We address the problem of estimating the difference between two probability densities. A naive approach is a two-step procedure of first estimating two densities separately and then computing their difference. However, such a two-step procedure does not necessarily work well because the first step is performed without …
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48 results for “difference estimator”
Meta-learner estimates heterogeneous DiD effects robustly.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data with DiD.
method Doubly robust meta-learner for CATT, using convex risk minimization and auxiliary models.
result Superior performance over existing methods in empirical tests.
The paper reduces estimation error in predicting borrower repayment by accounting for lender's credit decisions.
problem Estimation error in predicting borrower repayment due to confounding effects.
method Proposes new estimators to reduce estimation error, combining theoretical analysis and numerical testing.
result The proposed estimators are unbiased, consistent, and robust, showing substantial reduction in estimation error.
Proposes a robust estimator for high-dimensional data with heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with many more regressors than observations.
method Doubly robust two-stage semiparametric difference-in-difference estimator using machine learning for propensity score estimation.
result Valid inference for heterogeneous treatment effects with bias correction procedures.
Develops a TL framework for estimating RMST difference in clinical trials.
problem Estimating RMST difference in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
method Targeted learning (TL) framework using pseudo-observations and copy reference (CR) approach for sensitivity analysis.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the TL framework using real data.
We establish scale-invariant Strichartz estimates for the Schrödinger flow on any compact Lie group equipped with canonical rational metrics. In particular, full Strichartz estimates without loss for some non-rectangular tori are given. The highlights of this paper include estimates for some Weyl type sums defined on r…
A linear non-Gaussian structural equation model called LiNGAM is an identifiable model for exploratory causal analysis. Previous methods estimate a causal ordering of variables and their connection strengths based on a single dataset. However, in many application domains, data are obtained under different conditions, t…
Develops a method to estimate network difference in high-dimensional time series data.
problem Estimating network differences in high-dimensional data can be unreliable.
method Uses an L1 penalty on the difference of inverse spectral densities to estimate network differences.
result Establishes consistency of the method for sparse network differences.
Functional brain networks are well described and estimated from data with Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs), e.g. using sparse inverse covariance estimators. Comparing functional connectivity of subjects in two populations calls for comparing these estimated GGMs. Our goal is to identify differences in GGMs known to hav…
Estimates population mean from user-level data with privacy, accounting for heterogeneity.
problem Heterogeneous user data with varying numbers of data points and distributions.
method Simple model of heterogeneous user data, differential privacy mechanism for estimation.
result Asymptotic optimality of the proposed estimator and general lower bounds on error.
Estimates the effect of time-varying treatments using machine learning.
problem Estimating the impact of time-varying treatments over multiple periods.
method Difference-in-Differences framework with double/debiased machine learning.
result Higher vaccination rates reduce COVID-19 mortality after several weeks.
The paper analyzes the efficiency of gradient estimation methods in noisy function evaluations.
problem Estimating gradients of smooth functions using noisy function evaluations.
method Information-theoretic lower bounds and finite difference method analysis.
result The finite difference method is not minimax optimal, suggesting room for improvement in gradient estimation.
Bounds on the first Betti number - an approach via Schatten norm estimates on semigroup differencesmath.DG
We derive new estimates for the first Betti number of compact Riemannian manifolds. Our approach relies on the Birman-Schwinger principle and Schatten norm estimates for semigroup differences. In contrast to previous works we do not require any a priori ultracontractivity estimates and we provide bounds which explicitl…
New estimator uses clustering to improve off-policy evaluation accuracy.
problem Improving off-policy evaluation accuracy when logging and evaluation policies differ.
method Proposes an estimator that shares information across similar contexts using clustering.
result Clustering contexts improves estimation accuracy, especially in deficient information settings.
New gradient estimates for heat equation on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Improving gradient estimates for heat equations on manifolds.
method Provided a new version of Li-Yau gradient estimate for the linear heat equation.
result Generalizes and provides new gradient estimates for heat equations.
Paper proposes a new sparsity scheme for high-dimensional VAR models.
problem Estimation of high-dimensional VAR models with sparsity assumptions.
method Regularized estimation procedures for sparse VAR models.
result Threholding extends consistency properties of regularized estimators.
Estimates true Sharpe ratio of selected assets with various methods.
problem Estimating the true Sharpe ratio of a selected asset with high in-sample ratio.
method Polyhedral lemma, James Stein shrinkage, debiasing, thresholding, empirical Bayes.
result James Stein estimator performs best across various parameter values.
A new estimator reduces bias and improves efficiency for staggered adoption studies.
problem Bias in difference-in-differences estimates for staggered adoption studies.
method Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects (FETWFE) estimator with automatic parameter selection.
result FETWFE identifies correct restrictions with probability tending to one, improving efficiency.
Quantile TD learning outperforms classical TD learning for value estimation.
problem Temporal-difference learning in reinforcement learning.
method Quantile Temporal-Difference Learning (QTD) for policy evaluation.
result QTD offers superior performance to classical TD learning, even in tabular settings.
Paper characterizes DLN distribution, its properties, and estimation methods.
problem No specific problem stated, focuses on DLN distribution properties.
method Characterization of PDF, CDF, moments; generalization to N-dimensions; methods to handle double-exponential nature.
result Characterization of DLN distribution and its properties, including estimation methods.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the workhorse of modern machine learning. Sometimes, there are many different potential gradient estimators that can be used. When so, choosing the one with the best tradeoff between cost and variance is important. This paper analyzes the convergence rates of SGD as a function of ti…
The popular Lasso approach for sparse estimation can be derived via marginalization of a joint density associated with a particular stochastic model. A different marginalization of the same probabilistic model leads to a different non-convex estimator where hyperparameters are optimized. Extending these arguments to pr…
We discuss a weighted estimation of correlation and covariance matrices from historical financial data. To this end, we introduce a weighting scheme that accounts for similarity of previous market conditions to the present one. The resulting estimators are less biased and show lower variance than either unweighted or e…
DN estimator mitigates network interference in experiments.
problem Network interference biases naive experiment designs.
method Differences-in-Neighbors (DN) estimator designed to mitigate interference.
result DN achieves bias second order in interference effect, with exponentially smaller variance.
We consider the problem of estimating the difference between two functional undirected graphical models with shared structures. In many applications, data are naturally regarded as high-dimensional random function vectors rather than multivariate scalars. For example, electroencephalography (EEG) data are more appropri…
The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based distance between probability distributions useful in many applications (Gretton et al. 2012), bearing a simple estimator with pleasing computational and statistical properties. Being able to efficiently estimate the variance of this estimator is very helpful to vario…
TD learning reduces prediction error in Markov chain problems.
problem Estimating value functions in Markov chains with temporal inconsistency.
method Temporal difference learning minimizes temporal inconsistency between successive estimates.
result TD learning can significantly reduce mean-squared error in value estimates.
Proposes Deep LTMLE for estimating dynamic treatment effects in longitudinal studies.
problem Estimating counterfactual mean outcomes under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal settings.
method Uses a transformer architecture with temporal-difference learning for initial estimation, followed by TMLE correction and statistical inference.
result Demonstrates superior performance in complex, long-term scenarios compared to existing methods.
For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals to have different tail thickness. After a discussion of relevant estimation and …
Proposes a new DiD method for learning optimal treatment policies.
problem Violation of parallel trends assumption in DiD.
method Instrumented DiD approach with binary IV, Wald, IPW, and semiparametric estimators.
result Establishes consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators.
New method estimates and optimizes policy differences using orthogonal learning.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with safety concerns and cost limitations.
method Dynamic R-learner for estimating and optimizing , leveraging orthogonal estimation.
result Consistent policy optimization with improved convergence rates.
Proposes a method to enhance exploration in RL using temporal difference uncertainties.
problem Challenges in estimating uncertainty in non-tabular reinforcement learning settings.
method Estimates uncertainty over value function using temporal difference errors and incorporates it as an intrinsic reward.
result Demonstrates improved exploration in various tasks, including Deep Sea and Atari 2600 environments.
Double Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Average Treatment Effects: A Comparative Studystat.ME
New methods combine machine learning with doubly robust estimators for better treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating average treatment effects from observational data.
method Doubly robust methods using machine learning techniques.
result Machine learning improves the performance of doubly robust estimators.
Dynamic operational risk: modeling dependence and combining different sources of informationq-fin.RM
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different risk categories as well …
Fisher et al. extend multi-VAR for better modeling of heterogeneous time series.
problem Modeling structurally heterogeneous processes in social, health, and behavioral sciences.
method Adaptive weighting schemes for penalized estimation of multiple-subject multivariate time series.
result Improved estimation performance compared to alternative estimators.
Enhanced DFO using adaptive batch-based FD estimates.
problem Derivative-free optimization with imprecise gradient estimates.
method Adaptive batch-based finite difference estimation and dynamic sampling strategy.
result Algorithm achieves convergence rate similar to KW and SPSA methods.
CATE Lasso: Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation with High-Dimensional Linear Regressionecon.EM
Estimates CATEs using high-dimensional linear regression models.
problem Estimating individualized causal effects (CATEs) in two treatments.
method Proposes a Lasso regression method for consistently estimating CATEs under high-dimensional and non-sparse parameters, leveraging the assumption of implicit sparsity.
result The proposed method is consistent for estimating CATEs.
New method measures treatment effects across different groups.
problem Understanding treatment effects across subgroups while accounting for covariates.
method Proposes BGATE, a new parameter for balanced group average treatment effect.
result Demonstrates usefulness of BGATE in estimating treatment heterogeneity.
Improved A/B testing by leveraging system similarities.
problem Traditional A/B testing ignores potential system similarities.
method Off-policy estimation to exploit system propensities.
result Improved A/B testing estimators achieve better accuracy.
The paper corrects biases in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
problem Systematic bias in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
method A bias-corrected estimator for both measures is proposed, highlighting shared steps and useful consequences.
result Simultaneous estimation of differential entropy and intrinsic dimension provides complementary perspectives on underlying manifolds.
DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.
problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.
A Comparative Study of Methods for Estimating Conditional Shapley Values and When to Use Themstat.ML
New methods for estimating conditional Shapley values compared and evaluated.
problem Estimating precise conditional Shapley values for tabular data models.
method Developed new and extended methods using Monte Carlo integration and regression.
result Recommendations for choosing between Monte Carlo and regression methods based on data distribution.
Combines Gaussian process and Geometric Harmonics for better uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in kernel-based methods.
method Combines Gaussian process and Geometric Harmonics.
result Alternative interpretations of uncertainty and accelerated Bayesian Optimization.
Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In many cases available datasets have relatively few comparisons (e.g. there are on…
We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit-maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Due to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heteroge…
Detrended fluctuation analysis as a regression framework: Estimating dependence at different scalesq-fin.ST
We propose a framework combining detrended fluctuation analysis with standard regression methodology. The method is built on detrended variances and covariances and it is designed to estimate regression parameters at different scales and under potential non-stationarity and power-law correlations. The former feature al…
Study exact community detection in k-community Gaussian mixtures with different intensities.
problem Community detection in k-community Gaussian mixtures with varying intensities.
method Explicitly find the threshold for exact recovery of maximum likelihood estimation.
result Threshold for exact recovery of maximum likelihood estimation is identified.
Proposes a model to estimate effects of multiple related treatments.
problem Estimating effects of many related treatments in observational data.
method Customized ridge regression to reduce noise and MSE.
result Significantly reduces MSE for individual sub-treatments while allowing reconstruction of aggregated treatment effects.