A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improves bandit algorithms to stop exploring arms about to disappear.
We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago. National economies can be viewed as complex, evolving systems, driven by a stream of …
Benchmark detects decision-time leakage in financial backtests.
It is shown that 3D part of a spherically symmetric solution in conformal Weyl gravity interacting with Maxwell electrodynamics is a Yamabe flow as well. The Yamabe flow describes the transition from a horn of an initial wormhole to a 3D Euclidean space both filled with a radial electric field. It is supposed that such…
The Minority Game is a generic model of competing adaptive agents, which is often believed to be a model of financial markets. We discuss to which extend this is a reasonable statement, and present minimal modifications that make this model reproduce stylized facts. The resulting model shows that without speculators, p…
This paper studies optimal investment from the point of view of an investor with longevity-linked liabilities. The relevant optimization problems rarely are analytically tractable, but we are able to show numerically that liability driven investment can significantly outperform common strategies that do not take the li…
In a model free discrete time financial market, we prove the superhedging duality theorem, where trading is allowed with dynamic and semi-static strategies. We also show that the initial cost of the cheapest portfolio that dominates a contingent claim on every possible path , might be strictly greater than the …
We propose a neural machine translation architecture that models the surrounding text in addition to the source sentence. These models lead to better performance, both in terms of general translation quality and pronoun prediction, when trained on small corpora, although this improvement largely disappears when trained…
Here we explore a variety of properties of intrinsic flat convergence. We introduce the sliced filling volume and interval sliced filling volume and explore the relationship between these notions, the tetrahedral property and the disappearance of points under intrinsic flat convergence. We prove two new Gromov-Hausdorf…
In this article we prove a family of local (in time) weighted Strichartz estimates with derivative losses for the Klein-Gordon equation on asymptotically de Sitter spaces and provide a heuristic argument for the non-existence of a global dispersive estimate on these spaces. The weights in the estimates depend on the ma…
By incorporating market impact and asymmetric sensitivity into the evolutionary minority game, we study the coevolutionary dynamics of stock prices and investment strategies in financial markets. Both the stock price movement and the investors' global behavior are found to be closely related to the phase region they fa…
Mathematician summarizes protein geometry and mutation effects.
Paper examines floating exercise boundaries for American options in time-inhomogeneous models.
Both theoretical and applied economics have a great deal to say about many aspects of the firm, but the literature on the extinctions, or demises, of firms is very sparse. We use a publicly available data base covering some 6 million firms in the US and show that the underlying statistical distribution which characteri…
We found a unified formula for description of the household incomes of all society classes, for instance, for the European Union in years 2005-2010. The formula is more general than well known that of Yakovenko et al. because, it satisfactorily describes not only the household incomes of low- and medium-income society …
We study the stochastic control problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth under a non-bankruptcy constraint. The wealth process is subject to shocks produced by a general marked point process. The problem of the agent is to derive the optimal insurance strategy which allows "lowering" the level of the…
We prove that, in the non-extreme Kerr-Newman black hole geometry, the Dirac equation has no normalizable, time-periodic solutions. A key tool is Chandrasekhar's separation of the Dirac equation in this geometry. A similar non-existence theorem is established in a more general class of stationary, axisymmetric metrics …
Arora, Barak, Brunnermeier, and Ge showed that taking computational complexity into account, a dishonest seller could strategically place lemons in financial derivatives to make them substantially less valuable to buyers. We show that if the seller is required to construct derivatives of a certain form, then this pheno…
The paper proves smoothness of mean curvature flow for generic initial data in 3D and 4D.
In this paper we analyze an extension of the Jeanblanc and Valchev (2005) model by considering a short-term uncertainty model with two noises. It is a combination of the ideas of Duffie and Lando (2001) and Jeanblanc and Valchev (2005): share quotations of the firm are available at the financial market, and these can b…
Researchers have studied the first passage time of financial time series and observed that the smallest time interval needed for a stock index to move a given distance is typically shorter for negative than for positive price movements. The same is not observed for the index constituents, the individual stocks. We use …
We consider the Cauchy problem for the massive Dirac equation in the non-extreme Kerr-Newman geometry outside the event horizon. We derive an integral representation for the Dirac propagator involving the solutions of the ODEs which arise in Chandrasekhar's separation of variables. It is proved that for initial data in…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that are useful for representing high-dimensional probability distributions. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a BN from observed data. Typically, one assigns a score to various structures and the sear…
The number of Italian firms in function of the number of workers is well approximated by an inverse power law up to 15 workers but shows a clear downward deflection beyond this point, both when using old pre-1999 data and when using recent (2014) data. This phenomenon could be associated with employent protection legis…
Multi-agent models have been used in many contexts to study generic collective behavior. Similarly, complex networks have become very popular because of the diversity of growth rules giving rise to scale-free behavior. Here we study adaptive networks where the agents trade ``wealth'' when they are linked together while…
This paper deals with numerical solutions of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth under a non-bankruptcy constraint. The wealth process is subject to shocks produced by a general marked point process. The problem of the agent is to derive the optimal insurance strategy which allows "lowering" the level of t…
Method prevents model divergence in rapidly changing ad markets.
Online trading platforms manipulate profits and losses, causing 82% of retail traders to lose money.
Networks observed in real world like social networks, collaboration networks etc., exhibit temporal dynamics, i.e. nodes and edges appear and/or disappear over time. In this paper, we propose a generative, latent space based, statistical model for such networks (called dynamic networks). We consider the case where the …
Investors who optimize their portfolios under any of the coherent risk measures are naturally led to regularized portfolio optimization when they take into account the impact their trades make on the market. We show here that the impact function determines which regularizer is used. We also show that any regularizer ba…
In order to adapt to the liberalization of the financial sphere started in the Eighties, marked in particular by the end of the framing of credit, the disappearance of the various forms of protection of the State whose profited the banks, and the privatization of the near total of the establishments in Europe, the bank…
A new microeconomic model is presented that aims at a description of the long-term unit sales and price evolution of homogeneous non-durable goods in polypoly markets. It merges the product lifecycle approach with the price dispersion dynamics of homogeneous goods. The model predicts a minimum critical lifetime of non-…
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which grant them a positive gain. Indeed the average number of active speculators grows wi…
We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the a…
Wide networks are often believed to have a nice optimization landscape, but what rigorous results can we prove? To understand the benefit of width, it is important to identify the difference between wide and narrow networks. In this work, we prove that from narrow to wide networks, there is a phase transition from havi…
This paper considers utility indifference valuation of derivatives under model uncertainty and trading constraints, where the utility is formulated as an additive stochastic differential utility of both intertemporal consumption and terminal wealth, and the uncertain prospects are ranked according to a multiple-priors …
Neural Shadow-Mapping uncovers causal links in dynamic systems.
New example of non-smooth isotopy after stabilization in 4-manifolds.
A time-varying cointegration model for foreign exchange rates is presented. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model is associated with the speed at which deviations from the long-run relationship…
The zeta and eta-functions associated with massless and massive Dirac operators, in a D-dimensional (D odd or even) manifold without boundary, are rigorously constructed. Several mathematical subtleties involved in this process are stressed, as the intrisic ambiguity present in the definition of the associated fermion …
Study compares adaptive vs fixed query learning methods.
The paper proves UV finiteness and vanishing anomalies for hybrid topological-holomorphic field theories.
In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation, where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way the two forces influencing consumer choice -- (local) social interactions and (global) advertising -- interact. We st…
We study how information perturbations can destabilize two-sided matching markets. In our model, agents arrive on the market over two periods, while agents in the first period do not know the types of those arriving later. Agents already present in the market may match early or wait for the small group of new entrants.…
We consider in a market model the cooperative emergence of value due to a positive feedback between perception of needs and demand. Here we consider also a negative feedback from production of the traded products, and find that this cooperativity is robust, provided that the production rate is slow. Cooperativity is fo…
This work shows how penalising bias terms in norm regularisation leads to sparse solutions.
New neural network approach mitigates vanishing/exploding gradients.
We consider a Nash equilibrium between two high-frequency traders in a simple market impact model with transient price impact and additional quadratic transaction costs. Extending a result by Schöneborn (2008), we prove existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium and show that for small transaction costs the high-…