain stable sets of covariates while controlling the per-family error rate (PFER). The model is fitted repeatedly to subsampled data…
The paper relaxes the stability condition to boost confidence in generalization for randomized learning algorithms.
problem The tension between uniform stability and L2-stability in generalization bounds. method Establishes in-expectation first moment generalization error bounds for L2-stable randomized learning algorithms and uses subbagging to achieve near-tight exponential bounds. result Improves generalization bounds for convex and non-convex optimization problems with SGD.
New algorithms reduce communication costs in collaborative learning.
problem Reducing communication costs in collaborative learning.
method Distributed boosting and adaptation to classification noise.
result Communication-efficient algorithms for collaborative PAC learning robust to noise.
Approximating a probability density in a tractable manner is a central task in Bayesian statistics. Variational Inference (VI) is a popular technique that achieves tractability by choosing a relatively simple variational family. Borrowing ideas from the classic boosting framework, recent approaches attempt to \emph{boo…
NGBoost boosts multivariate probabilistic regression.
problem Joint probabilistic regression for multivariate targets.
method Natural Gradient Boosting for nonparametric modeling.
result Competitive performance in oceanographic velocity prediction.