Proposes logistic-beta process for modeling dependent probabilities with beta marginals.
problem Limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for dependent random probabilities.
method Introduces logistic-beta process with logistic transformation and beta marginals, capable of modeling dependence in discrete and continuous domains.
result Logistic-beta processes enable effective posterior inference and design of computationally tractable dependent Bayesian nonparametric models.
New bounds on continuous random variables' right-tail probabilities.
problem Finding precise upper and lower limits for right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Developed new bounds based on PDF, first derivative, and two parameters.
result The new bounds are tight for various continuous random variables.
The study challenges the reliability of VaR due to market randomness.
problem Reliability and accuracy of VaR predictions are compromised by market randomness.
method Introduces market-based probabilities of price and return, dependent on trade values and volumes.
result Market-based price volatility is more accurate than frequency-based VaR predictions.
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
problem Uncertainty in predicting macroeconomic variables like prices and returns.
method Defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on forecast accuracy based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Accuracy of forecasts of probabilities of macroeconomic variables doesn't exceed Gaussian approximations.
The main goal of this article is to understand how the length spectrum of a random surface depends on its genus. Here a random surface means a surface obtained by randomly gluing together an even number of triangles carrying a fixed metric. Given suitable restrictions on the genus of the surface, we consider the number…
Proposes rounding method for precise treatment effect estimation under budget constraints.
problem Resource-constrained experimental design for precise treatment effect estimation.
method Dependent randomized rounding procedure to convert assignment probabilities into binary treatment decisions.
result Improved estimator precision through variance reduction and efficient inference.
New DKPP family controls positive and negative dependence in random subsets.
problem Challenges in seamlessly bridging probabilistic models for positive and negative dependence.
method Introduced DKPP family and developed computational methods for probabilistic operations and inference.
result Controllability of positive and negative dependence demonstrated through numerical experiments.
First passage models, where corporate assets undergo correlated random walks and a company defaults if its assets fall below a threshold provide an attractive framework for modeling the default process. Typical one year default correlations are small, i.e., of order a few percent, but nonetheless including correlations…
Representations based on random walks can exploit discrete data distributions for clustering and classification. We extend such representations from discrete to continuous distributions. Transition probabilities are now calculated using a diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that inversely depends on the dat…
When observations are organized into groups where commonalties exist amongst them, the dependent random measures can be an ideal choice for modeling. One of the propositions of the dependent random measures is that the atoms of the posterior distribution are shared amongst groups, and hence groups can borrow informatio…
Study reveals a universal formula for knotting in random equilateral polygons.
problem Probability of knotting in equilateral random polygons.
method Extensive Monte Carlo simulations with improved algorithms and knot invariants.
result A universal scaling formula for knotting probability with number of edges, involving exponential and power law factors.
Estimates mean of random vector with near-optimal error in all directions.
problem Estimating the mean of a random vector with direction-dependent accuracy.
method Proves existence of an estimator with near-optimal error in all directions under certain conditions.
result The estimator satisfies the error bound for all directions, with probability 1-δ.
The covariance graph (aka bi-directed graph) of a probability distribution p is the undirected graph G where two nodes are adjacent iff their corresponding random variables are marginally dependent in p. In this paper, we present a graphical criterion for reading dependencies from G, under the assumption that $…
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities…
New approach for handling uncertain probabilities.
problem Handling imprecise or uncertain probabilities.
method Introducing interval probability measures and updating rules.
result Formal solution to the Keynes-Ramsey controversy.
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
We develop a probabilistic framework for sequential random projection.
problem Challenges of sequential decision-making under uncertainty.
method Novel construction of a stopped process and method of mixtures.
result Achieved a non-asymptotic probability bound for random projection.
The paper examines how market trade values and volumes affect price autocorrelation.
problem Understanding the impact of market trade values and volumes on price autocorrelation.
method Derives the dependence of price statistical moments and volatility on trade values and volumes, and assesses statistical moments and correlations by conventional frequency-based probabilities.
result Highlights the impact of market trade randomness on price statistical moments and autocorrelation.
Investigates VaR behavior for sums of one-sided random variables, showing impossibilities and conditions for super-additivity.
problem Investigates the behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for sums of one-sided random variables.
method Analyzes the extremal aggregation behavior of VaR, introduces structural conditions for super-additivity.
result Characterizes when VaR is fully super-additive and provides unified framework for various dependence structures.
Randomized SINDy learns dynamic data structures using probabilistic methods.
problem Learning time-dependent data structures in dynamic systems.
method Sequential machine learning with a probabilistic approach, incorporating feature augmentation and Tikhonov regularization.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in regression and binary classification using real-world data.
The randomized-feature approach has been successfully employed in large-scale kernel approximation and supervised learning. The distribution from which the random features are drawn impacts the number of features required to efficiently perform a learning task. Recently, it has been shown that employing data-dependent …
We show that time-dependent fluctuations {Δx} in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. {Δx} is the outcome of N random steps from the origin and ∣Δx∣ is the square of the Euclidean distance of the final …
Proposes a method to estimate time-dependent probability density functions using binary classifiers.
problem Estimating time-dependent probability density functions of stochastic processes.
method Trains a time-dependent binary classifier to discriminate between realizations of a stochastic process at two nearby time instants.
result Explicitly models and accurately reconstructs complex time-dependent, multi-modal, and near-degenerate densities.
PAM models generate dependent random distributions across groups with overlapping clusters.
problem Generating dependent random distributions across multiple groups.
method Atom skipping in an infinite mixture model.
result Interpretable posterior inference of cluster exclusivity and sharing.
A random walk on a countable group G acting on a metric space X gives a characteristic called the drift which depends only on the transition probability measure μ of the random walk. The drift is the `translation distance' of the random walk. In this paper, we prove that the drift varies continuously with the tra…
New tree-structured Markov fields with Poisson marginals for counting variables.
problem Counting variables with complex dependencies.
method Tree-structured Markov random fields with Poisson marginals.
result Straightforward sampling and joint probability calculations.
Estimates copula density for complex data distributions.
problem Estimating copula density from observed data.
method Neural network-based copula density neural estimation (CODINE).
result Novel approach capable of modeling complex distributions.
RVFL networks can efficiently approximate Lipschitz functions in L∞ norm.
problem Efficiently approximating Lipschitz continuous functions in L∞ norm.
method Random Vector Functional Link (RVFL) network with ReLU activation functions, proving approximation in L∞ norm.
result An RVFL with ReLU activation functions can approximate Lipschitz continuous functions in L∞ norm.
New method models stopping times that can be equal with non-zero probability.
problem Standard stopping time models assume conditional independence, limiting flexibility.
method Modified Cox construction with bivariate exponential distribution.
result Created a family of stopping times that can be equal with positive probability.
In this manuscript, we analytically and numerically study statistical properties of an heteroskedastic process based on the celebrated ARCH generator of random variables whose variance is defined by a memory of qm-exponencial, form (eqm=1x=ex). Specifically, we inspect the self-correlation function o…
Study tail risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty.
problem Risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty and hidden dependence.
method Introduce hidden dependence, show compatibility with small perturbations, quantify portfolio risk.
result Small deviations in dependence structure can lead to significant risk underestimation.
The paper proves Lipschitz regularity of graph Laplacian eigenvectors on random data clouds.
problem Analyzing the regularity of solutions to graph Laplacian equations on random data points.
method Probabilistic coupling of random walks and interpolation method for point clouds to continuum.
result Graph Laplacian eigenvectors are essentially Lipschitz with constants depending on eigenvalues.
Software estimates inequality in random systems with changing communities.
problem Measuring inequality in systems with dynamic interactions and random attributes.
method Piecewise homogeneous Markov chain for changing points, copula function for multivariate distribution, Monte Carlo algorithm for entropy estimation.
result Estimates Random Theil's Entropy to measure inequality in random systems.
We study random knots, which we define as a triple of random periodic functions (where a random function is a random trigonometric series, \[f(θ) = \sum_{k=1}^\infty a_k \cos (k θ) +b_k (\sin k θ),\] with ak,bk are independent gaussian random variables with mean 0 and variance σ(k)2 - our results will depend …
New sampling bounds improve uniform coverage verification in machine learning.
problem Conservative bounds in classical coverage analyses at small failure probabilities.
method Variance-based analysis of uniform random sampling on a d-dimensional unit hypercube. result Sample complexity bound with logarithmic dependence on failure probability.
Random feature matrices' singular values concentrate near their full expectation in high dimensions.
problem Characterizing the spectra of random feature matrices for regression problems.
method Analyzing two settings of input variables (random or well-separated) with conditions on dimension, complexity ratio, and sampling variance.
result The singular values of random feature matrices concentrate near their full expectation and near one with high probability.
We prove semi-empirical concentration inequalities for random variables which are given as possibly nonlinear functions of independent random variables. These inequalities describe concentration of random variable in terms of the data/distribution-dependent Efron-Stein (ES) estimate of its variance and they do not requ…
Market-based asset price probability depends on trade volumes and values, improving forecasts and reliability.
problem Limited accuracy of frequency-based asset price statistical moments.
method Derive market-based variance and 3rd statistical moment from trade values and volumes, accounting for trade volume randomness.
result Market-based statistical moments improve price probability forecasts and reliability.
We systematically investigate the problem of representing Markov chains by families of random maps, and which regularity of these maps can be achieved depending on the properties of the probability measures. Our key idea is to use techniques from optimal transport to select optimal such maps. Optimal transport theory a…
In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations. Then, based on the stick-breaking construction of the Pitman-Yor process, we defin…
In this paper, we consider the problem of column subset selection. We present a novel analysis of the spectral norm reconstruction for a simple randomized algorithm and establish a new bound that depends explicitly on the sampling probabilities. The sampling dependent error bound (i) allows us to better understand the …
The paper provides bounds for LSA with fixed stepsizes under random estimates.
problem Analyzing the performance of LSA algorithms with fixed stepsize.
method Non-asymptotic analysis based on new results about matrix moments and high probability bounds.
result Derives high probability bounds on LSA performance under weaker conditions than previous works.
New theory extends rank-dependent utility for risk and ambiguity.
problem Modeling decision-making under risk and ambiguity.
method Axiomatizes a new preference relation with ambiguity index, probability weighting, and utility function.
result Extends rank-dependent utility to risk and ambiguity, reducing to existing models under specific conditions.
We present analytical investigations of a multiplicative stochastic process that models a simple investor dynamics in a random environment. The dynamics of the investor's budget, x(t), depends on the stochasticity of the return on investment, r(t), for which different model assumptions are discussed. The fat-tail d…
We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is intractable, we show how to compute upper and lower bounds on many probabilities of intere…
The paper analyzes ridge regression with random features for non-identically distributed data.
problem Analyzing ridge regression performance for data with heterogeneous variance profiles.
method Combining linear-plus-chaos approximation and operator-valued free probability.
result Derives asymptotic equivalents for training and test risks under non-identically distributed data.
Bayesian nonparametric approach for clustering non-exchangeable groups.
problem Clustering grouped data with dependencies among groups.
method Graphical Dirichlet process modeling with Markov property.
result Efficient posterior inference algorithm developed.
We study the systole of a random surface, where by a random surface we mean a surface constructed by randomly gluing together an even number of triangles. We study two types of metrics on these surfaces, the first one coming from using ideal hyperbolic triangles and the second one using triangles that carry a given Rie…