A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
sFML learns stochastic dynamical systems from data.
The goal of counterfactual learning for statistical machine translation (SMT) is to optimize a target SMT system from logged data that consist of user feedback to translations that were predicted by another, historic SMT system. A challenge arises by the fact that risk-averse commercial SMT systems deterministically lo…
State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.
Reinforcement learning is a promising approach to learning robotics controllers. It has recently been shown that algorithms based on finite-difference estimates of the policy gradient are competitive with algorithms based on the policy gradient theorem. We propose a theoretical framework for understanding this phenomen…
Systemic risk measures are crucial for the stability of financial markets, yet classical formulations fail to capture the complexity of market volatility. We propose a new framework for systemic risk measurement on the variable-exponent Bochner-Lebesgue space , where the exponent is a random va…
Study on regret minimization in deterministic MDPs.
Unified treatment of RC in stochastic and deterministic settings.
Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are energy-based neural-networks which are commonly used as the building blocks for deep architectures neural architectures. In this work, we derive a deterministic framework for the training, evaluation, and use of RBMs based upon the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) mean-field appro…
A deterministic system of interacting agents is considered as a model for economic dynamics. The dynamics of the system is described by a coupled map lattice with near neighbor interactions. The evolution of each agent results from the competition between two factors: the agent's own tendency to grow and the environmen…
New algorithm finds optimal policy with polynomial trajectories in deterministic systems.
We derive a data-driven method for the approximation of the Koopman generator called gEDMD, which can be regarded as a straightforward extension of EDMD (extended dynamic mode decomposition). This approach is applicable to deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems. It can be used for computing eigenvalues, eigenfu…
Herding defines a deterministic dynamical system at the edge of chaos. It generates a sequence of model states and parameters by alternating parameter perturbations with state maximizations, where the sequence of states can be interpreted as "samples" from an associated MRF model. Herding differs from maximum likelihoo…
Efficient inference for multimodal Gaussian mixture models of interacting dynamical systems.
Unified framework for solving fixed-point equations in deterministic and stochastic settings.
Clustering is a crucial component of many data mining systems involving the analysis and exploration of various data. Data diversity calls for clustering algorithms to be accurate while providing stable (i.e., deterministic and robust) results on arbitrary input networks. Moreover, modern systems often operate with lar…
New method distinguishes stochastic from deterministic signals using excursion counts.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
New method ensures consistent inference across different tensor parallel sizes for large language models.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) were initially proposed to generate images by learning from a large number of samples. Recently, GANs have been used to emulate complex physical systems such as turbulent flows. However, a critical question must be answered before GANs can be considered trusted emulators for physi…
We test whether the futures prices of some commodity and energy markets are determined by stochastic rules or exhibit nonlinear deterministic endogenous fluctuations. As for the methodologies, we use the maximal Lyapunov exponents (MLE) and a determinism test, both based on the reconstruction of the phase space. In par…
This study proposes an approach based on a perturbation technique to construct global solutions to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE). The main idea is to expand a solution in a series of powers of a small parameter scaling the uncertainty in the economy around a solution to the deterministic model, i…
Electrostatics method samples complex distributions deterministically.
We introduce a prototype model in an attempt to capture some aspects of market dynamics simulating a trading mechanism. The model description starts with a discrete-space, continuous-time Markov process describing arrival and movement of orders with different prices. We then perform a re-scaling procedure leading to a …
Deep reinforcement learning method finds rare events in complex systems.
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
We consider the problem of reinforcement learning over episodes of a finite-horizon deterministic system and as a solution propose optimistic constraint propagation (OCP), an algorithm designed to synthesize efficient exploration and value function generalization. We establish that when the true value function lies wit…
Machine learning infers time-reversible dynamics from data.
Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) is a major problem to be addressed by many cities. Understanding the behavior of sewer system through proper urban hydrological models is an effective method of enhancing sewer system management. Conventional deterministic methods, which heavily rely on physical principles, is inappropriat…
Unified kernel framework extends to stochastic systems, improving numerical stability.
The one-dimensional deterministic economic model recently studied by Gonzalez-Estevez et al. [Physica A 387, 4367 (2008)] is considered on a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions. In this model, the evolution of each agent is described by a map coupled with its nearest neighbors. The map has …
Extends linear structural causal models to include deterministic relations and latent confounders for causal discovery.
Graph-EFM models weather uncertainty with graph-based ensembles.
Develops a reinforcement learning algorithm for learning deterministic equilibrium policies in time-inconsistent control problems.
New method estimates SDE parameters efficiently using WCE and SGD.
Optimal control of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is a major challenge in the domain of robot learning. Given the intractability of the global control problem, state-of-the-art algorithms focus on approximate sequential optimization techniques, that heavily rely on heuristics for regularization in order to achi…
The hierarchical structure of production planning has the advantage of assigning different decision variables to their respective time horizons and therefore ensures their manageability. However, the restrictive structure of this top-down approach implying that upper level decisions are the constraints for lower level …
A deterministic system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economic activity among interacting agents. The values of the maps represent the wealth of the agents. The dynamics of the system is controlled by two parameters. One parameter expresses the growth capacity of the agents and the other describes the local…
This paper proves a version for stochastic differential equations of the Lie-Scheffers Theorem. This result characterizes the existence of nonlinear superposition rules for the general solution of those equations in terms of the involution properties of the distribution generated by the vector fields that define it. Wh…
EVI-MMD approximates target distributions via MMD minimization with adaptive kernel.
Recently, a number of mostly -norm regularized least squares type deterministic algorithms have been proposed to address the problem of \emph{sparse} adaptive signal estimation and system identification. From a Bayesian perspective, this task is equivalent to maximum a posteriori probability estimation under a …
Continuous control imitation learning fails if expert actions are smooth.
This paper describes a new method for Symbolic Regression that allows to find mathematical expressions from a dataset. This method has a strong mathematical basis. As opposed to other methods such as Genetic Programming, this method is deterministic, and does not involve the creation of a population of initial solution…
This paper improves parameter estimation for autonomous systems with unmodeled dynamics.
Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) is a popular technique used to increase the interpretability and explainability of black box Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. LIME typically generates an explanation for a single prediction by any ML model by learning a simpler interpretable model (e.g. linear cla…
Market equilibrium price proven in a large-agent model.
Based on the stochastic model proposed by Patriarca-Kaski-Chakraborti that describes the exchange of wealth between economic agents, we analyze the evolution of the corresponding economies under the assumption of a Gaussian background, modeling the exchange parameter . We demonstrate, that within Gaussian noise,…
This paper presents a novel approach to numerically solve stochastic differential games for nonlinear systems. The proposed approach relies on the nonlinear Feynman-Kac theorem that establishes a connection between parabolic deterministic partial differential equations and forward-backward stochastic differential equat…
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.