The paper develops methods to create private synthetic spatial point patterns.
problem Generating private synthetic spatial point patterns.
method Developed differentially private Poisson and Cox point synthesizers.
result The synthesizers effectively maintain privacy and utility of synthetic data.
Proposes first privacy-preserving method for estimating Hawkes processes.
problem Estimating point process models with sensitive personal data raises privacy concerns.
method Proposes differential privacy for event stream data and two optimization algorithms.
result Efficiently estimates Hawkes process models with privacy and utility guarantees.
Paper introduces a new gradient estimator for SNNs.
problem High variance in score function gradient estimator impedes SNNs training.
method Developed a differentiable point process to derive path-wise gradient estimator.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of path-wise gradient estimator through simulations.
Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they are affected by jumps. To this end, we introduce Neural Jump Stochastic Different…
New method learns spatiotemporal dynamics from random point process observations.
problem Challenges in modeling spatiotemporal dynamics from randomly collected data.
method Integration of neural differential equations, neural point processes, implicit neural representations, and amortized variational inference.
result Significant improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.
The goal of this paper is to clarify when a stochastic partial differential equation with an affine realization admits affine state processes. This includes a characterization of the set of initial points of the realization. Several examples, as the HJMM equation from mathematical finance, illustrate our results.
We propose a model of fractal point process driven by the nonlinear stochastic differential equation. The model is adjusted to the empirical data of trading activity in financial markets. This reproduces the probability distribution function and power spectral density of trading activity observed in the stock markets. …
Locally private methods detect changes in time series data.
problem Detecting distributional changes in time series data under local differential privacy.
method Proposed locally differentially private algorithms based on randomized response and binary mechanisms.
result Theoretical performance bounds and empirical validation of detection accuracy.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The paper presents a method to infer unknown forcing functions in differential equations using Gaussian processes and adjoints.
problem Inferring unknown forcing functions in differential equations from noisy observations.
method Using adjoint methods to efficiently infer Gaussian process (GP) driven differential equations, with truncated basis expansions of the GP kernel.
result Efficient Bayesian inference of forcing functions modeled as GPs using adjoints, with lower computation than MCMC methods.
Differentiable adversarial attacks improve model robustness in MTPP models.
problem Improving model robustness against adversarial attacks in MTPP models.
method Proposed a differentiable adversarial attack scheme PERMTPP that addresses the sequential nature and varying time-scales of MTPPs.
result Demonstrated offensive and defensive capabilities, and reduced inference times on real-world datasets.
Model change points in time-series data with neural SDEs and variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling change points in time-series data with neural stochastic differential equations.
method Proposes a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder framework, alternating between updating neural SDE parameters and change points.
result Demonstrates the expressive power of the proposed model in modeling both classical parametric SDEs and real datasets with distribution shifts.
We use probabilistic methods to study classical solutions for systems of interacting semilinear parabolic partial differential equations. In a modeling framework for a financial market with interacting Ito and point processes, such PDEs are shown to provide a natural description for the solution of hedging and valuatio…
Study particle dynamics in non-differentiable fractal spaces.
problem Understanding motion in non-smooth, probabilistic geometries.
method Use fiber bundle theory to characterize multivalued geodesic trajectories.
result Developed a hybrid theory combining surface and stochastic process theories.
New privacy framework tailored to specific data distributions.
problem Protecting individual data points in decision-making processes.
method Introducing tangent differential privacy, a new form of differential privacy.
result Entropic regularization guarantees tangent differential privacy under general conditions.
Gaussian processes with differential privacy protect both inputs and outputs.
problem Previous DP methods only protected model outputs, not inputs.
method Sparse GP with private variational approximation, adjusting covariance for DP noise.
result Accurate models can be produced under strong privacy protection with sufficient data.
In common finance literature, Black-Scholes partial differential equation of option pricing is usually derived with no-arbitrage principle. Considering an asset market, Merton applied the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman techniques of his continuous-time consumption-portfolio problem, deriving general equilibrium relationships …
New method for fast inference in diffusion models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in diffusion models.
method Variational Gaussian Process, exponential family description, convex optimization.
result Improved fast algorithm for learning model parameters.
Paper proves convergence of Markovian iteration for FBSDEs with fully coupled drift and Z process.
problem Proving convergence of Markovian iteration for FBSDEs with fully coupled drift and Z process.
method Differentiation-based approach to handle Z process, uniformly controlling Lipschitz continuity of decoupling fields.
result Proves convergence of Markovian iteration method for FBSDEs with fully coupled drift and Z process.
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate each other with correlated levels of contagion. We generalize a recent algorithm f…
We propose the point process model as the Poissonian-like stochastic sequence with slowly diffusing mean rate and adjust the parameters of the model to the empirical data of trading activity for 26 stocks traded on NYSE. The proposed scaled stochastic differential equation provides the universal description of the trad…
Graph Gaussian processes use Matérn models for better function learning.
problem Lack of Gaussian process models for graph input spaces.
method Stochastic partial differential equation characterization of Matérn Gaussian processes.
result Graph Matérn Gaussian processes inherit properties of Euclidean and Riemannian models and can be trained efficiently.
Quantum algorithm samples from SDEs using DQCs and quantile mechanics.
problem Sampling from solutions of stochastic differential equations.
method Differentiable quantum circuits (DQCs) encoding latent variables, quantile mechanics.
result Quantum algorithm generates time-series from SDEs.
STRODE learns timings and dynamics from unlabeled time series data.
problem Learning dynamics of random event timings from unlabeled sensory inputs.
method Probabilistic Ordinary Differential Equation (STRODE) that samples from posterior point processes.
result Successfully infers event timings from synthetic and real-world datasets.
A continuing challenge for machine learning is providing methods to perform computation on data while ensuring the data remains private. In this paper we build on the provable privacy guarantees of differential privacy which has been combined with Gaussian processes through the previously published \emph{cloaking metho…
A neural RNN model adapts time steps for non-stationary time series data.
problem Modeling and forecasting non-stationary time series with sharp changes.
method RNN-ODE-Adap model using neural ODE and adaptive time steps.
result Consistent estimation of intensity function for Hawkes-type data.
We investigate the optimal reinsurance problem under the criterion of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth when the insurance company has restricted information on the loss process. We propose a risk model with claim arrival intensity and claim sizes distribution affected by an unobservable environmental …
Paper introduces a differentiable STFT for continuous window length optimization.
problem Optimizing window length in spectrograms for neural networks.
method Defines a differentiable short-time Fourier transform with continuous window length.
result Demonstrates improved performance in estimation and classification tasks.
New method DDVI improves posterior inference for deep Gaussian processes.
problem Inference of inducing points in DGPs is challenging and biased.
method DDVI uses denoising diffusion SDE and score matching for posterior approximation.
result Empirically shows DDVI outperforms baseline methods in inducing point inference.
Framework detects tipping points in complex systems using ML.
problem Detecting tipping points in complex, emergent systems.
method Combining manifold learning, neural networks, and Gaussian processes.
result Reduced-order models for mesoscopic and mean-field dynamics.
This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial processes, i.e., by processes with fixed size binary increments at sampling points. …
Explains peculiarities of 4D scalar curvature via Yamabe invariant.
problem Interplay between scalar curvature and differential topology in 4-manifolds.
method Careful discussion of Yamabe invariant (sigma constant).
result Proves new results and identifies open problems.
We consider stochastic partial differential equations appearing as Markovian lifts of matrix valued (affine) Volterra type processes from the point of view of the generalized Feller property (see e.g., \cite{doetei:10}). We introduce in particular Volterra Wishart processes with fractional kernels and values in the con…
HIP-GP improves GP inference for inter-domain observations with millions of inducing points.
problem Inference for Gaussian Processes across different domains.
method Hierarchical inducing point Gaussian process with grid structure and stationary kernel assumption.
result Improved approximation accuracy through increased number of inducing points.
Stochastic flows of Stratonovich stochastic differential equations on exotic spheres have been studied. The consequences of the choice of exotic differential structure on stochastic processes taking place on the topological space Sm+n+1 as state space of the processes have been investigated. More precisely, we hav…
A new Gaussian process regression method infers implicit manifold structure from data.
problem Scaling Gaussian process regression to high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a fully differentiable Gaussian process regression technique that infers implicit manifold structure from data.
result Improves predictive performance and calibration of standard Gaussian process regression in high-dimensional settings.
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.
problem Modeling irregular time intervals in event sequences.
method State-space point process model using deep state-space techniques.
result Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods.
In this work, we explore the idea that effective generative models for point clouds under the autoencoding framework must acknowledge the relationship between a continuous surface, a discretized mesh, and a set of points sampled from the surface. This view motivates a generative model that works by progressively deform…
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
problem Numerical instability and inefficiency in approximate inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Conjugate-computation variational inference with Kalman recursions.
result Linear-time inference with fast and stable variational inference for state-space GP models.
Study transcendence of abelian differential periods from bi-algebraic perspective.
problem Arithmetic and functional transcendence of periods of abelian differentials.
method Bi-algebraic structure on strata of abelian differentials.
result Characterization of arithmetic points and proof of linear bi-algebraic curves.
We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtual…
A method for diffusion on probability simplex for generative models.
problem Tension between continuous and discrete data in diffusion models.
method Proposes using softmax function applied to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process on probability simplex.
result Method extends to bounded image generation.
We explore martingale and convex duality techniques to study optimal investment strategies that maximize expected risk-averse utility from consumption and terminal wealth. We consider a market model with jumps driven by (multivariate) marked point processes and so-called non-linear wealth dynamics which allows to take …
GraphGP: Scalable Gaussian Processes with Vecchia's Approximation
problem Naive Gaussian Process computation limits practical use
method GPU algorithm for Vecchia's approximation
result Linear time and memory requirements for nearly a billion parameters
Study stochastic processes on surfaces in contact sub-Riemannian manifolds using Riemannian approximations.
problem Analyzing stochastic processes on surfaces in contact sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Employing Riemannian approximations, a second order partial differential operator is derived on the surface. The stochastic process moves along the characteristic foliation induced by the contact distribution.
result Elliptic characteristic points are inaccessible, while hyperbolic characteristic points are accessible from separatrices.
Gaussian process regression helps approximate Bayesian inverse problems efficiently.
problem Computational intractability of Bayesian posterior distributions in inverse problems.
method Gaussian process regression to build a surrogate model for the likelihood.
result Error between true and approximate posterior can be bounded by weighted L2-norm error between true and approximate likelihood. The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.