Deep RL agent secures 2nd place in CityLearn Challenge for district demand management.
problem Optimizing electrical demand of diverse buildings in a district.
method Centralised 'Soft Actor Critic' deep reinforcement learning agent.
result Achieved an averaged score of 0.967 on challenge dataset.
New algorithm controls large groups of devices to match energy demand signals.
problem Controlling large populations of electrical devices to match energy demand signals.
method Developed MD-MFC algorithm for finite horizon Markovian mean field control problem.
result MD-MFC provides theoretical guarantees for convex and Lipschitz objective functions.
We propose a contextual-bandit approach for demand side management by offering price incentives. More precisely, a target mean consumption is set at each round and the mean consumption is modeled as a complex function of the distribution of prices sent and of some contextual variables such as the temperature, weather, …
RL agent learns to save costs by managing household energy storage.
problem Maximizing cost savings in smart grids with household energy storage.
method Data-driven RL agent learns from tariff structures and storage capacity.
result RL agent explains its learning process and strategies.
Traditional centralized energy systems have the disadvantages of difficult management and insufficient incentives. Blockchain is an emerging technology, which can be utilized in energy systems to enhance their management and control. Integrating token economy and blockchain technology, token economic systems in energy …
Smart grid uses deep learning to optimize household energy use.
problem Optimizing household energy use under real-time pricing schemes.
method Multi-agent deep actor-critic learning for decentralized agents with partial observability.
result Deep reinforcement learning reduces peak-to-average energy consumption and costs.
Study compares forecasting methods for distribution grid loads.
problem Improving load prediction accuracy in distribution grids.
method Evaluation of probabilistic forecasting techniques on distribution grid load prediction.
result Hierarchical techniques enhance bottom-level forecast accuracy.
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
A new algorithm for competing agents in a two-sided market setting.
problem Decentralized competition between agents in a two-sided market with unknown valuations.
method UCB-D3 algorithm for UCB with Decentralized Dominant-arm Deletion.
result UCB-D3 is order optimal and achieves a new regret lower bound.
For power grid operations, a large body of research focuses on using generation redispatching, load shedding or demand side management flexibilities. However, a less costly and potentially more flexible option would be grid topology reconfiguration, as already partially exploited by Coreso (European RSC) and RTE (Frenc…
Bitcoin option prices reflect both market maker supply and trader demand, especially from those with insider information.
problem Understanding how market prices of bitcoin options are influenced by both market makers and informed traders.
method Analysis of Deribit options tick-level data to identify supply and demand effects.
result At-the-money option prices are driven by volatility traders, while out-of-the-money options are influenced by both volatility traders and those with insider information.
Real time bidding (RTB) enables demand side platforms (bidders) to scale ad campaigns across multiple publishers affiliated to an RTB ad exchange. While driving multiple campaigns for mobile app install ads via RTB, the bidder typically has to: (i) maintain each campaign's efficiency (i.e., meet advertiser's target cos…
Improved non-intrusive load monitoring with a novel neural network.
problem Accurately disaggregating household electricity consumption without dedicated meters.
method Developed a scale- and context-aware network with multi-scale features and contextual information.
result Significantly improved accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The paper proposes a new method to forecast winning prices in real-time bidding.
problem Accurately forecasting winning prices in real-time bidding with limited data.
method The paper introduces a heteroscedastic fully parametric censored regression approach and a mixture density censored network.
result The proposed method significantly improves winning price forecasting compared to existing methods.
Paper introduces Decentralized Non-stationary Competing Bandits ( exttt{DNCB}) for dynamic matching markets.
problem Understanding dynamic two-sided matching markets with competing agents.
method Proposes a decentralized asynchronous learning algorithm ( exttt{DNCB}) for non-stationary environments.
result Obtains sub-linear (logarithmic) regret of exttt{DNCB} in dynamic settings.
Paper optimizes demand aggregation for low-level electricity markets.
problem Accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels for market participants.
method Probabilistic portfolio optimization of residential households' demand using ARMA-GARCH models or KDE forecasts.
result Seasonal Residual approach outperforms others in accuracy and efficiency.
Most of the current game-theoretic demand-side management methods focus primarily on the scheduling of home appliances, and the related numerical experiments are analyzed under various scenarios to achieve the corresponding Nash-equilibrium (NE) and optimal results. However, not much work is conducted for academic or c…
New method learns interaction-aware orderbook representation for better intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Challenges in probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting due to dynamic orderbook microstructure.
method OrderFusion: an end-to-end and parameter-efficient probabilistic forecasting model that learns interaction-aware representation of buy-sell dynamics.
result Consistent improvements over conventional baselines in probabilistic forecasting of CID price indices.
In online display advertising, selecting the most effective ad creative (ad image) for each impression is a crucial task for DSPs (Demand-Side Platforms) to fulfill their goals (click-through rate, number of conversions, revenue, and brand improvement). As widely recognized in the marketing literature, the effect of ad…
CROCS clusters consumer behaviour from smart meters, capturing variability and robustness.
problem Insufficient consumer segmentation in existing clustering methods.
method Two-stage clustering framework: first stage clusters daily load profiles, second stage uses WSMD for set-to-set comparison.
result CROCS captures intra-consumer variability and robustness to anomalies and missing data.
A new microeconomic model is presented that aims at a description of the long-term unit sales and price evolution of homogeneous non-durable goods in polypoly markets. It merges the product lifecycle approach with the price dispersion dynamics of homogeneous goods. The model predicts a minimum critical lifetime of non-…
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function o…
This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamic filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependen…
This paper proposes a percolation-based model of new-product diffusion in the spirit of Solomon et al. (2000) and Goldenberg et al. (2000). A consumer buys the new product if she has formed her individual valuation of the product (reservation price) and if this valuation is greater or equal than the price of the produc…
Decentralized learning for matching markets with time-varying preferences.
problem Matching between competing agents and supply arms with time-varying preferences.
method Linear contextual bandit framework, learning algorithms to identify latent environment and stable matchings.
result Achieve instance-dependent logarithmic regret, applicable for large markets.
This paper explores portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta.
problem Maximizing returns while minimizing risk in investment portfolios.
method Examines asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management strategies.
result Combining these strategies optimizes portfolio performance.
In recent years, RTB(Real Time Bidding) becomes a popular online advertisement trading method. During the auction, each DSP(Demand Side Platform) is supposed to evaluate current opportunity and respond with an ad and corresponding bid price. It's essential for DSP to find an optimal ad selection and bid price determina…
Study proposes a machine learning method for bid shading in first-price auctions.
problem Maintaining strategy equilibrium in first-price auctions.
method Machine learning approach to model optimal bid shading.
result Demonstrates superiority and robustness of new approach across various metrics.
Paper introduces a framework for managing cyber risk with insurance and cybersecurity models.
problem Pervasive challenges in managing cyber risk, especially for capital allocation.
method Combines insurance frequency-severity models with cybersecurity cascade models for comprehensive cyber risk assessment. Facilitates informed capital allocation through a two-pillar framework.
result Demonstrates the necessity of comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for budget-constrained companies.
The basic financial purpose of a firm is to maximize its value. An inventory management system should also contribute to realization of this basic aim. Many current asset management models currently found in financial management literature were constructed with the assumption of book profit maximization as basic aim. H…
Study finds Indian mutual funds adjust cash holdings based on inflows, impacting stock purchases.
problem Active liquidity management by mutual funds in India.
method Examined cash holdings and stock purchases of Indian equity mutual funds.
result Funds with active liquidity choices outperform, highlighting the importance of this strategy.
Framework for managing cyber risks in networks.
problem Managing systemic cyber risks in digital networks.
method Three components: acceptable configurations, risk mitigation interventions, and cost function.
result Effective decision-making for network resilience.
Research identifies risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects.
problem Lack of awareness of project manager selection criteria and associated risks.
method Combined ANP-FMEA approach for risk analysis.
result ANP-FMEA model identifies more significant risks than traditional FMEA.
Deep learning improves portfolio management by optimizing asset weights.
problem Traditional portfolio managers are outperformed by deep learning models in trading.
method Proposes a deep reinforcement learning portfolio manager that allocates weights to assets.
result The proposed portfolio manager outperforms conventional managers in risk-adjusted returns.
This research develops a dynamic risk management system for industrial companies.
problem Risk assessment and management in industrial enterprises.
method Qualitative and quantitative analysis, systematic risk classification, dynamic system development.
result Effective risk management strategies formed through dynamic risk management system and risk assessment methods.
Study finds managers' tenure and education influence their choice between in-court and out-of-court restructuring.
problem Exploring managers' characteristics and their impact on restructuring decisions.
method Empirical investigation using upper echelons theory and data from 342 managers of French firms.
result Managers with longer tenure and higher education levels prefer private restructuring over court involvement.
The paper fits cash management models to data using stochastic and linear programming.
problem Cash flow probability distribution assumptions in cash management models are relaxed.
method Stochastic and linear programming to fit models to data.
result A small random sample of data is sufficient to fit bound-based models.
This paper analyzes Ethereum's gas fees and their derivatives, providing a comprehensive model.
problem Understanding and predicting gas fees on the Ethereum blockchain.
method Analyzed Ethereum's gas fee structure and used a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model gas prices.
result A model for pricing and trading gas fee derivatives to hedge against volatility.
Decision tool helps manage biofouling risks for ships in the Baltic Sea.
problem Biofouling of ships causes environmental and economic issues.
method Bayesian networks to identify biofouling management strategies.
result Optimal biofouling management includes biocidal-free coating and in-water cleaning.
Model cash management under ambiguity using maxmin preferences and diffusion.
problem Optimizing cash reserves in the presence of ambiguity.
method Singular control model with maxmin preferences, verified using Dynkin games.
result Higher expected costs and narrower inaction region under increased ambiguity.
Modeling reinsurance market, we find subgame perfect Nash equilibria.
problem Optimizing reinsurance market with multiple insurers and reinsurers.
method Sequential game with Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibria analysis.
result Characterized subgame perfect Nash equilibria in some market cases.
This review classifies electricity price models for risk management.
problem Choosing suitable models for risk management in electricity markets.
method Classification of models based on their ability to represent price behavior.
result Helps users select appropriate models for risk management.
Study improves machine learning for long-term financial portfolio management.
problem Machine learning precision declines with long-term data.
method Data augmentation using multiple time scales and learning data.
result Generalization performance can be maintained for long-term tasks.
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
problem Lack of risk management frameworks for stablecoins.
method Developed two risk metrics: capitalization and liquidity.
result Demonstrated practical benefits of real-time on-chain data.
Enhances portfolio management with RL, considering transaction costs and short selling.
problem Lack of practical aspects in RL for portfolio management.
method Proposes a general RL framework for asset management with continuous weights, short selling, and relevant features. Compares PGAC, PPO, and ES algorithms in a simulated environment with transaction costs.
result Demonstrates advantages of RL algorithms in real-life asset management scenarios.
The paper analyzes portfolio management in the Heston model, proposing new strategies.
problem Investment performance influenced by asset diversity and cash inclusion.
method Monte Carlo simulations in the Heston model, MACD and RSI technical analysis.
result New portfolio management strategies based on MACD and RSI.
A fund manager invests both the fund's assets and own private wealth in separate but potentially correlated risky assets, aiming to maximize expected utility from private wealth in the long run. If relative risk aversion and investment opportunities are constant, we find that the fund's portfolio depends only on the fu…
Paper discusses how financial institutions' model risk management can benefit academic research.
problem Improving academic research process and mitigating limitations.
method Adopting financial institutions' model risk management practices.
result Lessons from financial institutions can enhance academic research reliability.