Private credit markets have expanded significantly, offering unique lending technology to private equity firms.
problem Understanding the growth and characteristics of private credit markets.
method Systematic survey of academic literature, development of integrated theoretical framework, empirical evidence.
result Private credit markets offer a distinct lending technology with higher spreads over syndicated loans.
Delegated votes in Uniswap DAO favor parties with less self-owned votes and a16z-affiliated entities.
problem Incentives for vote delegation in decentralized governance systems.
method Analysis of Uniswap governance DAO using vote delegation data.
result Vote delegation patterns suggest window-dressing around decentralization and merit-based delegation.
Most known regret bounds for reinforcement learning are either episodic or assume an environment without traps. We derive a regret bound without making either assumption, by allowing the algorithm to occasionally delegate an action to an external advisor. We thus arrive at a setting of active one-shot model-based reinf…
Forward hedging reshapes incentive provision in firms.
problem How does forward hedging affect incentive provision in firms?
method We consider a CARA framework to jointly characterize optimal production, compensation, and static hedging in equilibrium.
result Delegation and external hedging are partial substitutes, and delegation can increase firm value even when the agent is more risk averse.
Adaptive AI delegation framework for dynamic decision authority allocation.
problem Dynamic allocation of decision authority to AI-generated recommendations under evolving evidence quality and uncertainty.
method Formulated as a Governance-Aware POMDP, using Bayesian inference for informational state estimation and sequential optimization for authority allocation.
result Sequential Bayesian governance provides the strongest general-purpose policy across AI-quality regimes, adapting to evolving evidence.
We consider a general framework of optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity about the type distribution of agents. We prove the existence of optimal mechanisms under minimal assumptions on the contract space and prove that centralized contracting implemented via mechanisms is equivalent to delegat…
Optimal contracts help principals delegate data collection in decentralized ML.
problem Dealing with information asymmetries in decentralized ML.
method Design of optimal and near-optimal contracts addressing uncertainty in model quality and performance.
result Simple linear contracts achieve 1-1/e fraction of optimal utility.
Human-AI teaming suffers from calibration issues.
problem Human-AI teaming
method Assume calibrated models and humans
result Existing methods for combination do not preserve human's calibration.
A study on portfolio delegation with random default times, addressing complex uncertainties.
problem Optimal portfolio delegation with uncertain investment horizon due to random default.
method Developed a theoretical framework using BSDEs and control theory, and deep learning for high-dimensional problems.
result Solutions to integro-partial Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations for both scenarios of default time.
Unlike other industries in which intellectual property is patentable, the financial industry relies on trade secrecy to protect its business processes and methods, which can obscure critical financial risk exposures from regulators and the public. We develop methods for sharing and aggregating such risk exposures that …
Study on limits of LLM-based multi-agent planning reliability.
problem Reliability limits of LLM-based multi-agent planning.
method Modeling LLM-based multi-agent architecture as a decision network, showing dominance by centralized Bayes decision maker.
result Optimizing multi-agent directed acyclic graphs under communication budget is equivalent to choosing a constrained experiment.
AI task delegation faces incentive collapse with unbounded payments as AI accuracy rises.
problem Incentive collapse in AI-assisted task delegation schemes.
method General impossibility result and sentinel-auditing payment mechanism.
result Sentinel-auditing mechanism enforces positive human effort at finite cost, independent of AI accuracy.
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
Paper characterizes star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
problem Characterizing risk measures in the presence of liquidity risk and competitive delegation.
method Characterization of star-shaped risk measures, study of their properties.
result Star-shaped risk measures include all practically used risk measures.
We analyze and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e., sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic and unconditional strategies) and compare them between each other and with the u…
As Machine Learning (ML) gets applied to security-critical or sensitive domains, there is a growing need for integrity and privacy for outsourced ML computations. A pragmatic solution comes from Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs), which use hardware and software protections to isolate sensitive computations from the…
We analyze conditional optimization problems arising in discrete time Principal-Agent problems of delegated portfolio optimization with linear contracts. Applying tools from Conditional Analysis we show that some results known in the literature for very specific instances of the problem carry over to translation invari…
We propose a Monte Carlo simulation method to generate stress tests by VaR scenarios under Solvency II for dependent risks on the basis of observed data. This is of particular interest for the construction of Internal Models and requirements on evaluation processes formulated in the Commission Delegated Regulation. The…
AI systems that explain their decisions can be monitored for harmful intentions.
problem Monitoring AI systems' decision-making processes for harmful intentions is imperfect and can miss some misbehavior.
method Monitoring the chain of thought (CoT) of AI systems that communicate in human language.
result CoT monitoring is a promising but fragile approach to AI safety.
Simple online monitor detects unsafe LLM outputs.
problem LLMs generate unsafe outputs despite training.
method Thresholding external verifier signal to decide alarms.
result Simple design competitive with advanced methods.
This research tackles monitoring machine learning algorithms post-deployment, addressing performativity issues.
problem Monitoring machine learning algorithms after deployment, especially when they affect their own data-generating process.
method Uses causal inference techniques to navigate performativity and compares different monitoring criteria and data sources.
result Different monitoring systems have varying operating characteristics and implications for ML monitoring design.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
PITMonitor monitors model calibration over time with formal error guarantees.
problem Fixed-sample tests applied to models over time can lead to false alarms.
method PITMonitor uses mixture e-processes to detect distributional shifts in probability integral transforms.
result PITMonitor achieves competitive detection rates on river's FriedmanDrift benchmark.
The paper adds explanation to predictive process monitoring.
problem Equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities.
method Used game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations.
result First time explanations given in predictive business process monitoring.
IDS algorithm optimizes sequential decisions in various monitoring settings.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions in complex monitoring scenarios.
method Information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm for linear partial monitoring.
result IDS achieves nearly worst-case rate optimality in finite-action games.
A new method monitors unstructured 3D shapes without registration.
problem Error-prone registration and mesh reconstruction steps in PCD monitoring.
method Intrinsic geometric properties of shapes, using Laplacian and geodesic distances.
result Effective monitoring of defects without registration and mesh reconstruction.
Focuses on monitoring and explaining models in real-world applications.
problem Ensuring high quality machine learning services in production environments.
method Statistical techniques for model performance and data monitoring, explanations of predictions.
result Challenges and solutions for implementing monitoring and explanation in production models.
Neural system optimizes glucose levels in diabetics.
problem Limited research on continuous glucose maintenance devices.
method Differential predictive control with neural policy and differentiable modeling.
result Improves glucose level optimization in real-time.
We present a numerical scheme to calculate fluctuation identities for exponential Lévy processes in the continuous monitoring case. This includes the Spitzer identities for touching a single upper or lower barrier, and the more difficult case of the two-barriers exit problem. These identities are given in the Fourier-L…
Optimal probing framework for scalable network monitoring.
problem Efficiently monitor growing cloud networks with limited budgets.
method A- and E-optimal experimental designs, Frank-Wolfe algorithm approximations.
result Significant reduction in probing budget with low estimation errors.
The paper proposes a method to create efficient remote monitoring models.
problem Large and complex machine learning models are unsuitable for remote monitoring on edge devices.
method Decompose the model into a simple local monitoring function and a complex correction term evaluated on the server.
result The proposed framework learns monitoring models with significantly reduced complexity that maintain safety.
New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.
problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.
Emerging wearable sensors have enabled the unprecedented ability to continuously monitor human activities for healthcare purposes. However, with so many ambient sensors collecting different measurements, it becomes important not only to maintain good monitoring accuracy, but also low power consumption to ensure sustain…
Risk monitoring detects when TTA models degrade at test time.
problem Detecting when TTA models degrade at test time.
method Extended risk monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of TTA monitoring framework across various datasets and methods.
Paper optimizes a big data and ML risk monitoring system for financial markets.
problem Traditional risk monitoring methods are inadequate for modern financial markets due to data complexity and volume.
method Four-layer architecture integrating big data and advanced ML algorithms (LSTM, RF, GB).
result Significantly enhances efficiency and accuracy in risk management, especially in market crash risk detection.
For using neural networks in safety critical domains, it is important to know if a decision made by a neural network is supported by prior similarities in training. We propose runtime neuron activation pattern monitoring - after the standard training process, one creates a monitor by feeding the training data to the ne…
The significance of air pollution and the problems associated with it are fueling deployments of air quality monitoring stations worldwide. The most common approach for air quality monitoring is to rely on environmental monitoring stations, which unfortunately are very expensive both to acquire and to maintain. Hence e…
Structural health monitoring is a condition-based field of study utilised to monitor infrastructure, via sensing systems. It is therefore used in the field of aerospace engineering to assist in monitoring the health of aerospace structures. A difficulty however is that in structural health monitoring the data input is …
A monitoring procedure improves machine learning forecasts for digital platforms.
problem Maintaining accurate and stable forecasts for data streams at digital platforms.
method Developed a monitoring procedure to determine when to retrain machine learning algorithms.
result Monitor-based retraining produces accurate forecasts compared to benchmarks.
Novel framework monitors cardiac image segmentation models in real-time.
problem Ensuring continuous high model performance and segmentation results in clinics.
method Formulated as anomaly detection, the framework derives surrogate quality measures for segmentation.
result Demonstrated accurate, fast, and scalable quality control monitoring.
New Thompson sampling algorithm for stochastic partial monitoring achieves logarithmic regret.
problem Limited feedback in sequential learning problems.
method Developed a novel Thompson-sampling-based algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution exactly.
result Achieved logarithmic regret bound of O(log T) for a linearized variant of the problem.
Paper monitors DNN accuracy to enhance trustworthiness.
problem Varying DNN accuracy in practice and lack of ground truth labels.
method Post-hoc accuracy monitor model using Monte-Carlo dropout ensemble.
result Accuracy monitor provides close-to-true accuracy estimation.
Proposes real-time risk monitoring for machine learning systems under unknown shifts.
problem Dynamic distribution shifts challenge real-world machine learning systems' risk assurances.
method Sequential hypothesis testing with 'testing by betting' to detect risk violations.
result Effective real-time risk monitoring under various unknown shifts.
A registration-free framework monitors shape and color in 4D point clouds.
problem Monitoring shape and color changes in complex parts without registration.
method Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties for geometric and color feature capture; combined monitoring scheme for shape and color anomalies.
result Effective detection of shape deformations and color anomalies without registration or mesh reconstruction.
IDS optimizes regret in stochastic partial monitoring with linear rewards.
problem Optimizing decision-making in uncertain environments with linear rewards.
method Information Directed Sampling (IDS) for stochastic partial monitoring.
result Achieves optimal regret rates in all observable game regimes.
Amazon SageMaker Model Monitor detects drift in deployed ML models.
problem Ensuring high performance of ML models in production environments.
method Automatically detects data, concept, bias, and feature attribution drift in real-time.
result Maintains high quality models by providing alerts and corrective actions.
Study nonconcave portfolio choice with smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
problem Nonconcave portfolio choice under smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
method Developed a general framework for dynamic, non-concave asset allocation.
result Dynamic consistency achieved through a robust representation.
IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.
problem Gradual distribution shifts lead to unnoticed accuracy declines in machine learning models.
method Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM) using optimal transport and active labeling.
result IUPM outperforms existing baselines in gradual shift scenarios and guides label acquisition more effectively.