Bayesian nonparametric discontinuity design improves causal inference without randomization.
problem Causal inference in non-randomized settings with additional assumptions.
method Bayesian model comparison and Gaussian process regression.
result BNDD can detect discontinuities of any order and spectral features.
Selecting input variables or design points for statistical models has been of great interest in adaptive design and active learning. Motivated by two scientific examples, this paper presents a strategy of selecting the design points for a regression model when the underlying regression function is discontinuous. The fi…
Algorithm uncovers treatment effect heterogeneity in educational RD designs.
problem Discovering sources of treatment effect heterogeneity in regression discontinuity designs.
method Causal supervised machine learning algorithm to build a 'regression discontinuity tree'.
result Algorithm uncovers various sources of heterogeneity in the impact of attending a better secondary school.
Donors who defer their donations volunteer less in the future.
problem Volunteer labor can be less beneficial to charities than its costs.
method Regression discontinuity design with a procedure to handle manipulation.
result Donor manipulation invalidates standard regression discontinuity design, but a new method provides partial identification bounds.
Bayesian model estimates treatment effects near cutoffs in regression discontinuity designs.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs.
method Develops a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with linear leaf-level regressions.
result Adapts to different slopes on the running variable near the cutoff, providing interpretable inference.
Proposes a robust estimator for RD designs.
problem Estimating treatment effects in RD designs.
method Doubly robust estimator combining two estimators.
result Enhances robustness of treatment effect estimators.
Bayesian emulator tackles models with discontinuities efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification of models with multiple discontinuities.
method TENSE framework, designed correlation structures, single emulator object.
result Efficient emulation of complex models with multiple discontinuities.
Bayesian approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in RDD designs.
problem Heterogeneity in treatment effects in RDD designs can lead to misleading conclusions.
method Direct Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.
result Flexibly captures complicated structures of heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of covariates.
Estimates funding impact from an algorithmic relief rule, finding little effect on hospital activities.
problem Evaluating the impact of algorithmic policy decisions.
method Developed a treatment-effect estimator using algorithmic decisions as instruments.
result Funding from an algorithmic relief rule had little effect on COVID-19-related hospital activities.
New method for causal inference in survival outcomes using RDD.
problem Censoring in time-to-event analyses.
method Nonparametric approach with doubly robust censoring corrections.
result Higher efficiency and robustness to misspecification.
New boundary treatment improves accuracy for complex PDEs.
problem Order reduction in high-order IMEX schemes for multidimensional PDEs.
method Novel boundary treatment algorithms for Cartesian meshes, treating implicit-explicit stages similarly to interior points.
result Recovery of designed order of convergence by numerical verification.
New neural network designs learn contact dynamics efficiently.
problem Learning contact dynamics in robotics from noisy data.
method Physically structured neural networks.
result Data-efficient learning of discontinuous contact events.
We develop a novel multi-fidelity framework that goes far beyond the classical AR(1) Co-kriging scheme of Kennedy and O'Hagan (2000). Our method can handle general discontinuous cross-correlations among systems with different levels of fidelity. A combination of multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes (AR(1) Co-kriging) and …
Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
problem Estimating causal effects in sharp and fuzzy RD/RK designs.
method Hierarchical Gaussian Process models for regression and classification.
result Hierarchical GP models improve precision and coverage of RD/RK estimations.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is arguably the dominant statistical inference algorithm used in most popular "first-order differentiable" Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs). However, the fact that HMC uses derivative information causes complications when the target distribution is non-differentiable with respect…
In this paper the problem of optimal derivative design, profit maximization and risk minimization under adverse selection when multiple agencies compete for the business of a continuum of heterogenous agents is studied. The presence of ties in the agents' best-response correspondences yields discontinuous payoff functi…
Proves nonemptyness of domains for specific group actions.
problem Nonemptyness of domains of proper discontinuity for Anosov groups of affine Lorentzian transformations.
method Proof of nonemptyness of domains of proper discontinuity.
result Proves nonemptyness of domains for Anosov groups of affine Lorentzian transformations.
We consider the deformation of a discontinuous group acting on the Euclidean space by affine transformations. A distinguished feature here is that even a `small' deformation of a discrete subgroup may destroy proper discontinuity of its action. In order to understand the local structure of the deformation space of disc…
Cut-DeepONet handles discontinuities and sharp transitions in neural operators.
problem Neural operators struggle with discontinuities and sharp transitions in PDEs.
method Two-stage training framework that explicitly models discontinuities via a lifting strategy and input-dependent discontinuity prediction.
result Cut-DeepONet outperforms state-of-the-art methods on benchmark PDEs with low-resolution datasets.
Study proves existence of equilibrium in incomplete economies with discontinuous volatility.
problem Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with nondegenerate endogenous volatility.
method Established existence of solution for Markovian quadratic BSDEs with discontinuous generators using unique continuation and backward uniqueness.
result Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with nondegenerate endogenous volatility.
New domains of discontinuity found for Anosov representations.
problem Understanding Anosov representations acting on homogeneous spaces.
method Constructing open domains of discontinuity for Anosov representations acting on specific homogeneous spaces.
result Describes the largest possible open domains of discontinuity for Zariski dense Anosov representations.
As early as 1972, Penrose - in a purely formal way - introduced a "discontinuous coordinate transformation", which relates a continuous representation of the metric of impulsive pp-waves to a discontinuous one. On the basis of the invertibility concept for generalized functions developed recently by the first author, w…
Study the discontinuity of functions not embeddable in Euclidean space.
problem Understanding discontinuity of non-embeddable functions.
method Define a modulus of discontinuity and establish lower bounds.
result Quantified nonembeddability results and topological Tverberg theorem.
Paper extends causal inference methods beyond unconfoundedness and overlap assumptions.
problem Treatment effect identification in studies violating unconfoundedness and overlap.
method Statistical learning theory approach to identify ATE and ATT.
result General conditions for identifying ATE and ATT, including scenarios like Regression Discontinuity designs.
Study new symmetries in non-symmetric spaces and discontinuous groups.
problem Analyze symmetries in non-symmetric homogeneous spaces and discontinuous groups.
method Investigate discrete series, discontinuous groups, and analysis on pseudo-Riemannian spaces.
result New insights into symmetries of non-symmetric homogeneous spaces and discontinuous groups.
Paper finds surface groups can deform in reductive symmetric spaces.
problem Finding deformations of discontinuous groups in reductive symmetric spaces.
method Analyzing Zariski dense surface subgroups and their deformations.
result Surface groups of high genus can deform in reductive symmetric spaces.
A new method for unsupervised disentanglement using axis-aligned cliffs.
problem Unsupervised disentanglement of latent factors under nonlinear maps.
method Encouraging axis-aligned discontinuities (cliffs) in the estimated density of factors.
result Cliff method outperforms baselines on disentanglement benchmarks.
We establish a connection between trend filtering and system identification which results in a family of new identification methods for linear, time-varying (LTV) dynamical models based on convex optimization. We demonstrate how the design of the cost function promotes a model with either a continuous change in dynamic…
New method estimates active subspaces for jump-discontinuous functions.
problem Estimating active subspaces for discontinuous functions like ABMs.
method Extending active subspaces to discontinuous functions, using Gaussian process.
result Identifies important parameters in ABM simulations of refugee movement.
This article gives an up-to-date account of the theory of discrete group actions on non-Riemannian homogeneous spaces. As an introduction of the motifs of this article, we begin by reviewing the current knowledge of possible global forms of pseudo-Riemannian manifolds with constant curvatures, and discuss what kind of …
The first known example of a complete Riemannian manifold whose isoperimetric profile is discontinuous is given.
Paper analyzes error in stochastic approximation for discontinuous functions.
problem Estimating expected error in discontinuous stochastic approximation.
method Uses finite differences and O(n−1/5) error estimate for discontinuous functions. result Achieves error estimate of O(n−1/5) for discontinuous stochastic representation. We characterise completely when limit sets, as parametrised by Cannon-Thurston maps, move discontinuously for a sequence of algebraically convergent quasi-Fuchsian groups.
We show that there is a complete connected 2-dimensional Riemannian manifold with discontinuous isoperimetric profile, answering a question of Nardulli and Pansu.
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in correspondence to monetary policy meetings of the ECB show. We provide a general analysis of …
Develops active learning for Jump Gaussian Process models.
problem Optimizing experimental designs and steering data acquisition in complex systems.
method Active learning of piecewise Jump Gaussian Process (Jump GP) models, accounting for model bias.
result Demonstrates the importance of accounting for model bias in Jump GP models.
Study proves rigid spectral properties of planets with metric discontinuities.
problem Establishing spectral rigidity for spherically symmetric planets with discontinuities.
method Novel trace formula applied to two wave types in spherically symmetric manifolds with boundary and interior interfaces.
result Spectral rigidity of spherically symmetric planets with discontinuities is proven.
In this paper, we present a method for the accurate estimation of the derivative (aka.~sensitivity) of expectations of functions involving an indicator function by combining a stochastic algorithmic differentiation and a regression. The method is an improvement of the approach presented in [Risk Magazine April 2018]. T…
We study the properly discontinuous and isometric actions on the unit sphere of infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces and we get some new examples of Hilbert manifold with costant positive sectional curvature. We prove some necessary conditions for a group to act isometrically and properly discontinuously and in the case…
This work models overnight rates with jumps and discontinuities, extending classical short-rate models.
problem Capturing the jump behavior and discontinuities in overnight rates for accurate modeling.
method Developed a term structure modeling framework based on overnight rates, accommodating stochastic discontinuities.
result Simple specifications can capture the jump behavior of overnight rates, and explicit valuation formulas are provided.
This paper evaluates deferring systems using causal inference.
problem Evaluating the impact of deferring systems on model accuracy is challenging.
method The paper uses a causal inference framework to evaluate deferring systems, distinguishing between scenarios with and without access to human predictions.
result The approach allows identifying causal effects of deferring strategies on predictive accuracy.
Membership in the Russell 1000 and 2000 Indices is based on a ranking of market capitalization in May. Each index is separately value weighted such that firms just inside the Russell 2000 are comparable in size to firms just outside (i.e. at the bottom of the Russell 1000) but have much higher index weights. These feat…
The study explores deformations of discrete subgroups in non-compact homogeneous spaces.
problem Addressing the proper discontinuity of discrete subgroups in non-compact homogeneous spaces.
method Classification results for deformations of standard discontinuous groups in pseudo-Riemannian homogeneous spaces.
result Conditions for local rigidity and Zariski-dense deformations in standard quotients.
Paper analyzes SGHMC for non-convex optimization with discontinuous gradients.
problem Training neural networks with ReLU activation.
method Non-asymptotic convergence analysis of SGHMC with discontinuous gradients.
result Explicit upper bounds for expected excess risk in non-convex optimization.
Paper introduces a new method to model epidemic dynamics with varying parameters.
problem Capturing discontinuous variations in epidemic model parameters.
method Total variation regularization with Iterated Nelder--Mead optimization.
result The method accurately models epidemic dynamics with instant changes.
This paper tackles discontinuous neural networks for better approximation of piecewise continuous functions.
problem Limitation of neural networks in approximating piecewise continuous functions due to discontinuities.
method Proposes a decoupled two-step procedure to train a discontinuous deep neural network model.
result Provides approximation guarantees for the proposed model in piecewise continuous function spaces.
A new algorithm learns model regimes and parameters efficiently.
problem Learning high-dimensional parameters with discontinuous jumps.
method Differentiable interacting multiple model particle filter with gradient descent.
result Superior numerical performance compared to previous methods.
In the present paper, we prove that no infinite group acts isometrically, effectively, and properly discontinuously on a certain class of Lorentzian manifolds that are not necessarily homogeneous.