arXiv research

We propose a novel credit default model that takes into account the impact of macroeconomic information and contagion effect on the defaults of obligors. We use a set-valued Markov chain to model the default process, which is the set of all defaulted obligors in the group. We obtain analytic characterizations for the d…

We discuss the pricing of defaultable assets in an incomplete information model where the default time is given by a first hitting time of an unobservable process. We show that in a fairly general Markov setting, the indicator function of the default has an absolutely continuous compensator. Given this compensator we t…

Study shows leaving some hyperparameters at default can outperform tuning them.

Study connects bank default models using dynamic contagion.

Extends XVA valuation under stochastic volatility, characterizing value processes via mild solutions.

Filiz et al. (2008) proposed a model for the pattern of defaults seen among a group of firms at the end of a given time period. The ingredients in the model are a graph, where the vertices correspond to the firms and the edges describe the network of interdependencies between the firms, a parameter for each vertex that…

The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.

Proposes a low-cost method to set hyperparameters using optimized default values.

In this paper we are concerned with backward stochastic differential equations with random default time and their applications to default risk. The equations are driven by Brownian motion as well as a mutually independent martingale appearing in a defaultable setting. We show that these equations have unique solutions …

We study multiple defaults where the global market information is modelled as progressive enlargement of filtrations. We shall provide a general pricing formula by establishing a relationship between the enlarged filtration and the reference default-free filtration in the random measure framework. On each default scena…

To construct a no-arbitrage defaultable bond market, we work on the state price density framework. Using the heat kernel approach (HKA for short) with the killing of a Markov process, we construct a single defaultable bond market that enables an explicit expression of a defaultable bond and credit spread under quadrati…

We demonstrate that, for a range of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, the differences in generalisation performance obtained using default parameter settings and using parameters tuned via cross-validation can be similar in magnitude to the differences in performance observed between state-of-the-art and un…

The paper values and hedges EPS products with jumps and default risks.

Paper calculates loan loss after default using Bayesian model.

Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem, evaluating the uncertainties associated with the default predictions remains littl…

The paper analyzes Lending Club's loan applicants to predict default risk.

Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the difference between the value of the default-free and credit-risky derivative portfolio, which can be regarded as the cost of the credit hedge. Default probabilities are therefore needed, as input parameters to the valuation. When liquid CDS are available, then implied probabilities …

Study on sequential defaulting in financial networks, analyzing stability and optimal timing.

We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise …

Default risk significantly affects the corporate policies of a firm. We develop a model in which a limited liability entity subject to Poisson default shock jointly sets its dividend policy and capital structure to maximize the expected lifetime utility from consumption of risk averse equity investors. We give a comple…

Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of issued loans. A two phase model is proposed; the first phase predicts loan rejection,…

Revisits Jarrow & Turnbull model for credit and liquidity risk.

The performance of modern machine learning methods highly depends on their hyperparameter configurations. One simple way of selecting a configuration is to use default settings, often proposed along with the publication and implementation of a new algorithm. Those default values are usually chosen in an ad-hoc manner t…

We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…

Meta-learning symbolic default hyperparameters from dataset properties.

In this paper, we study a continuous time structural asset value model for two correlated firms using a two-dimensional Brownian motion. We consider the situation of incomplete information, where the information set available to the market participants includes the default time of each firm and the periodic asset value…

During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that defaul…

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes…

The paper analyzes financial networks with default charges and defines a model using fixpoint problems.

FSL-BDP models time-to-default without centralizing data, improving privacy mechanisms in federated settings.

A market with defaultable bonds where the bond dynamics is in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton setting and the forward rates are driven by an infinite number of Levy factors is considered. The setting includes rating migrations driven by a Markov chain. All basic types of recovery are investigated. We formulate necessary and suff…

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on a reference entity may be traded in multiple currencies, in that protection upon default may be offered either in the domestic currency where the entity resides, or in a more liquid and global foreign currency. In this situation currency fluctuations clearly introduce a source of risk on C…

Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.

The paper examines clearing payments in financial networks to prevent cascaded defaults.

We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based on a contingent-claims analysis of corporate capital structure, is easily calib…

This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolio, which is introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. As inhomogeneous portfolios, we consider two cases. In the first case, we treat a portfolio whose assets have uniform default cor…

PD curve calibration refers to the transformation of a set of rating grade level probabilities of default (PDs) to another average PD level that is determined by a change of the underlying portfolio-wide PD. This paper presents a framework that allows to explore a variety of calibration approaches and the conditions un…

We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is influenced by an idiosyncratic risk process, a systematic risk process common to…

This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Under fairly general assumptions for the distribution of the total net assets of a set of firms we show that retaining the first few moments of the por…

In a simplified setting, we show how to price invoice non-recourse factoring taking into account not only the credit worthiness of the debtor but also the assignor's one, together with the default correlation between the two. Indeed, the possible default of the assignor might impact the payoff by means of the bankruptc…

We find approximate solutions of partial integro-differential equations, which arise in financial models when defaultable assets are described by general scalar Lévy-type stochastic processes. We derive rigorous error bounds for the approximate solutions. We also provide numerical examples illustrating the usefulness a…

Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.

We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events accounting for correlations between the default events and the associated losses. We…

The paper shows how to calculate risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask CDS quotes.

Paper simplifies default process modeling and credit valuation.

Optimal credit and consumption strategies in a switching market with default contagion.

Paper proposes a framework for precise daily default risk prediction of Chinese credit bonds.

We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for the Fisher information matrix, reducing the computational time needed for the Wald…