The study examines tail dependence between global economic uncertainty and BRICS currencies using high-frequency data.
problem Understanding the tail dependence between exchange rates and economic uncertainty.
method Daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates analyzed using time-varying copula framework.
result Indian, Russian, and South African currencies exhibit elliptical copulas, while Brazilian and Chinese currencies show upward trending tail dependence.
ARO overfits by making constraints dependent on uncertainty, leading to brittleness.
problem ARO's adaptive policies become brittle when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set.
method Assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes with probabilistic guarantees.
result Regularization through specific uncertainty set sizes ensures stability and flexibility.
Study on coskewness under varying dependence uncertainty.
problem Impact of dependence uncertainty on coskewness.
method Explicit bounds and numerical approximation for product expectation; introduction of standardized rank coskewness.
result Introduced standardized rank coskewness as a measure invariant under transformations.
The ACCRU framework improves probabilistic forecasts by capturing input-dependent uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic predictions, especially for skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
method Neural network trained with a loss function balancing accuracy and reliability to learn input-dependent, non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions.
result Improves probabilistic forecasts relative to existing methods, capturing skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
The paper evaluates joint life insurance risk under dependence uncertainty using copulas and convex risk measures.
problem Evaluating risk of joint life insurance products under uncertainty in dependence structure.
method Monotonicity of risk evaluation with concordance order, linear programming for bounds, and numerical analysis.
result Bounds for mean, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall computed using linear programs.
Study tail risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty.
problem Risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty and hidden dependence.
method Introduce hidden dependence, show compatibility with small perturbations, quantify portfolio risk.
result Small deviations in dependence structure can lead to significant risk underestimation.
Bayesian inference improves neural network predictions by separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of neural networks by quantifying and separating uncertainties.
method Approximated posterior distributions using deep ensembles for various neural network architectures.
result Prediction accuracy depends on both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, not just marginalized uncertainty.
CRC method provides tighter uncertainty intervals for CT images.
problem Expressing uncertainty in CT images in clinically meaningful terms.
method Semantically adaptive CRC procedure leveraging length minimization.
result Valid coverage of ground-truth images with tighter uncertainty intervals.
A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.
E-QRGMM accelerates uncertainty quantification in simulations.
problem Challenges in covariate-dependent uncertainty quantification.
method Integrates cubic Hermite interpolation with gradient estimation.
result Substantially improves computational efficiency and accuracy.
Study path-dependent affine models under uncertain parameters for financial applications.
problem Valuation of path-dependent financial derivatives under parameter uncertainty.
method Developed path-dependent setting for value function, established dynamic programming principle, approximated functional derivatives with neural networks.
result Efficient numerical methods for valuation of complex financial derivatives under parameter uncertainty.
Paper shows how to quantify uncertainty in medical ML models.
problem Uncertainty in opaque ML models can lead to safety risks in medical applications.
method Introduces Uncertainty Wrapper to quantify uncertainty transparently.
result Demonstrates practical utility of Uncertainty Wrapper in flow cytometry.
Extends Itô's formula for path-dependent functions in finance.
problem Modeling and hedging of path-dependent financial options.
method Functional extension of Itô's formula for C^{0,1}-functions of continuous weak Dirichlet processes.
result Validates the hedging or superhedging problems for path-dependent options.
Unified taxonomy for ML uncertainty in physics, validated.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for physics.
method Unified taxonomy, principled validation tools.
result Illustrated validation tools with examples.
The study improves Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.
problem Improving Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.
method Establishing scale-dependent Poincaré-Hardy type identities and choosing suitable parameters, potentials, and vector fields.
result Derives new versions and substantially improves existing inequalities.
The paper examines how small positive dependence can lead to correlated tail risks.
problem Understanding the impact of dependence uncertainty on tail risk measures.
method Introducing a regular dependence measure and analyzing the aggregation of risks.
result Small positive dependence can result in perfectly correlated tail risks.
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
problem Uncertainty in predicting macroeconomic variables like prices and returns.
method Defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on forecast accuracy based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Accuracy of forecasts of probabilities of macroeconomic variables doesn't exceed Gaussian approximations.
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
Hybrid model integrates GATv2 and geostatistics for better spatial prediction and uncertainty.
problem Accurate spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification in epidemiology and risk analysis.
method Integrates Graph Attention Network (GATv2) with model-based geostatistics (MBG) to capture relational and spatial dependencies.
result Hybrid model improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standalone models.
Paper proposes a new method to evaluate joint risk under uncertainty.
problem Evaluating joint risk of multiple insurance risks under dependence uncertainty.
method Axiomatic approach to scalar and vector-valued distortion joint risk measures.
result Established a new scalar distortion joint risk measure with positive homogeneity.
tsbootstrap handles time series uncertainty without assuming independence.
problem Time series data violate IID assumptions, leading to undercoverage in traditional methods.
method Provides various resampling and bootstrap methods, including classical and adaptive conformal calibration.
result Dependence-aware methods reduce coverage deficits, with sieve resampling performing best.
A new uncertainty principle helps traders better understand market activity.
problem Understanding high-frequency market activity and correlation.
method Integrates market activity, order-flow overlap, and response time into a clock-dependent uncertainty principle.
result Six rules of thumb for traders operating at market-making frequencies.
The paper decomposes probabilistic scores into reliability, uncertainty, and information loss.
problem Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of probabilistic predictions.
method Developed decomposition identities for proper losses, quantifying reliability, residual uncertainty, and information gain.
result A three-term identity for classification scores, revealing miscalibration, grouping term, and feature-level uncertainty.
The paper proposes a new method for modeling and quantifying uncertainty in multiple closed curves.
problem Modeling and uncertainty quantification of multiple closed curves.
method A multiple-output, multi-dimensional Gaussian process modeling framework.
result The proposed method provides meaningful uncertainty quantification for curve and shape-related tasks.
Surrogate models help predict complex systems with less computational cost.
problem Uncertainty in complex systems due to variability and external loads.
method Surrogate models trained on limited simulations to approximate full time-dependent response.
result Efficient surrogate models reduce computational expense for UQ in nonlinear dynamics.
Develops a framework to quantify uncertainties in multiple ML models.
problem Uncertainty in ML model predictions and model inputs.
method Develops a theoretical framework to decouple and transform uncertainties.
result Generates joint distribution of ML predictions considering uncertainties.
Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.
We give explicit solutions for utility maximization of terminal wealth problem u(XT) in the presence of Knightian uncertainty in continuous time [0,T] in a complete market. We assume there is uncertainty on both drift and volatility of the underlying stocks, which induce nonequivalent measures on canonical space o…
We construct a time-consistent sublinear expectation in the setting of volatility uncertainty. This mapping extends Peng's G-expectation by allowing the range of the volatility uncertainty to be stochastic. Our construction is purely probabilistic and based on an optimal control formulation with path-dependent control …
Cooperative model disentangles data uncertainties.
problem Disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real-world data.
method Cooperatively trains a variance estimation network with a Bayesian neural network.
result Improves mean estimation and disentangles uncertainties.
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
Improves inverse uncertainty quantification for time-dependent data using PCA and deep neural networks.
problem Efficiently quantify model input uncertainties from time-dependent experimental data.
method Functional PCA for dimensionality reduction, deep neural networks for surrogate modeling, Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty estimation.
result The proposed method reduces the computational cost and improves the agreement with experimental data.
DOS improves language model generation by considering inter-token dependencies.
problem Lack of sequence-level information and inter-token dependencies in existing decoding strategies.
method Dependency-Oriented Sampler (DOS) that uses attention matrices to approximate inter-token dependencies.
result DOS consistently achieves superior performance on code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks.
Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the data. Methods for estimating causal effects have been developed in the setting w…
Decision-calibrated prediction sets improve power system operations by reducing unnecessary costs.
problem Balancing operating costs and reliability in power systems with renewable uncertainty.
method Learn conditional prediction sets as sub-level sets of norm-based score functions, calibrate uncertainty sets based on reliability of downstream decisions.
result Decision-calibrated sets lead to more efficient operations with smaller uncertainty sets and lower costs compared to standard coverage-based calibration.
Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.
problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Differe…
Bayesian neural networks predict stress fields and uncertainty in materials.
problem Uncertainty in stress field predictions for complex materials.
method Modified Bayesian U-net architecture with three inference algorithms.
result High accuracy predictions and interpretable uncertainty estimates.
Proposes HetSNGP method for joint model and data uncertainty modeling.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for safety-critical applications.
method Jointly models model and data uncertainty with HetSNGP method.
result Outperforms baseline methods on challenging out-of-distribution datasets.
Framework for robust control under model uncertainty, improving financial derivatives hedging.
problem Model uncertainty in financial derivatives hedging.
method Dynamic programming principle for solving one-step optimization problems.
result Robust hedging strategy outperforms model-based strategies during adverse scenarios.
Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.
We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model is given by a set of possible mutually singular probability measures. With a single probability model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is a folk theorem,…
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
A new Thompson Sampling framework handles uncertainty by imputing missing data.
problem Handling uncertainty in contextual bandit problems.
method Generative model to impute missing outcomes, fit policy, and select actions.
result Established a state-of-the-art regret bound that depends on generative model quality.
The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.
problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.
New method assesses financial and cyber risks under uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in risk assessment for financial and cyber systems.
method Combines stochastic approximation and distorted mix method to compute worst case average value at risk.
result Efficient algorithm for tail uncertainty in multivariate distributions.
New fairness measures account for prediction uncertainties to detect bias.
problem Fairness of ML models is not well-defined and measures are limited.
method Introduce new fairness measures based on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Uncertainty-based measures reveal bias not captured by existing measures.