Paper proposes a diagnostic tool for evaluating model performance out-of-sample.
problem Evaluating model performance on unseen data.
method Uses a finite calibration dataset to assess future losses.
result Provides guarantees under weak assumptions and quantifies distribution shifts.
Establishes statistical and computational bounds for influence diagnostics.
problem Identifying influential datapoints or subsets in machine learning models.
method Finite-sample statistical bounds and computational complexity for influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations.
result Established statistical and computational guarantees for influence diagnostics.
New diagnostic tool for assessing approximate Bayesian inference.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of approximate Bayesian inference.
method Reframe the problem in terms of incompatible conditional distributions and use Gibbs priors.
result The diagnostic tool can discover the inductive bias in various Bayesian models and approximations.
Study develops a diagnostic tool for rare diseases using reinforcement learning.
problem Minimize medical tests while reducing diagnostic uncertainty for rare diseases.
method Investigated reinforcement learning algorithms, combined expert knowledge with clinical data, integrated ontological information.
result Demonstrated a feasible decision support tool for rare diseases.
Develops a diagnostic framework for interest rate model calibration, showing equivalence to Weighted Least Squares and revealing boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability.
problem Calibration of stochastic interest rate models
method Diagnostic framework using non-linear regression and analytical tractability of At-The-Money caps
result Reveals boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability
Machine learning improves diagnostic test accuracy for bovine tuberculosis.
problem Improving diagnostic test sensitivity for bovine tuberculosis.
method Machine learning to assess risk landscapes and predict infection.
result Test sensitivity improved, detecting 240 more infected herds per year.
AI enhances cancer diagnostics using spectroscopy.
problem Early and accurate cancer diagnosis.
method Combining AI with spectroscopy-based techniques.
result AI improves cancer diagnostics speed and safety.
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a very useful tool for analyzing the diagnostic/classification power of instruments/classification schemes as long as a binary-scale gold standard is available. When the gold standard is continuous and there is no confirmative threshold, ROC curve becomes less useful…
Machine learning classifies colorectal tissue using photoacoustic microscopy.
problem Traditional diagnostic methods for colorectal cancer are limited in detail and painful.
method Machine learning applied to acoustic resolution photoacoustic microscopy.
result Machine learning accurately classified benign and malignant tissue.
Characterizing a patient's progression through stages of sepsis is critical for enabling risk stratification and adaptive, personalized treatment. However, commonly used sepsis diagnostic criteria fail to account for significant underlying heterogeneity, both between patients as well as over time in a single patient. W…
This study connects prevalence and machine learning for diagnostic testing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for diagnostic tests.
method Developed a numerical homotopy algorithm to estimate classification boundaries and quantify uncertainty.
result The proposed method stabilizes uncertainty quantification in machine learning for diagnostic tests.
Cockpit provides tools for debugging deep neural networks during training.
problem Limited real-time training diagnostics for deep learning models.
method Cockpit uses novel higher-order information about gradient distribution and curvature.
result Facilitates identification of learning phases and failure modes.
Paper proposes diagnostics for error and variance estimation in randomized matrix computations.
problem Safe use of randomized matrix algorithms in applications.
method Leave-one-out error estimator and jackknife resampling method.
result Provides rapid diagnostics to assess quality of randomized matrix computations.
This paper simplifies deep ReLU networks into local linear models for better interpretability.
problem Limited transparency and interpretability of deep neural networks, especially ReLU networks.
method Local linear representation and equivalent set of local linear models (LLMs).
result Simplified deep ReLU networks for better interpretability and diagnostics.
Study finds AI can predict diverse cardiac and non-cardiac diagnoses from a single ECG.
problem Narrow focus of ECG analysis models for diverse medical conditions.
method Exploratory study using a single AI model to predict multiple ICD codes.
result Model achieved AUROC scores > 0.8 for 253 cardiac and 172 non-cardiac diagnoses.
Optimizes classification algorithms with bounds on error rates.
problem Bounding uncertainties in classifier outputs for diagnostic testing.
method Set-theoretic and probabilistic arguments to derive uniform error bounds.
result Optimal partition minimizes the largest Gershgorin radius of the confusion matrix.
New robust MPCA method handles casewise and cellwise outliers in tensor data.
problem Outliers, especially casewise and cellwise, affect the performance of standard MPCA.
method Uses a single loss function to reduce the influence of both types of outliers and missing values.
result The new method improves robustness and performance in tensor data analysis.
Proposes PRMs for interpreting financial risk concept drift.
problem Concept drift in high-stakes predictions like credit risk.
method Probabilistic Rule Models (PRMs) using Markov Logic Networks.
result Interpretable rules explain borrower risk changes.
This paper introduces modal epistemic tools for risk management.
problem Identifying and certifying risk claims when institutions lack the necessary epistemic stance.
method Develops crisp and fuzzy modal semantics for assurance and working commitment, distinguishing between object-level risk claims and meta-level epistemic diagnostics.
result Risk governance should model evidential incompleteness and failures of escalation, not just hazards and losses.
New approach interprets machine learning models through feature space transformations.
problem Interpreting models with strongly dependent features in high-dimensional spaces.
method Feature space transformations, including PCA and partial orthogonalization.
result Enhances model interpretation tools for domain experts.
The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be a warning sign. Reduction in diversity, which was an essential aspect of the dyn…
Deep learning speeds sound speed inversion in ultrasound.
problem Limited high-end ultrasound hardware for shear wave imaging.
method Fully convolutional deep neural network using simulated data.
result Inversion of longitudinal sound speed at high frame rates.
Proposes a tool to contrast global vs personalized models in clinical prediction.
problem Balancing global vs personalized models in clinical prediction.
method Localized regression approach using autoencoder for dimension reduction.
result Identification of patient subgroups where global models fall short.
Persistence diagrams from random matrices follow RMT universality, offering a new spectral diagnostic.
problem Understanding spectral properties of random matrices using topological data analysis.
method Applying Morse theory to persistence diagrams of quadratic forms restricted to unit spheres.
result Persistence entropy outperforms traditional level spacing ratios in discriminating random matrix ensembles.
Two data-dependent information metrics are developed to quantify the information of the prior and likelihood functions within a parametric Bayesian model, one of which is closely related to the reference priors from Berger, Bernardo, and Sun, and information measure introduced by Lindley. A combination of theoretical, …
Machine learning models have spread to almost every area of life. They are successfully applied in biology, medicine, finance, physics, and other fields. With modern software it is easy to train even a~complex model that fits the training data and results in high accuracy on the test set. The problem arises when models…
Study integrates causal inference and temporal complexity measures to analyze mental health symptoms.
problem Examining how individual symptom trajectories reveal diagnostic patterns in mental disorders.
method Causal inference, graph analysis, temporal complexity measures, machine learning.
result 91% accuracy in diagnosing symptom dynamics, highlighting disorder-specific causal mechanisms.
Studying the invertibility of deep neural networks (DNNs) provides a principled approach to better understand the behavior of these powerful models. Despite being a promising diagnostic tool, a consistent theory on their invertibility is still lacking. We derive a theoretically motivated approach to explore the preimag…
Proposes and evaluates three diagnostic graphics for probabilistic classifiers.
problem Evaluating and comparing probabilistic classifiers.
method Triptych of diagnostic graphics: reliability diagram, ROC curve, Murphy diagram.
result Visual diagnostics reveal distinct aspects of forecast performance.
Paper proposes machine learning model for early Alzheimer's diagnosis.
problem Early and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease.
method Machine learning models, demographic, biomarker, and cognitive test data.
result 90% accuracy and 87% accuracy in predicting Alzheimer's development.
Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus…
This research synthesizes 12-lead ECG from a single-lead ECG device.
problem Limited cardiac diagnostics from single-lead ECG devices.
method Random forest machine learning model using historical 12-lead recordings.
result Synthesized 12-lead ECG with accuracies exceeding 90%.
The article explains how to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers using unlabeled data.
problem Estimating sensitivity and specificity of binary medical diagnostic tests without gold standard tests.
method Modifying diagnostic test solutions to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers on unlabeled data.
result The approach can be used to estimate accuracy statistics for supervised or unsupervised binary classifiers on unlabeled data.
Deep learning model performs differently in TB-specific vs non-TB-specific chest X-rays.
problem Limited generalizability of machine learning models for tuberculosis detection.
method Developed a DCNN model using a TB-specific CXR dataset and tested it on a non-TB-specific CXR dataset.
result A deep learning model trained on one population's TB CXR data does not generalize well to another population.
A new framework bridges classical and machine learning methods for reliable inference from complex models.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex systems make classical statistics ineffective for likelihood-free inference.
method Likelihood-Free Frequentist Inference (LF2I) framework that combines classical statistics and machine learning.
result Valid confidence sets with near finite-sample validity can be constructed for any parameter value.
Paper introduces a diagnostic for approximate inference methods.
problem Estimating errors in probabilistic inference algorithms, especially for approximate methods.
method Repeatedly simulate datasets from the prior and perform inference on each, estimating a symmetric KL-divergence.
result A diagnostic for approximate inference methods can be estimated using symmetric KL-divergence.
AI predicts medical specialty diagnostic choices from EHR records.
problem Predicting timely medical specialty diagnostic workups for patients.
method Ensemble of feed-forward neural networks trained on EHR data.
result Significantly higher accuracy compared to traditional checklists.
Paper detects biases in medical imaging ML models using counterfactual analysis.
problem Bias in medical imaging ML models negatively impacts generalization performance.
method Counterfactual invariance framework combining conditional latent diffusion models and statistical hypothesis testing.
result The method identifies and quantifies biases without direct access to counterfactual data.
TRACE analyzes risk changes in models trained on shifted data.
problem Understanding performance changes when a model trained on shifted data is used.
method TRACE framework decomposes risk change into four factors: generalization gaps, model change penalty, and covariate shift penalty.
result TRACE provides a diagnostic tool to understand and quantify risk changes due to covariate shift.
The risks and perils of overfitting in machine learning are well known. However most of the treatment of this, including diagnostic tools and remedies, was developed for the supervised learning case. In this work, we aim to offer new perspectives on the characterization and prevention of overfitting in deep Reinforceme…
This work improves diffusion models by estimating the optimal loss value for better training diagnostics.
problem The optimal loss value of diffusion models is unknown and not indicative of absolute data-fitting quality.
method Derive the optimal loss in closed form and develop effective estimators, including a stochastic variant.
result Unlocking the optimal loss as a metric for diagnosing training quality of diffusion models.
New risk models use chaotic attractors to predict extreme events.
problem Predicting Black Swan events in financial markets.
method Combining heavy-tailed priors with chaotic dynamics (Lorenz and Rossler systems).
result Models generate volatility clustering, fat tails, and extreme events.
Low-cost device diagnoses diseases using deep learning.
problem Limited healthcare access and variable disease properties.
method Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) on a Raspberry Pi Zero.
result Achieves 90% accuracy for symptom-based diagnoses and 91% for visual skin diseases.
Graph-based approach repairs programs from diagnostic feedback.
problem Learning to repair programs from limited labeled data and compiler error messages.
method Introduces program-feedback graph and graph neural network for reasoning, and self-supervised learning with unlabeled programs.
result DrRepair significantly outperforms prior work, achieving high repair rates.
Develops a fast non-invasive tool for diagnosing pediatric sleep apnea.
problem Diagnosing pediatric obstructive sleep apnea using an overnight sleep study is often impractical.
method Combines persistent homology, geometric shape analysis, and convolutional neural networks to classify facial images.
result Facial features associated with obstructive sleep apnea can be recognized for diagnosis.
Paper proposes an integrated M&D approach for large multistream data.
problem Inability to progress in monitoring and diagnostics due to high-dimensionality and volume of multistream data.
method Adaptive Principal Component monitoring (APC) and Principal Component Signal Recovery (PCSR).
result The integrated M&D approach enables early detection and streamlined SPC.
Proposes a new framework for evaluating diagnostic models with multiple co-primary endpoints.
problem Overoptimistic assessments of predictive performance in automated medical testing devices.
method Multiple testing framework for diagnostic accuracy studies with co-primary endpoints, using a parametric simultaneous test procedure and Bayesian approach to determine optimal number of models.
result Our approach leads to a better final diagnostic model and increased statistical power.
The paper analyzes convergence in SGD with momentum and proposes a diagnostic test.
problem Detecting convergence in stochastic gradient descent with momentum.
method Analyzes the transient and stationary phases of SGD with momentum, constructs a statistical diagnostic test.
result The proposed diagnostic test effectively detects convergence in the stationary phase of SGD with momentum.