A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimal payoff choice constrained by Bregman-Wasserstein divergence.
New inequality criterion for a mean field equation on spheres.
Study large deviations in random walks on Lie groups.
MPC framework reduces execution costs and schedule deviations in trading.
The paper explores optimal insurance contracts using various deviation measures.
Stress shocks are often calculated as multiples of the standard deviation of a history set. This paper investigates how many standard deviations are required to guarantee that this shock exceeds any observation within the history set, given the additional constraint of kurtosis. The results of this analysis are then us…
Generative models often misrepresent class frequencies; this paper calibrates them.
Proposes ITISC for clustering with minimized worst-case expected distortions.
Study a continuous portfolio optimization with a new CVaR-like constraint using martingale approach.
Neural networks are increasingly used in complex (data-driven) simulations as surrogates or for accelerating the computation of classical surrogates. In many applications physical constraints, such as mass or energy conservation, must be satisfied to obtain reliable results. However, standard machine learning algorithm…
Optimizes multi-period portfolios with tail-risk constraints using neural networks.
In this paper, we are concerned with obtaining distribution-free concentration inequalities for mixture of independent Bernoulli variables that incorporate a notion of variance. Missing mass is the total probability mass associated to the outcomes that have not been seen in a given sample which is an important quantity…
The average portfolio structure of institutional investors is shown to have properties which account for transaction costs in an optimal way. This implies that financial institutions unknowingly display collective rationality, or Wisdom of the Crowd. Individual deviations from the rational benchmark are ample, which il…
Kernel-based tests for shape constraints in finance.
Unified framework for unlearning in diffusion models using KL divergence and likelihood constraints.
The paper analyzes a private likelihood-ratio test for frequency tables under differential privacy constraints.
This paper achieves optimal regret bounds for locally private linear contextual bandit.
Suppose centers are fit to points by heuristically minimizing the -means cost; what is the corresponding fit over the source distribution? This question is resolved here for distributions with bounded moments; in particular, the difference between the sample cost and distribution cost decays with $…
Since their invention, generative adversarial networks (GANs) have become a popular approach for learning to model a distribution of real (unlabeled) data. Convergence problems during training are overcome by Wasserstein GANs which minimize the distance between the model and the empirical distribution in terms of a dif…
This paper provides a non-robust interpretation of the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem by relating the distributional uncertainties to the chance probabilities. Our analysis allows a decision-maker to interpret the size of the ambiguity set, which is often lack of business meaning, through the chance…
Level-set optimization formulations with data-driven constraints minimize a regularization functional subject to matching observations to a given error level. These formulations are widely used, particularly for matrix completion and sparsity promotion in data interpolation and denoising. The misfit level is typically …
Social Security and other public policies can be viewed as a series of cash in and outflows that depend on parameters such as the age distribution of the population and the retirement age. Given forecasts of these parameters, policies can be designed to be financially stable, i.e., to terminate with a zero balance. If …
Paper tackles offline CMDP problems with near-optimal algorithm and sample complexity bound.
New method reduces total cost constraints in CBwK to sqrt(T) with fairness application.
Framework generates precise synthetic populations for scalable modeling.
So-called sparse estimators arise in the context of model fitting, when one a priori assumes that only a few (unknown) model parameters deviate from zero. Sparsity constraints can be useful when the estimation problem is under-determined, i.e. when number of model parameters is much higher than the number of data point…
The paper introduces a new divergence for portfolio management to outperform a benchmark.
A simplified model for fixed income portfolio optimisation.
Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.
Study improves portfolio risk estimation methods using robust covariance and CVaR constraints.
Paper characterizes monotonic mean-deviation risk measures.
We extend previous large deviations results for the randomised Heston model to the case of moderate deviations. The proofs involve the Gärtner-Ellis theorem and sharp large deviations tools.
Submodular functions are a broad class of set functions, which naturally arise in diverse areas. Many algorithms have been suggested for the maximization of these functions. Unfortunately, once the function deviates from submodularity, the known algorithms may perform arbitrarily poorly. Amending this issue, by obtaini…
Paper proves large deviation principle for stochastic approximations.
We characterize the asymptotic performance of nonparametric goodness of fit testing. The exponential decay rate of the type-II error probability is used as the asymptotic performance metric, and a test is optimal if it achieves the maximum rate subject to a constant level constraint on the type-I error probability. We …
The aim of this paper is to provide several examples of convex risk measures necessary for the application of the general framework for portfolio theory of Maier-Paape and Zhu, presented in Part I of this series (arXiv:1710.04579 [q-fin.PM]). As alternative to classical portfolio risk measures such as the standard devi…
We consider adaptive system identification problems with convex constraints and propose a family of regularized Least-Mean-Square (LMS) algorithms. We show that with a properly selected regularization parameter the regularized LMS provably dominates its conventional counterpart in terms of mean square deviations. We es…
In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…
Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.
New framework guides resource usage to achieve sublinear regret in adversarial settings.
Study large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
Proposes new deviation measures using Minkowski gauges.
In this paper we analyze a dynamic recursive extension of the (static) notion of a deviation measure and its properties. We study distribution invariant deviation measures and show that the only dynamic deviation measure which is law invariant and recursive is the variance. We also solve the problem of optimal risk-sha…
We consider a group of mean-variance investors with mimicking desire such that each investor is willing to penalize deviations of his portfolio composition from compositions of other group members. Penalizing norm constraints are already applied for statistical improvement of Markowitz portfolio procedure in order to c…
Extends probabilistic approach for Kahler-Einstein metrics on Fano manifolds.
We provide a unifying treatment of pathwise moderate deviations for models commonly used in financial applications, and for related integrated functionals. Suitable scaling allows us to transfer these results into small-time, large-time and tail asymptotics for diffusions, as well as for option prices and realised vari…
Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the wei…
New model tackles real-world distribution mismatches in machine learning.