Study forecasts cholera outbreaks in Malawi using dynamic models.
problem Cholera transmission forecasting in developing countries.
method Qualitative dynamics, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, sensitivity analysis, machine learning.
result Enhanced cholera forecasting models improve future trends prediction.
IBPF algorithm tackles high-dimensional parameter learning for complex systems.
problem Learning high-dimensional parameters in complex, partially observed, and nonlinear systems.
method Iterated Block Particle Filter (IBPF) for graphical state space models.
result IBPF algorithm consistently beats the curse of dimensionality across various experiments.
Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting causal trade. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, market dynamics clearly differ…
Modeling infection hotspots to quantify effects of contact tracing and testing.
problem Capturing the role of infection hotspots in disease transmission.
method Temporal point process modeling framework to represent visits and disease transmission.
result Estimation of transmission rates at sites and households using Bayesian optimization.
This study predicts individual-level events using social dynamics and variational inference.
problem Predicting individual-level events in social systems.
method Stochastic kinetic model and variational inference algorithm.
result The proposed method is more efficient than sampling and achieves high accuracy.
Unified model forecasts epidemics with spatial and temporal dynamics.
problem Limited accuracy in traditional models and lack of interpretability in deep learning models.
method CSTGNN integrates Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks.
result Effective spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting with interpretability.
Study examines robustness of NPI effectiveness models against COVID-19.
problem How do NPI effectiveness estimates vary with model assumptions and data?
method Investigated 2 NPI effectiveness models and 6 variants, evaluated robustness to unseen countries, parameters, and data.
result NPI effectiveness estimates are remarkably robust to different variables.
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which med…
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
DeCom predicts post-COVID RSV timing and intensity with NPI consideration.
problem Predicting RSV timing and intensity post-COVID with NPI impact.
method Deep coupled tensor factorization machine (DeCom) leveraging tensor factorization and residual modeling.
result DeCom achieves up to 46% lower RMSE and 49% lower MAE compared to baselines.
A time-dependent SIR model predicts COVID-19 spread and herd immunity.
problem Modeling and predicting COVID-19 spread and herd immunity.
method Time-dependent SIR model with 2 types of infected persons (detectable and undetectable).
result The model accurately predicts the turning point and herd immunity threshold.
New method detects close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
problem Detecting close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
method Machine learning approach using BLE data.
result Reliable detection of close contacts reduces SARS-CoV-2 risk.
Paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian model for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots.
problem Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 hotspots to prevent outbreaks.
method Spatio-temporal Bayesian framework with a zero-mean Gaussian process and non-stationary kernel function enhanced by deep neural networks.
result Model demonstrates superior hotspot-detection performance compared to baseline methods.
Ensemble methods improve influenza predictions across seasons.
problem Accurate prediction of influenza season timing and severity.
method Weighted density ensembles combining multiple models.
result Ensemble methods offer more consistent performance across seasons.
Recovering hidden influence networks from cascade data using Jacobian-based machine learning.
problem Recovering influence networks behind dynamic cascades.
method CascadeNet, a Jacobian-based machine learning framework.
result CascadeNet achieves high accuracy in network recovery.
Bayesian inference models disease spread on networks.
problem Understand disease spread mechanisms and predict outbreaks.
method Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for complex models.
result Inference scheme works well on heterogeneous network topologies.
New method learns transmission matrices from input-output data.
problem Recovering transmission matrices from input-output data in random media.
method Statistical mechanical formulation and pseudolikelihood maximization.
result Inference protocols can learn transmission couplings.
EGDL predicts TB outbreaks with deep learning, integrating epidemiological models.
problem Predicting TB outbreaks with complex spatiotemporal dynamics.
method Modified MN-SIR model with Bayesian inference, deep neural networks.
result EGDL delivers robust and accurate TB outbreak predictions.
This paper uses deep reinforcement learning to automate electric transmission voltage control.
problem Automating voltage control in electric transmission systems.
method Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) applied to voltage control, with a novel DQN modification.
result DRL can automate voltage control at scale, but more research is needed.
New method shows cultural transmission improves language compositionality.
problem How cultural transmission affects language emergence and compositionality.
method Introduced cultural evolutionary dynamics into language emergence by periodically replacing agents in a population.
result Languages emerge with better compositional generalization due to implicit cultural transmission.
Paper develops fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores using high-resolution mobility data.
problem Developing reliable spatiotemporal risk scores for safe economic reopening.
method Hawkes process-based technique leveraging high-resolution cell-phone location signals.
result Fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores based on high-resolution mobility data provide useful insights for safe re-opening.
Researchers use statistical methods to infer transmission matrices in complex media.
problem Comprehending and exploiting photon scattering through disordered media.
method Pseudolikelihood decimation to learn the coupling matrix via random sampling.
result Transmission matrices can be inferred and used like normal optical elements.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
problem Analyzing belief evolution in social networks.
method Proposes a new theoretical framework using Markov chain theory for horizontal and vertical transmission.
result Homophily-based networks do not converge to a single set of beliefs.
Optimizes data transmission timing to minimize user information age.
problem Minimizing long-term average age of information in multi-user networks.
method Reinforcement learning applied to scheduling decisions without channel state information.
result RL approach effectively reduces AoI compared to traditional ARQ and HARQ.
This paper considers a transmission control problem in network-coded two-way relay channels (NC-TWRC), where the relay buffers random symbol arrivals from two users, and the channels are assumed to be fading. The problem is modeled by a discounted infinite horizon Markov decision process (MDP). The objective is to find…
This work interprets GELU and related activations via a first-order loss function.
problem Understanding and optimizing activation functions in neural networks.
method Complementary interpretation using the Gaussian first-order loss function.
result Calibrated or learned uniform-threshold gates are competitive and often outperform GELU, ReLU, and SiLU/Swish.
A deep learning approach for efficient power control in wireless video transmissions.
problem Optimizing power control for real-time wireless video transmissions with quality constraints.
method Proposes a learning-based approach using a deep neural network to solve the non-convex power control problem.
result The deep neural network can quickly provide optimal power levels for given channel conditions.
Anomaly detection identifies unusual malaria transmission patterns in Ghana.
problem Identifying atypical malaria transmission patterns in Ghana's spatiotemporal surveillance data.
method Consensus-based anomaly detection framework applied to monthly malaria surveillance data.
result High-burden areas are not necessarily those with the most frequent anomalous transmission.
In this note, we present some interesting observations on the Schiffer's conjecture, interior transmission eigenvalue problem and their connections to singular and nonsingular invisibility cloaking problems of acoustic waves.
Transmission imaging, as an important imaging technique widely used in astronomy, medical diagnosis, and biology science, has been shown in [49] quite different from reflection imaging used in our everyday life. Understanding the structures of images (the prior information) is important for designing, testing, and choo…
Traders and investors involved in an option contract having the underlying stock in range bound are likely to lose their initial investment. Timing in buying an option contract is of capital importance. In a recent article [1] the hypothesis of range bound market is used in conjunction to Black-Scholes equation to find…
DeepJSCC-f uses feedback to improve image transmission quality.
problem Improve image transmission quality in feedback channels.
method Autoencoder-based joint source-channel coding (DeepJSCC-f) exploiting feedback.
result Improves reconstruction quality for fixed-length or variable-length transmission.
Mathematical framework for cooperative communication explains belief transmission.
problem Lack of understanding why cooperation enables effective belief transmission.
method Connection to optimal transport theory, deriving prior models, statistical interpretations, proofs of robustness and instability.
result Cooperative communication provably enables effective, robust belief transmission.
In agreement with the recent research findings in the econophysics, we propose that the nonlinear dynamic chaos can be generated by the turbulent capital flows in both the quantitative easing transmission channels and the transaction networks channels, when there are the laminar turbulent capital flows transitions in t…
Deep JSCC maps images directly to channel symbols for wireless transmission.
problem Efficient image transmission in noisy wireless channels.
method Joint source and channel coding using CNNs trained jointly.
result Deep JSCC outperforms traditional JPEG/2000 + channel codes at low SNR.
Model for cross-border markets with limited transmission capacities.
problem Limited transmission capacities between two countries' markets.
method Developed a regime-switching process model with high-frequency approximation.
result Analytic tractability allows computation of key market quantities.
Novel method detects faults in helicopter transmissions using healthy data only.
problem Detecting faults in rare events in helicopter transmissions.
method Probabilistic anomaly detection using Bayesian measures.
result Method achieves competitive detection performance in real-world and benchmark applications.
Epidemiological model updates infection rates in China, US, Italy.
problem Evaluate policy interventions for mitigating the 2019-nCov pandemic.
method Custom SITR model with variational data assimilation for real-time updates.
result Model robust to initial conditions, infers infection numbers and parameters.
A new method for energy-efficient file delivery in small cell networks.
problem Efficient resource management in femto-caching with time-variant statistical properties.
method Formulates a resource allocation problem as a stochastic knapsack problem and a multi-armed bandit problem, developing solutions for each.
result The proposed method maximizes the accumulated utility over the horizon, especially suitable for networks with time-variant statistical properties.
Study shows diverse data types improve SARS-COV-2 case surge predictions.
problem Improving pandemic case surge predictions using multimodal data.
method Investigated the effectiveness of biological, public health, and behavioral features.
result Diverse feature sets enhance prediction accuracy, varying by country and phase.
A plethora of networks is being collected in a growing number of fields, including disease transmission, international relations, social interactions, and others. As data streams continue to grow, the complexity associated with these highly multidimensional connectivity data presents novel challenges. In this paper, we…
Study investigates FL performance over a noisy downlink, showing analog approach outperforms digital.
problem Impact of bandwidth-limited downlink on federated learning performance.
method Modelled downlink and uplink channels; proposed digital and analog downlink approaches; analyzed convergence behavior.
result Analog downlink approach provides significant improvement over digital approach, especially with biased data distribution.
This paper proposes a submodular load clustering method for transmission-level load areas.
problem Traditional load analysis challenges with new electricity usage patterns.
method Robust Principal Component Analysis (R-PCA) and submodular cluster center selection.
result The proposed method efficiently clusters load areas and demonstrates effectiveness in PJM load data.
Stochastic models analyze traffic network performance.
problem Evaluate traffic system performance.
method Stochastic cell transmission models, preference functionals, Gaussian process regression.
result Illustrated in two case studies.
Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most ca…
DPVis integrates HMMs into visualizations for disease progression analysis.
problem Challenges in interpreting HMMs for disease progression modeling.
method Design study with clinical experts, visualizations of HMM parameters and outcomes.
result DPVis successfully evaluates and summarizes disease progression models.
Predictive models identify patients at risk of severe COVID-19.
problem Identifying patients at risk of severe COVID-19 to ease healthcare strain.
method Machine learning on routinely collected clinical data.
result Models predict positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospitalizations, and critical care with high accuracy.
SS3M learns disease phenotypes from few labels.
problem Lack of supervised data for disease phenotyping.
method Semi-Supervised Mixed Membership Model (SS3M).
result SS3M learns interpretable disease phenotypes.