A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new attack for probabilistic classifiers adapts to noise levels.
LSDAT reduces query efficiency for decision-based adversarial attacks.
Deep neural networks have recently achieved tremendous success in image classification. Recent studies have however shown that they are easily misled into incorrect classification decisions by adversarial examples. Adversaries can even craft attacks by querying the model in black-box settings, where no information abou…
New attacks reveal membership in label-only ML models.
Adversarial example generation becomes a viable method for evaluating the robustness of a machine learning model. In this paper, we consider hard-label black-box attacks (a.k.a. decision-based attacks), which is a challenging setting that generates adversarial examples based on only a series of black-box hard-label que…
The goal of a decision-based adversarial attack on a trained model is to generate adversarial examples based solely on observing output labels returned by the targeted model. We develop HopSkipJumpAttack, a family of algorithms based on a novel estimate of the gradient direction using binary information at the decision…
Many machine learning algorithms are vulnerable to almost imperceptible perturbations of their inputs. So far it was unclear how much risk adversarial perturbations carry for the safety of real-world machine learning applications because most methods used to generate such perturbations rely either on detailed model inf…
New attacks reduce bad queries in black-box classifiers, improving effectiveness.
We consider portfolio selection when decisions based on a dynamic risk measure are affected by the use of a moving horizon, and the possible inconsistencies that this creates. By giving a formal treatment of time consistency which is independent of Bellman's equations, we show that there is a new sense in which these d…
We consider the problem of efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning. In order to efficiently and meaningfully utilize new data, we propose to explicitly assign credit to past decisions based on the likelihood of them having led to the observed outcome. This approach uses new information in hindsight, rathe…
Bayesian VAR and Elliptical Black-Litterman models improve portfolio optimization during regime changes and heavy-tailed returns.
Paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to predict retirement portfolios.
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task i…
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
We demonstrate an application of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning to optimizing execution in limit order book markets. We represent taking order execution decisions based on limit order book knowledge by a Markov Decision Process; and train a trading agent in a market simulator, which emulates multi-agent interact…
In this work, we aim to gain a better understanding of the volatility smile observed in options markets through microsimulation (MS). We adopt two types of active traders in our MS model: speculators and arbitrageurs, and call and put options on one underlying asset. Speculators make decisions based on their expectatio…
In this paper, we investigate an optimal investment and consumption problem for an investor who trades in a Black--Scholes financial market with stochastic coefficients driven by a non-Gaussian Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. We assume that an agent makes investment and consumption decisions based on a power utility funct…
Decision trees have been a very popular class of predictive models for decades due to their interpretability and good performance on categorical features. However, they are not always robust and tend to overfit the data. Additionally, if allowed to grow large, they lose interpretability. In this paper, we present a mix…
We summarize the potential impact that the European Union's new General Data Protection Regulation will have on the routine use of machine learning algorithms. Slated to take effect as law across the EU in 2018, it will restrict automated individual decision-making (that is, algorithms that make decisions based on user…
Commentary on Rashomon Effect complicating model selection.
We introduce a reinforcement learning framework for retail robo-advising. The robo-advisor does not know the investor's risk preference, but learns it over time by observing her portfolio choices in different market environments. We develop an exploration-exploitation algorithm which trades off costly solicitations of …
We propose an online method for concept driftdetection based on dynamic classifier ensemble selection. Theproposed method generates a pool of ensembles by promotingdiversity among classifier members and chooses expert ensemblesaccording to global prequential accuracy values. Unlike currentdynamic ensemble selection app…
We propose a new model of minority game with so-called smart agents such that the standard deviation and the total loss in this model reach the theoretical minimum values in the limit of long time. The smart agents use trail and error method to make a choice but bring global optimization to the system, which suggests t…
New welfare-based fairness notions align with existing error rate balance and predictive parity.
We propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for German quarter-hourly electricity spot markets. While the literature is diverse on day-ahead prediction approaches, both the intraday continuous and intraday call-auction prices have not been studied intensively with a clear focus on predictive power. …
We discuss how minimal financial market models can be constructed by bridging the gap between two existing, but incomplete, market models: a model in which a population of virtual traders make decisions based on common global information but lack local information from their social network, and a model in which the tra…
We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic coefficients driven by a diffusion process. We assume that an agent makes consumption and investment decisions based on CRRA utility functions. The dynamical programming approach leads to an investigation of t…
Recent work has shown that state-of-the-art classifiers are quite brittle, in the sense that a small adversarial change of an originally with high confidence correctly classified input leads to a wrong classification again with high confidence. This raises concerns that such classifiers are vulnerable to attacks and ca…
MaxCOSD algorithm tackles non-i.i.d. demands and stateful dynamics in online inventory control.
A novel framework combines LLMs and RL for financial portfolio optimization.
Paper presents a hybrid framework combining sentiment analysis and market indicators for financial portfolio optimization.
Our goal is to build robust optimization problems for making decisions based on complex data from the past. In robust optimization (RO) generally, the goal is to create a policy for decision-making that is robust to our uncertainty about the future. In particular, we want our policy to best handle the the worst possibl…
Strong regulations in the financial industry mean that any decisions based on machine learning need to be explained. This precludes the use of powerful supervised techniques such as neural networks. In this study we propose a new unsupervised and semi-supervised technique known as the topological hierarchical decomposi…
We consider adversarial examples for image classification in the black-box decision-based setting. Here, an attacker cannot access confidence scores, but only the final label. Most attacks for this scenario are either unreliable or inefficient. Focusing on the latter, we show that a specific class of attacks, Boundary …
MPHD transfers knowledge across different domains for Bayesian optimization.
Stock correlations is crucial to asset pricing, investor decision-making, and financial risk regulations. However, microscopic explanation based on agent-based modeling is still lacking. We here propose a model derived from minority game for modeling stock correlations, in which an agent's expected return for one stock…
RL optimizes resource allocation in MG by balancing experience and exploration.
Cash managers make daily decisions based on predicted monetary inflows from debtors and outflows to creditors. Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flow include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set from…
In online portfolio optimization the investor makes decisions based on new, continuously incoming information on financial assets (typically their prices). In our study we consider a learning algorithm, namely the Kiefer--Wolfowitz version of the Stochastic Gradient method, that converges to the log-optimal solution in…
We consider a framework involving behavioral economics and machine learning. Rationally inattentive Bayesian agents make decisions based on their posterior distribution, utility function and information acquisition cost Renyi divergence which generalizes Shannon mutual information). By observing these decisions, how ca…
Game theory finds nowadays a broad range of applications in engineering and machine learning. However, in a derivative-free, expensive black-box context, very few algorithmic solutions are available to find game equilibria. Here, we propose a novel Gaussian-process based approach for solving games in this context. We f…
We address challenges in collaborative black-box optimization through three frameworks.
Making the right decision in traffic is a challenging task that is highly dependent on individual preferences as well as the surrounding environment. Therefore it is hard to model solely based on expert knowledge. In this work we use Deep Reinforcement Learning to learn maneuver decisions based on a compact semantic st…
Optimal treatment regime uses proxy variables to improve decision-making.
Ideal attribution mechanisms track model interactions for faithful watermarks.
The paper examines how calibration affects the interpretability of ML models in diabetes screening.
Solves the Sleeping Beauty problem as a 'thirder' using the Kelly Criterion.
Develops a statistical test for IV, improving feature selection reliability.