A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider an investor facing a classical portfolio problem of optimal investment in a log-Brownian stock and a fixed-interest bond, but constrained to choose portfolio and consumption strategies that reduce a dynamic shortfall risk measure. For continuous- and discrete-time financial markets we investigate the loss i…
Data discretization is an important step in the process of machine learning, since it is easier for classifiers to deal with discrete attributes rather than continuous attributes. Over the years, several methods of performing discretization such as Boolean Reasoning, Equal Frequency Binning, Entropy have been proposed,…
The probability minimizing problem of large losses of portfolio in discrete and continuous time models is studied. This gives a generalization of quantile hedging presented in [3].
The reparameterization trick enables optimizing large scale stochastic computation graphs via gradient descent. The essence of the trick is to refactor each stochastic node into a differentiable function of its parameters and a random variable with fixed distribution. After refactoring, the gradients of the loss propag…
The goal of regression and classification methods in supervised learning is to minimize the empirical risk, that is, the expectation of some loss function quantifying the prediction error under the empirical distribution. When facing scarce training data, overfitting is typically mitigated by adding regularization term…
We develop a framework for consistent polyhedral surrogates in classification and prediction.
problem Designing consistent polyhedral surrogates for classification and prediction problems.
method Formalizing and studying embeddings of predictions as points in R^d, assigning original loss values, and convexifying to create surrogates.
result Established a strong connection between embeddings and polyhedral surrogates, providing constructions and proofs of consistency or inconsistency.
We consider an arbitrage-free, discrete time and frictionless market. We prove that an investor maximising the expected utility of her terminal wealth can always find an optimal investment strategy provided that her dissatisfaction of infinite losses is infinite and her utility function is non-decreasing, continuous an…
We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss distribution of a portfolio of con…
LoRA-Curve connects independent LoRA optima through continuous low-loss valleys, improving Bayesian model averaging.
problem Challenges in estimating epistemic uncertainty in LoRA-based Bayesian inference.
method Introduces LoRA-Curve, a segmented Bézier curve parameterization in the LoRA space, with free and anchored configurations.
result Empirically shows that connecting independent LoRA optima through continuous low-loss valleys improves mutual information of the predictive distribution.
First order discretizations of Langevin diffusion can achieve better generalization error with additional smoothness assumptions.
problem Analyzing generalization error for first order discretizations of Langevin diffusion.
method Providing a sufficient smoothness condition to show that first order methods can achieve arbitrarily runtime complexity for a given expected generalization error.
result First order methods can achieve arbitrarily runtime complexity with additional smoothness assumptions.
Estimating causal models from observational data is a crucial task in data analysis. For continuous-valued data, Shimizu et al. have proposed a linear acyclic non-Gaussian model to understand the data generating process, and have shown that their model is identifiable when the number of data is sufficiently large. Howe…
Graphical models for structured domains are powerful tools, but the computational complexities of combinatorial prediction spaces can force restrictions on models, or require approximate inference in order to be tractable. Instead of working in a combinatorial space, we use hinge-loss Markov random fields (HL-MRFs), an…