A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper simplifies complex jump-diffusion markets to complete models.
Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.
We study markets with no riskless (safe) asset. We derive the corresponding Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing equations for markets where there are only risky assets which have the following price dynamics: (i) continuous diffusions; (ii) jump-diffusions; (iii) diffusions with stochastic volatilities, and; (iv) geome…
Study -player and mean-field games in Itô-diffusion markets with competitive or homophilous interactions.
Decomposing market impact into diffusive components
Simulates financial market orders using anomalous diffusion models.
Paper establishes MLE consistency for market microstructure models.
A new method uses diffusion models to simulate financial markets accurately.
Proposes using diffusion models for probabilistic stock market predictions.
The financial market is nonpredictable, as according to the Bachelier, the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. Nevertheless, we observe in the price fluctuations the two distinct scales, short and long time. Behaviour of a market in long terms, such as year intervals, is different from that in short ter…
Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
Improved forecasting of financial risk using Diffusion-Copula framework.
Paper proposes DigMA to generate controllable financial market orders.
We briefly review data analysis of the Island order book, part of NASDAQ, which suggests a framework to which all limit order markets should comply. Using a simple exclusion particle model, we argue that short-time price over-diffusion in limit order markets is due to the non-equilibrium of order placement, cancellatio…
We analyze the Standard & Poor's 500 stock market index from the last 22 years. The probability density function of price returns exhibits two well-distinguished regimes with self-similar structure: the first one displays strong super-diffusion together with short-time correlations, and the second one corresponds to we…
Several models of stock trading [P. Bak et al, Physica A {\bf 246}, 430 (1997)] are analyzed in analogy with one-dimensional, two-species reaction-diffusion-branching processes. Using heuristic and scaling arguments, we show that the short-time market price variation is subdiffusive with a Hurst exponent . Biase…
We derive deterministic criteria for the existence and non-existence of equivalent (local) martingale measures for financial markets driven by multi-dimensional time-inhomogeneous diffusions. Our conditions can be used to construct financial markets in which the \emph{no unbounded profit with bounded risk} condition ho…
In this paper, we are presenting a method for estimation of market parameters modeled by jump diffusion process. The method proposed is based on Gibbs sampler, while the market parameters are the drift, the volatility, the jump intensity and its rate of occurrence. Demonstration on how to use these parameters to estima…
We suggest that the broad distribution of time scales in financial markets could be a crucial ingredient to reproduce realistic price dynamics in stylised Agent-Based Models. We propose a fractional reaction-diffusion model for the dynamics of latent liquidity in financial markets, where agents are very heterogeneous i…
This paper deals with the stability properties of a closed market, where capital and labour force are acting like a predator-prey system in population-dynamics. The spatial movement of the capital and labour force are taken into account by cross-diffusion effect. First, we are showing two possible ways for modeling thi…
Modeling high-frequency speculative markets as auction search processes.
The paper models financial markets using information theory to minimize information.
The paper studies the robust maximization of utility of terminal wealth in the diffusion financial market model. The underlying model consists with risky tradable asset, whose price is described by diffusion process with misspecified trend and volatility coefficients, and non-tradable asset with a known parameter. The …
DARL uses DDPMs to generate synthetic market crash scenarios for robust portfolio optimization.
The paper analyzes performance criteria for competing fund managers in Ito-diffusion markets.
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean reverting limit orders that lead to sub-diffu…
Generative diffusion models forecast implied vol surfaces without arbitrage issues.
This paper solves hedging in incomplete markets using neural networks.
The paper sets criteria for no arbitrage in complex financial models.
We consider strategies of investments into options and diffusion market model. It is shown that there exists a correct proportion between "put" and "call" in the portfolio such that the average gain is almost always positive for a generic Black and Scholes model. This gain is zero if and only if the market price of ris…
In this paper, we propose a modified Levy jump diffusion model with market sentiment memory for stock prices, where the market sentiment comes from data mining implementation using Tweets on Twitter. We take the market sentiment process, which has memory, as the signal of Levy jumps in the stock price. An online learni…
Mandatory emission trading schemes are being established around the world. Participants of such market schemes are always exposed to risks. This leads to the creation of an accompanying market for emission-linked derivatives. To evaluate the fair prices of such financial products, one needs appropriate models for the e…
Simplifies pricing options in jump-diffusion models using gauge transformations.
We consider a general class of diffusion-based models and show that, even in the absence of an Equivalent Local Martingale Measure, the financial market may still be viable, in the sense that strong forms of arbitrage are excluded and portfolio optimisation problems can be meaningfully solved. Relying partly on the rec…
A stock market is called diverse if no stock can dominate the market in terms of relative capitalization. On one hand, this natural property leads to arbitrage in diffusion models under mild assumptions. On the other hand, it is also easy to construct diffusion models which are both diverse and free of arbitrage. Can o…
Infinite dimensional measure-valued processes modeled as polynomial diffusions.
Stock price change in financial market occurs through transactions in analogy with diffusion in stochastic physical systems. The analysis of price changes in real markets shows that long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely depend on the number of transactions. We introduce the multiplicative stochastic mod…
Study no-arbitrage conditions in 1D diffusion markets with interest rates.
We consider option pricing in a regime-switching diffusion market. As the market is incomplete, there is no unique price for a derivative. We apply the good-deal pricing bounds idea to obtain ranges for the price of a derivative. As an illustration, we calculate the good-deal pricing bounds for a European call option a…
TRADES generates realistic market simulations for financial modeling.
We consider a diffusion approximation to an insurance risk model where an external driver models a stochastic environment. The insurer can buy reinsurance. Moreover, investment in a financial market is possible. The financial market is also driven by the environmental process. Our goal is to maximise terminal expected …
Optimizes control of hybrid systems with multiple switching processes.
Develops a new model for pricing without arbitrage opportunities.
A new model optimizes portfolios by learning stock return distributions conditioned on factors.
In this paper, we focus on option pricing models based on space-time fractional diffusion. We briefly revise recent results which show that the option price can be represented in the terms of rapidly converging double-series and apply these results to the data from real markets. We focus on estimation of model paramete…
Revisits Jarrow & Turnbull model for credit and liquidity risk.
We assume the market price to diffuse in a hierarchical comb of barriers, the heights of which represent the importance of new information entering the market. We find fat tails with the desired exponent for the price change distribution, and effective multifractality for intermediate times.
Study increasing profits in a flexible financial market model.