A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New distress dictionary improves bankruptcy prediction from disclosure text.
Narrative disclosures in 10-K filings improve bankruptcy prediction beyond accounting ratios.
We introduce a dynamic optimization framework to analyze optimal portfolio allocations within an information driven contagious distress model. The investor allocates his wealth across several stocks whose growth rates and distress intensities are driven by a hidden Markov chain, and also influenced by the distress stat…
Paper uses machine learning to estimate IRI from pavement distress types, densities, and severities.
Study develops a new tool for assessing asphalt pavement conditions using deep learning.
This study proposes a new model for predicting financial distress in SMEs using machine learning.
We report a study of a stylized banking cascade model investigating systemic risk caused by counter party failure using liabilities and assets to define banks' balance sheet. In our stylized system, banks can be in two states: normally operating or distressed and the state of a bank changes from normally operating to d…
Corporate distress models typically only employ the numerical financial variables in the firms' annual reports. We develop a model that employs the unstructured textual data in the reports as well, namely the auditors' reports and managements' statements. Our model consists of a convolutional recurrent neural network w…
Automated pavement distresses detection using road images remains a challenging topic in the computer vision research community. Recent developments in deep learning has led to considerable research activity directed towards improving the efficacy of automated pavement distress identification and rating. Deep learning …
Federated learning predicts financial distress across U.S. states without centralizing data.
The paper forecasts corporate distress using a novel MIDAS logistic regression method.
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of the DebtRank algorithm, recently introduced in the literature. The mechanics of di…
We discuss a simple, exactly solvable model of stochastic stock dynamics that incorporates regime switching between healthy and distressed regimes. Using this model, which is analytically tractable, we discuss a way of extracting expected returns for stocks from realized CDS spreads, essentially, the CDS market sentime…
New risk measures assess cryptocurrency market vulnerabilities during financial distress.
In this paper we focus our attention on the exploitation of the information contained in financial news to enhance the performance of a classifier of bank distress. Such information should be analyzed and inserted into the predictive model in the most efficient way and this task deals with all the issues related to tex…
In the context of the current financial crisis, when more companies are facing bankruptcy or insolvency, the paper aims to find methods to identify distressed firms by using financial ratios. The study will focus on identifying a group of Romanian listed companies, for which financial data for the year 2008 were availa…
News is a pertinent source of information on financial risks and stress factors, which nevertheless is challenging to harness due to the sparse and unstructured nature of natural text. We propose an approach based on distributional semantics and deep learning with neural networks to model and link text to a scarce set …
The European sovereign debt crisis has impaired many European banks. The distress on the European banks may transmit worldwide, and result in a large-scale knock-on default of financial institutions. This study presents a computer simulation model to analyze the risk of insolvency of banks and defaults in a bank credit…
In this paper, we introduce a Deep Convolutional Analysis Dictionary Model (DeepCAM) by learning convolutional dictionaries instead of unstructured dictionaries as in the case of deep analysis dictionary model introduced in the companion paper. Convolutional dictionaries are more suitable for processing high-dimensiona…
Bayesian method improves dictionary learning for complex problems.
New measures detect asymmetries, non-linearity in stock returns.
We consider the problem of sparse coding, where each sample consists of a sparse linear combination of a set of dictionary atoms, and the task is to learn both the dictionary elements and the mixing coefficients. Alternating minimization is a popular heuristic for sparse coding, where the dictionary and the coefficient…
The paper models systemic risk in European and U.S. banks using factor copulas.
We present a two-stage approach for learning dictionaries for object classification tasks based on the principle of information maximization. The proposed method seeks a dictionary that is compact, discriminative, and generative. In the first stage, dictionary atoms are selected from an initial dictionary by maximizing…
This paper studies the convergence behaviour of dictionary learning via the Iterative Thresholding and K-residual Means (ITKrM) algorithm. On one hand it is proved that ITKrM is a contraction under much more relaxed conditions than previously necessary. On the other hand it is shown that there seem to exist stable fixe…
Many techniques in computer vision, machine learning, and statistics rely on the fact that a signal of interest admits a sparse representation over some dictionary. Dictionaries are either available analytically, or can be learned from a suitable training set. While analytic dictionaries permit to capture the global st…
A new portfolio optimization model minimizes maximum drawdown, offering faster and more robust solutions.
We consider the dictionary learning problem, where the aim is to model the given data as a linear combination of a few columns of a matrix known as a dictionary, where the sparse weights forming the linear combination are known as coefficients. Since the dictionary and coefficients, parameterizing the linear model are …
In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct for the biases associated with the strippable cash flow valuation assumption. We demonstrate that the resulting estimates are signif…
Study examines Fed's pandemic communication strategies.
Inspired by the recent success of deep neural networks and the recent efforts to develop multi-layer dictionary models, we propose a Deep Analysis dictionary Model (DeepAM) which is optimized to address a specific regression task known as single image super-resolution. Contrary to other multi-layer dictionary models, o…
This work addresses the problem of learning sparse representations of tensor data using structured dictionary learning. It proposes learning a mixture of separable dictionaries to better capture the structure of tensor data by generalizing the separable dictionary learning model. Two different approaches for learning m…
Sparse coding in learned dictionaries has been established as a successful approach for signal denoising, source separation and solving inverse problems in general. A dictionary learning method adapts an initial dictionary to a particular signal class by iteratively computing an approximate factorization of a training …
A dictionary connects symplectic to contact geometry, with applications to complex and G-structures.
A parallel algorithm learns efficient Kronecker product dictionaries.
In sparse signal representation, the choice of a dictionary often involves a tradeoff between two desirable properties -- the ability to adapt to specific signal data and a fast implementation of the dictionary. To sparsely represent signals residing on weighted graphs, an additional design challenge is to incorporate …
Sparse representations using learned dictionaries are being increasingly used with success in several data processing and machine learning applications. The availability of abundant training data necessitates the development of efficient, robust and provably good dictionary learning algorithms. Algorithmic stability an…
We study the Dictionary Learning (aka Sparse Coding) problem of obtaining a sparse representation of data points, by learning \emph{dictionary vectors} upon which the data points can be written as sparse linear combinations. We view this problem from a geometry perspective as the spanning set of a subspace arrangement,…
Two algorithms converge to dictionary learning with geometric rate for non-uniform data.
Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting corporate bankruptcy.
This paper derives sufficient conditions for local recovery of coordinate dictionaries comprising a Kronecker-structured dictionary that is used for representing th-order tensor data. Tensor observations are assumed to be generated from a Kronecker-structured dictionary multiplied by sparse coefficient tensors that …
The present paper shows a solution to the problem of automatic distress detection, more precisely the detection of holes in paved roads. To do so, the proposed solution uses a weightless neural network known as Wisard to decide whether an image of a road has any kind of cracks. In addition, the proposed architecture al…
Given a convolutional dictionary underlying a set of observed signals, can a carefully designed auto-encoder recover the dictionary in the presence of noise? We introduce an auto-encoder architecture, termed constrained recurrent sparse auto-encoder (CRsAE), that answers this question in the affirmative. Given an input…
The paper validates a centrality measure for financial networks during financial distress.
Dictionaries are collections of vectors used for representations of elements in Euclidean spaces. While recent research on optimal dictionaries is focussed on providing sparse (i.e., -optimal,) representations, here we consider the problem of finding optimal dictionaries such that representations of samples of …
In dictionary selection, several atoms are selected from finite candidates that successfully approximate given data points in the sparse representation. We propose a novel efficient greedy algorithm for dictionary selection. Not only does our algorithm work much faster than the known methods, but it can also handle mor…
Traditional dictionary learning methods are based on quadratic convex loss function and thus are sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose a generic framework for robust dictionary learning based on concave losses. We provide results on composition of concave functions, notably regarding super-gradient computati…