A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
FinRobot AI agent for equity research provides comprehensive insights.
New formulas estimate life insurance benefits with less computation.
We investigate the relationship between market efficiency of rice futures transaction in Osaka and the Japanese government intervention in rice distributions by directly buying and selling rice during the interwar period, from the middle 1910s to 1939, considering the context of "discretion versus rules." We use a time…
Study validates Libor model for insurance benefits calculation.
Framework uses human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
Language-based methods improve human similarity approximations without requiring many human judgments.
Large language models predict human sensory judgments across multiple modalities.
Study shows human advisors use context to improve student outcomes in algorithm-assisted advising.
Graphical models improve actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
To study how mental object representations are related to behavior, we estimated sparse, non-negative representations of objects using human behavioral judgments on images representative of 1,854 object categories. These representations predicted a latent similarity structure between objects, which captured most of the…
In this paper we propose a method for a quantitative estimation of the decision maker's knowledge in the context of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in cases, where the judgment matrix is inconsistent. We show that the matrix of deviation from the transitivity condition corresponds to the rate matrix for transactio…
Unified framework to bridge human and LLM judgments.
Paper improves PBO using Skew Gaussian Processes for better optimization.
We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, Itô diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting. This is done within a framework based on dynamic programming techniques employing var…
Topic models are typically evaluated with respect to the global topic distributions that they generate, using metrics such as coherence, but without regard to local (token-level) topic assignments. Token-level assignments are important for downstream tasks such as classification. Even recent models, which aim to improv…
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities . The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level of some continuous index process at which the payoff process is even allowed to have…
It is inconceivable how chaotic the world would look to humans, faced with innumerable decisions a day to be made under uncertainty, had they been lacking the capacity to distinguish the relevant from the irrelevant---a capacity which computationally amounts to handling probabilistic independence relations. The highly …
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
Within the context of traditional life insurance, a model-independent relationship about how the market value of assets is attributed to the best estimate, the value of in-force business and tax is established. This relationship holds true for any portfolio under run-off assumptions and can be used for the validation o…
Paper proposes government indemnification for AI risks to solve judgment-proof problem.
The goal of ordinal embedding is to represent items as points in a low-dimensional Euclidean space given a set of constraints in the form of distance comparisons like "item is closer to item than item ". Ordinal constraints like this often come from human judgments. To account for errors and variation in jud…
We analyze expenditure patterns of discretionary funds by Brazilian congress members. This analysis is based on a large dataset containing over million expenses made publicly available by the Brazilian government. This dataset has, up to now, remained widely untouched by machine learning methods. Our main contribut…
Accurate prediction of suicide risk in mental health patients remains an open problem. Existing methods including clinician judgments have acceptable sensitivity, but yield many false positives. Exploiting administrative data has a great potential, but the data has high dimensionality and redundancies in the recording …
Transformer models improve financial sentiment measurement.
Over the last few decades, psychologists have developed sophisticated formal models of human categorization using simple artificial stimuli. In this paper, we use modern machine learning methods to extend this work into the realm of naturalistic stimuli, enabling human categorization to be studied over the complex visu…
In this paper, we address the problem of measuring and analysing sensation, the subjective magnitude of one's experience. We do this in the context of the method of triads: the sensation of the stimulus is evaluated via relative judgments of the form: "Is stimulus S_i more similar to stimulus S_j or to stimulus S_k?". …
We revisit the notion of individual fairness proposed by Dwork et al. A central challenge in operationalizing their approach is the difficulty in eliciting a human specification of a similarity metric. In this paper, we propose an operationalization of individual fairness that does not rely on a human specification of …
In this study, machine learning models were constructed to predict whether judgments made by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) would lead to a violation of an Article in the Convention on Human Rights. The problem is framed as a binary classification task where a judgment can lead to a "violation" or "non-viola…
LLM evaluation suffers from systematic biases and lacks reliable positive judgments.
E-Commerce (E-Com) search is an emerging important new application of information retrieval. Learning to Rank (LETOR) is a general effective strategy for optimizing search engines, and is thus also a key technology for E-Com search. While the use of LETOR for web search has been well studied, its use for E-Com search h…
In this paper, we present a new task that investigates how people interact with and make judgments about towers of blocks. In Experiment~1, participants in the lab solved a series of problems in which they had to re-configure three blocks from an initial to a final configuration. We recorded whether they used one hand …
Robinhood users react strongly to overnight price changes and big losers, trading quickly after extreme losses.
The paper examines how macroeconomic control tools lost effectiveness, leading to a 'dark ages' period.
Develops Austen plots for assessing bias from unobserved confounding in observational studies.
Proposes RDASS for better Korean text summarization evaluation.
A test measures artificial agents' human-like behavior in video games.
Generative models have made immense progress in recent years, particularly in their ability to generate high quality images. However, that quality has been difficult to evaluate rigorously, with evaluation dominated by heuristic approaches that do not correlate well with human judgment, such as the Inception Score and …
The study identifies extremal dependence in financial markets using a bootstrap-based testing procedure.
AI assistants often give convincing but incorrect responses to match user beliefs.
As part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective is to create monthly or quarterly TPMs with predefined sectors and ratings that …
Equivalences are known between problems of singular stochastic control (SSC) with convex performance criteria and related questions of optimal stopping, see for example Karatzas and Shreve [SIAM J. Control Optim. 22 (1984)]. The aim of this paper is to investigate how far connections of this type generalise to a non co…
New benchmark for causal reasoning from human video descriptions.
Ranking a set of objects involves establishing an order allowing for comparisons between any pair of objects in the set. Oftentimes, due to the unavailability of a ground truth of ranked orders, researchers resort to obtaining judgments from multiple annotators followed by inferring the ground truth based on the collec…
Reply to Tetlock et al. on tail risk and probability gap.
The Frame Problem (FP) is a puzzle in philosophy of mind and epistemology, articulated by the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy as follows: "How do we account for our apparent ability to make decisions on the basis only of what is relevant to an ongoing situation without having explicitly to consider all that is not …
The artistic style of a painting is a subtle aesthetic judgment used by art historians for grouping and classifying artwork. The recently introduced `neural-style' algorithm substantially succeeds in merging the perceived artistic style of one image or set of images with the perceived content of another. In light of th…
Novel approach trains LLMs for inductive reasoning using probabilistic programs.
As algorithms are increasingly used to make important decisions that affect human lives, ranging from social benefit assignment to predicting risk of criminal recidivism, concerns have been raised about the fairness of algorithmic decision making. Most prior works on algorithmic fairness normatively prescribe how fair …