A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
With developing of computation tools in the last years, data analysis methods to find insightful information are becoming more common among industries and researchers. This paper is the first part of the times series analysis of New England electricity price and demand to find anomaly in the data. In this paper time-se…
AI-enhanced product embeddings boost demand analysis accuracy.
Two neural network models analyze bus system efficiency and demand.
Study examines remittances in Nepal, linking external demand and domestic monetary conditions.
System uses TDA for user segmentation and demand forecasting.
Paper develops a fair pricing algorithm for dynamic settings with uncertain demand.
The study focuses on estimating and predicting time-varying origin to destination (OD) trip tables for a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model. A bi-level optimisation problem is formulated and solved to estimate OD flows from pre-existent demand matrix and historical traffic flow counts. The estimated demand is then …
Urban dispersal events are processes where an unusually large number of people leave the same area in a short period. Early prediction of dispersal events is important in mitigating congestion and safety risks and making better dispatching decisions for taxi and ride-sharing fleets. Existing work mostly focuses on pred…
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the fi…
Study optimal pricing and inventory control in dynamic settings with censored demand.
Study on inventory control with changing demand, proposing adaptive algorithms.
As Internet-based commerce becomes increasingly widespread, large data sets about the demand for and pricing of a wide variety of products become available. These present exciting new opportunities for empirical economic and business research, but also raise new statistical issues and challenges. In this article, we su…
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
Taxi demand prediction has recently attracted increasing research interest due to its huge potential application in large-scale intelligent transportation systems. However, most of the previous methods only considered the taxi demand prediction in origin regions, but neglected the modeling of the specific situation of …
Energy consumption in Ecuador has increased significantly during the last decades, affecting negatively the financial position of the country since large energy consumption subsidies are provided in its internal market and Ecuador is mostly a crude oil exporter and oil derivatives importer country. This research seeks …
Dynamic pricing aims to match power supply and demand in an energy transition.
The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.
This article presents a proof of the existence of Bertrand-Nash equilibrium prices with multi-product firms and under the Logit model of demand that does not rely on restrictive assumptions on product characteristics, firm homogeneity or symmetry, product costs, or linearity of the utility function. The proof is based …
We investigate how the local fluctuations of the signed traded volumes affect the dependence of demands between stocks. We analyze the empirical dependence of demands using copulas and show that they are well described by a bivariate copula density function. We find that large local fluctuations strongly …
Bayesian model predicts oncology demand trends with high accuracy.
Study examines how COVID-19 intensified demand variability in U.S. supply chains.
Inventory control with unknown demand distribution is considered, with emphasis placed on the case involving discrete nonperishable items. We focus on an adaptive policy which in every period uses, as much as possible, the optimal newsvendor ordering quantity for the empirical distribution learned up to that period. Th…
Study optimizes pricing under uncertainty and capacity constraints.
Paper combines RL with policy regularization for inventory policies.
Wavelet analysis reveals financialization effects on oil-food price correlation.
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
This paper compares AMMs and LOBs in exchange mechanisms, formalizing complexity vs. expressiveness trade-offs.
Optimal vehicle repositioning policy found for shared mobility services.
Meta-analysis finds people value insurance for low-probability risks more than expected.
Unified ML approach predicts ED attendances with high accuracy.
Optimal market making strategy with price forecasts reduces inventory costs and spreads.
Demand variance can result in a mismatch between planned supply and actual demand. Demand shaping strategies such as pricing can be used to shift elastic demand to reduce the imbalance. In this work, we propose to consider elastic demand in the forecasting phase. We present a method to reallocate the historical elastic…
In recent years, dock-less shared bikes have been widely spread across many cities in China and facilitate people's lives. However, at the same time, it also raises many problems about dock-less shared bike management due to the mismatching between demands and real distribution of bikes. Before deploying dock-less shar…
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
The paper proposes a new model to better estimate demand from censored data.
Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one -- in which case one says …
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
We introduce a mathematical model on the dynamics of demand and supply incorporating collectability and saturation factors. Our analysis shows that when the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, there is chaos in the demand-supply dynamics. Our numerical simulation shows that such a cha…
A framework for the generation of bridge-specific fragility utilizing the capabilities of machine learning and stripe-based approach is presented in this paper. The proposed methodology using random forests helps to generate or update fragility curves for a new set of input parameters with less computational effort and…
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
We consider a repeated newsvendor problem where the inventory manager has no prior information about the demand, and can access only censored/sales data. In analogy to multi-armed bandit problems, the manager needs to simultaneously "explore" and "exploit" with her inventory decisions, in order to minimize the cumulati…
Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a biased, or censored, version of the true underlying demand pattern. Without explicitly…
Study improves cross-modal bike-share and transit demand prediction.
Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even more important as cities continue to grow, causing water and electricity utiliti…
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
ODC protocol improves learning in asynchronous multi-agent bandits.