The paper analyzes how a known density function can be deviated by a mixture distribution as more data is collected.
problem Modeling the deviation of a known density function when more data is collected.
method A novel distinguishability notion is used to establish rates of convergence for maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure.
result Rates of convergence for the maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure are established under the Wasserstein metric.
Estimates parameters in a deviated Gaussian mixture model.
problem Testing goodness-of-fit between a known function and a mixture of experts.
method Constructs novel Voronoi-based loss functions to estimate parameters.
result Characterizes local convergence rates of parameter estimation more accurately.
Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is evaluated on the estimated mixture instead of the (unknown) true one, then it is impor…
This paper presents new deviation inequalities that are valid uniformly in time under adaptive sampling in a multi-armed bandit model. The deviations are measured using the Kullback-Leibler divergence in a given one-dimensional exponential family, and may take into account several arms at a time. They are obtained by c…
In this paper, we are concerned with obtaining distribution-free concentration inequalities for mixture of independent Bernoulli variables that incorporate a notion of variance. Missing mass is the total probability mass associated to the outcomes that have not been seen in a given sample which is an important quantity…
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trial…
We study the problem of separating a mixture of distributions, all of which come from interventions on a known causal bayesian network. Given oracle access to marginals of all distributions resulting from interventions on the network, and estimates of marginals from the mixture distribution, we want to recover the mixi…
The standard deviation and Gini mean difference order based on tail behavior.
problem Ordering between standard deviation and Gini mean difference for real-valued risks.
method Analysis of the mean excess function of the pairwise difference ∣X−X′∣. result Dominance regimes of SD and GMD are determined by tail behavior of the distribution.
An evolutionary algorithm separates mixed DNA profiles in forensic genetics.
problem Deconvolving mixed DNA profiles from crime samples.
method Multiple population evolutionary algorithm (MEA) with guided mutation.
result The MEA successfully deconvoluted DNA profiles from crime samples.
Mixture model-based clustering has become an increasingly popular data analysis technique since its introduction over fifty years ago, and is now commonly utilized within a family setting. Families of mixture models arise when the component parameters, usually the component covariance (or scale) matrices, are decompose…
A method to control false membership rate in unsupervised mixture models.
problem Controlling misclassification in ambiguous datasets.
method Develops a plug-in procedure with theoretical guarantees on FMR.
result The false membership rate does not exceed the pre-defined nominal level α. Concentration of infinitely exchangeable sequences with bounded-difference constants
problem Quantifying uncertainty in AI benchmarks
method Using a mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound
result Tight, mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound for zero-sum linear contrasts
New framework optimizes label shift adaptation using aligned distribution mixture.
problem Label shift where source and target label distributions differ.
method Aligned Distribution Mixture (ADM) framework, incorporating insights from generalization theory.
result The ADM framework improves four typical label shift methods and introduces a one-step approach.
Suppose k centers are fit to m points by heuristically minimizing the k-means cost; what is the corresponding fit over the source distribution? This question is resolved here for distributions with p≥4 bounded moments; in particular, the difference between the sample cost and distribution cost decays with $…
A new method improves data generation quality by correcting score mismatches.
problem Score mismatch issue in conditional score-based data generation methods.
method Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss for classifier training.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods on Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks.
Proposes a neural network for sparsity regularization in inverse problems using Gaussian mixture.
problem Sparsity in inverse problems with limited significant components.
method Probabilistic sparsity prior as a mixture of degenerate Gaussians, trained with neural network.
result Neural network yields lower mean square error than LASSO, group LASSO, and iterative hard thresholding.
Preterm newborns undergo various stresses that may materialize as learning problems at school-age. Sleep staging of the Electroencephalogram (EEG), followed by prediction of their brain-age from these sleep states can quantify deviations from normal brain development early (when compared to the known age). Current auto…
Paper proposes efficient and accurate initialization and EM algorithm for PL mixture models.
problem Initialization issues and combinatorial complexity in PL likelihood maximization.
method Initialization algorithm and EM algorithm for true log-likelihood maximization.
result Proposed algorithm provides accurate initial estimates and efficiently maximizes true log-likelihood.
Algorithm clusters mixtures with bounded covariances under specific separation conditions.
problem Clustering mixtures of bounded covariance distributions with fine-grained separation.
method Introduced clustering refinement and efficient algorithm for accurate clustering.
result First poly-time algorithm for nearly uniform mixtures, and efficient refinement for general mixtures.
uMoE trains NNs with uncertain data by embedding uncertainty into training.
problem Managing aleatoric uncertainty in NN-based predictive models.
method Divide and Conquer strategy, Expert components, Gating Unit.
result uMoE outperforms baseline methods in uncertainty management.
The paper addresses risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.
problem Risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.
method Characterizes Pareto-optimal allocations using Gini deviation, mean-median deviation, and inter-quantile difference as variability measures.
result Optimal allocations are not comonotonic and feature a mixture of pairwise counter-monotonic structures.
New framework for understanding BSS robustness under model violations.
problem Understanding how BSS solutions behave under statistical prior assumptions violations.
method Introducing an informative topology on the space of possible causes and explicit continuity guarantees.
result First comprehensive robustness framework for BSS.
In this paper, we consider sequential online prediction (SOP) for streaming data in the presence of outliers and change points. We propose an INstant TEmporal structure Learning (INTEL) algorithm to address this problem. Our INTEL algorithm is developed based on a full consideration of the duality between online predic…
Detecting anomalies in multivariate functional data using Bayesian nonparametric methods.
problem Detecting anomalies in functional data.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach with infinite mixture of multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Anomalous observations assigned to small mixture components.
A method to remove mean-shift noise from PCA using knockoffs.
problem High sensitivity of PCA to mean-shift contamination in high-dimensional data.
method Introducing knockoff mean-shift perturbation to separate and remove mean-shift components from PCA.
result The mean-shift spikes are spectrally separable from stable eigenvalues, allowing for robust PCA.
Motivated by a recent result of Daskalakis et al. 2018, we analyze the population version of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the case of \textit{truncated} mixtures of two Gaussians. Truncated samples from a d-dimensional mixture of two Gaussians $\frac{1}{2} \mathcal{N}(\vecμ, \vecΣ)+ \frac{1}{2} \mathca…
CADGMM detects anomalies by capturing complex correlations in data.
problem Detecting anomalies in complex, unstructured data.
method CADGMM uses a graph structure to encode correlations, then a dual-encoder to learn low-dimensional latent space, followed by a Gaussian Mixture Model for anomaly detection.
result CADGMM effectively detects anomalies in real-world datasets.
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
problem Limited applicability of existing path methods in machine learning.
method Develops a family of paths derived from a generalized mean, including geometric and arithmetic mixtures.
result Empirical gains in Bayesian inference and generative model evaluation.
Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.
problem Risk measurement and analysis in finance.
method Characterizes Star-Shaped deviation measures through acceptance sets and convex deviation measures.
result Exposes the relationship between Star-Shaped risk measures and deviation measures.
High-dimensional shrinkage risk depends on the default prior for the common scale.
problem Choosing the default prior for the common scale in high-dimensional shrinkage.
method Using radial-power benchmark to compare variance-flat and standard deviation-flat priors.
result The standard deviation-flat prior has a one-unit asymptotic risk advantage near the origin.
New framework explains leading digit patterns without probabilistic assumptions.
problem Explaining leading digit distributions without relying on probabilistic models.
method Shift-invariant functional equation and affine-plus-periodic formulas.
result Unified mathematical foundation for understanding digit distributions.
Most classification algorithms used in high energy physics fall under the category of supervised machine learning. Such methods require a training set containing both signal and background events and are prone to classification errors should this training data be systematically inaccurate for example due to the assumed…
Paper characterizes monotonic mean-deviation risk measures.
problem Developing consistent risk measures from mean-deviation models.
method Applying a risk-weighting function to the deviation part of a mean-deviation model.
result Characterizes monotonic mean-deviation measures as consistent risk measures.
We extend previous large deviations results for the randomised Heston model to the case of moderate deviations. The proofs involve the Gärtner-Ellis theorem and sharp large deviations tools.
Paper proves large deviation principle for stochastic approximations.
problem Asymptotic estimates of learning algorithm deviations.
method Weak convergence approach to large deviations.
result Identifies appropriate scaling sequence and new representation for rate function.
Improved concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull variables enhance statistical and machine learning applications.
problem Improving concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables.
method Developed new concentration inequalities for sums of independent sub-Weibull random variables, including a new sub-Weibull parameter.
result New concentration inequalities with sharper constants and a mixture of sub-Gaussian and sub-Weibull tails.
In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…
Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.
problem Large deviations in life insurance portfolios with bounded losses and variances.
method Upper bound from standard large deviations, counterexample for full large deviation principle.
result Exponential bound for average loss exceeding a threshold.
Study large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
problem Large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion measures on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Rough path theory and manifold-valued Malliavin calculus.
result Proved a large deviation principle for pinned hypoelliptic diffusion measures.
Proposes new deviation measures using Minkowski gauges.
problem Lack of suitable acceptance sets for deviation measures.
method Derives deviation measures through Minkowski gauges of acceptable sets.
result Any positive homogeneous deviation measure can be accommodated in the framework.
In this paper we analyze a dynamic recursive extension of the (static) notion of a deviation measure and its properties. We study distribution invariant deviation measures and show that the only dynamic deviation measure which is law invariant and recursive is the variance. We also solve the problem of optimal risk-sha…
We provide a unifying treatment of pathwise moderate deviations for models commonly used in financial applications, and for related integrated functionals. Suitable scaling allows us to transfer these results into small-time, large-time and tail asymptotics for diffusions, as well as for option prices and realised vari…
Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the wei…
Connections between Lie derivatives and the deviation equation has been investigated in spaces with affine connection. The deviation equations of the geodesics as well as deviation equations of non-geodesics trajectories have been obtained on this base. This is done via imposing certain conditions on the Lie derivative…
Unified approach to stochastic Volterra systems' deviations.
problem Large and moderate deviations for stochastic Volterra systems.
method Weak convergence approach by Budhijara, Dupuis and Ellis.
result Unified treatment of deviations for a broad class of stochastic Volterra equations.
Study large deviations in random walks on Lie groups.
problem Large deviations in sub-Riemannian random walks.
method Prove large deviation principle for random walks on stratified Lie groups.
result Proved a large deviation principle with a rate function adapted to sub-Riemannian geometry.
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
Let M be a smooth manifold and S a semi-spray defined on a sub-bundle C of the tangent bundle TM. In this work it is proved that the only non-trivial k-jet approximation to the exact geodesic deviation equation of S, linear on the deviation functions and invariant under an spec…