Decision-alignment evaluates uncertainty quantification for decision-relevant UQ
problem Evaluation of uncertainty quantification metrics
method Introduce decision-alignment
result Proper scoring rules align with decision utility
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48 results for “decision utility”
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task i…
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
Utility-Weighted Forecasting and Calibration for Risk-Adjusted Decisions under Trading Frictionsecon.EM
The paper optimizes forecasting for risk-adjusted decisions under trading frictions.
problem Optimizing forecasting accuracy for investment decisions in the presence of transaction costs.
method Develops a utility-weighted calibration criterion to minimize decision loss net of costs.
result Utility-weighted calibration reduces decision loss by over 30% and improves Sharpe ratio.
Formalizes vNM utility theorem using Lean 4, proving existence and uniqueness.
problem Formalizing and proving the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem.
method Implement classical axioms in Lean 4, formalizing preference relations over lotteries.
result Machine-verified proofs of existence and uniqueness of utility representations.
The maximum entropy principle can be used to assign utility values when only partial information is available about the decision maker's preferences. In order to obtain such utility values it is necessary to establish an analogy between probability and utility through the notion of a utility density function. According…
Loss-calibrated EP improves Bayesian decision-making by focusing on utility-sensitive posterior approximations.
problem Bayesian decision-making under asymmetric utility functions.
method Loss-calibrated expectation propagation (Loss-EP) that tilts the posterior towards higher utility decisions.
result Loss-EP can capture useful information for decision-making under asymmetric penalties.
Quantum decision making by social agentsphysics.soc-ph
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalizat…
Paper tackles non-monotonic resource utilization in sequential decision-making.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with resource constraints.
method Introduces a new MDP policy with constant regret against LP relaxation.
result Develops a learning algorithm with logarithmic regret for unknown outcome distributions.
Bayesian method helps decision-makers find preferred solutions in multi-objective optimization.
problem Identifying preferred solutions from the Pareto set in multi-objective optimization problems.
method Bayesian model to estimate decision-maker's utility function based on pairwise comparisons, guided by a principled elicitation strategy.
result Superior performance in finding high-utility solutions with a small number of queries.
New theory extends rank-dependent utility for risk and ambiguity.
problem Modeling decision-making under risk and ambiguity.
method Axiomatizes a new preference relation with ambiguity index, probability weighting, and utility function.
result Extends rank-dependent utility to risk and ambiguity, reducing to existing models under specific conditions.
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
Right Decisions from Wrong Predictions: A Mechanism Design Alternative to Individual Calibrationstat.ML
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
problem Difficult to assess the quality of individual probabilistic forecasts and their utilities.
method Compensation mechanism based on fair bets and online learning.
result The proposed mechanism cannot be exploited and ensures forecasted utility matches actual utility.
Study optimal investment decisions for diverse risk-tolerant agents.
problem Optimizing investment choices for agents with varying risk preferences.
method Characterizes optimal behavior using certainty equivalents and lognormal risks.
result Derives optimal decision menus under known and uncertain preference distributions.
Study shows bifurcation in optimal retirement planning.
problem Optimal consumption and retirement planning model.
method Cobb-Douglas utility, simple model with wealth bifurcation.
result Critical wealth level leads to a continuum of retirement trajectories.
Develops optimal uncertainty quantification for risk-averse decision makers.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty for risk-sensitive domains.
method Decision-theoretic foundations connecting uncertainty quantification with risk-averse decision-making.
result Risk-Averse Calibration (RAC) algorithm provides optimal prediction sets for risk-averse decision makers.
Optimizes football play calls using reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing game outcomes with limited data.
method Reinforcement learning to optimize decision-making.
result Optimized play calls lead to better game outcomes.
Entropy-Norm space for geometric selection of strict Nash equilibria in n-person gamesphysics.soc-ph
Proposes a new criterion for selecting Nash equilibria considering both utility and inequality.
problem Finding a fair Nash equilibrium in group decision-making.
method Introduces entropy-norm space for geometric selection of strict Nash equilibria.
result The closest entropy-norm pair to the largest entropy-norm pair in rescaled space is the most suitable equilibrium.
The paper calculates the value of information in high-dimensional decision making.
problem Determining the value of acquiring new information in high-dimensional decision problems.
method Using tools from sub-Gaussian processes and generic chaining for asymptotic analysis.
result Asymptotic results on the expected value of information as dimensionality increases.
The paper corrects Bayesian neural network approximations to improve decision quality.
problem Inaccurate posterior approximations in Bayesian neural networks lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Develops methods to calibrate approximate posterior predictive distributions for better decision making.
result Empirically produces higher quality decisions compared to previous methods.
New approach for learning with unknown utilities without explicit specification.
problem Learning with unknown and context-dependent utility functions.
method Agnostic learning with unknown utilities, using k-comparison oracle.
result Learning a decision function with small excess risk using sampled data and k-comparison oracle.
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
Advances in mobile computing technologies have made it possible to monitor and apply data-driven interventions across complex systems in real time. Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the primary model for sequential decision problems with a large or indefinite time horizon. Choosing a representation of the underlying…
Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
problem Understanding and optimizing behavior in complex systems.
method Combines Bayesian decision theory, optimal Bayesian design, and the free energy principle.
result Active inference emerges as a unified framework for information-seeking, utility maximization, and goal-directed behavior.
Consequential decisions are increasingly informed by sophisticated data-driven predictive models. However, to consistently learn accurate predictive models, one needs access to ground truth labels. Unfortunately, in practice, labels may only exist conditional on certain decisions---if a loan is denied, there is not eve…
We consider a framework involving behavioral economics and machine learning. Rationally inattentive Bayesian agents make decisions based on their posterior distribution, utility function and information acquisition cost Renyi divergence which generalizes Shannon mutual information). By observing these decisions, how ca…
Develops optimal decision-making framework for uncertain counterfactuals.
problem Ensuring reliability of predictions in high-stakes decisions.
method Policy-Coupled Risk-Averse Conformal Prediction (PC-RACP).
result Optimal prediction sets for counterfactual decisions with valid coverage.
Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e. decision-makers are bounded in their rationality. Here we experimentally tested the predic…
Investigates optimal life insurance and annuity decisions in inflationary economies.
problem Optimal consumption and investment decisions in an inflationary economy with money illusion.
method Formulated as a random horizon utility maximization problem, derived optimal strategy.
result Money illusion increases life insurance demand for young adults and reduces annuity demand for retirees.
Consider an agent taking two successive decisions to maximize his expected utility under uncertainty. After his first decision, a signal is revealed that provides information about the state of nature. The observation of the signal allows the decision-maker to revise his prior and the second decision is taken according…
A new method calculates optimal decisions from classifier outputs, improving predictions in drug discovery.
problem Finding optimal decisions from classifier outputs in fields like medicine.
method Develops a transducer that calculates probabilities from classifier outputs, enabling expected-utility maximization.
result Improves prediction accuracy in drug discovery problems, sometimes close to theoretical maximum.
In the Bayesian approach to sequential decision making, exact calculation of the (subjective) utility is intractable. This extends to most special cases of interest, such as reinforcement learning problems. While utility bounds are known to exist for this problem, so far none of them were particularly tight. In this pa…
Paper formalizes Simon's satisficing through FFSD, proving its equivalence to expected utility theory.
problem Formalizing Herbert Simon's bounded rationality concept in economic decision-making.
method Developed FFSD framework using Lean 4 theorem prover, proving equivalence to expected utility theory.
result Equivalence theorem linking FFSD to expected utility maximization for approximate indicator functions.
We provide a general theoretical analysis of expected out-of-sample utility, also referred to as decision-theoretic classification, for non-decomposable binary classification metrics such as F-measure and Jaccard coefficient. Our key result is that the expected out-of-sample utility for many performance metrics is prov…
New insights into risk aversion for complex decision models.
problem Understanding risk aversion in non-monotone decision models.
method Characterization of probabilistic risk aversion for generalized rank-dependent functions.
result Probabilistic risk aversion is determined by the distortion function, which is convex or scaled quantile-spread mixtures.
Tutorials on preference learning with Gaussian Processes.
problem Understanding individual preferences and choices for efficient and personalized applications.
method Presentation of a comprehensive framework for preference learning with Gaussian Processes, incorporating rationality principles.
result Construction of preference learning models that encompass various utility models and scenarios.
Study shows risk-averse investors have consistent ranking of risky assets.
problem Ranking of risky assets in short-term investments.
method Analyzes various decision problems regarding risky assets with continuous returns.
result Risk-averse decision makers have the same ranking over risky assets.
We are witnessing an increasing use of data-driven predictive models to inform decisions. As decisions have implications for individuals and society, there is increasing pressure on decision makers to be transparent about their decision policies. At the same time, individuals may use knowledge, gained by transparency, …
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
problem Understanding how people make decisions with uncertain timing of payments.
method Normative model of growth-optimality, revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries.
result Growth-optimality better explains experimental data on time lotteries than expected discounted utility theory.
New approach to disentangle utility from impulse in recommendation systems.
problem Difficulty in inferring user utility from engagement signals.
method Generative model based on self-exciting Hawkes process to infer utility from return probability.
result It is possible to disentangle System-1 and System-2 decision processes to optimize content based on user utility.
Study optimal investment and consumption in incomplete markets with nonlinear expectations.
problem Utility maximization in incomplete markets with general constraints.
method Utilizes -martingale method to solve optimization problem for various utility functions.
result Characterizes optimal investment-consumption strategy through quadratic BSDE solutions.
qEUBO optimizes decision-making with noisy feedback.
problem Optimizing decision-making with noisy preference feedback.
method Introduces qEUBO as a novel acquisition function for preferential Bayesian optimization.
result qEUBO is one-step Bayes optimal and enjoys an approximation guarantee under noise.
The paper addresses decision making with partially calibrated forecasts, offering a robust approach.
problem Developing a decision-making strategy for forecasts that are only partially calibrated.
method A minimax approach to mapping predictions to actions, considering worst-case distributions.
result The minimax optimal decision rule is to trust predictions and act accordingly, even for partially calibrated forecasts.
Modeling driver trajectories using inverse reinforcement learning and random utility.
problem Modeling rational driver behavior in road networks from sparse sensor data.
method Apply random utility theory to model unknown reward function, introduce extended state, and use Markov decision process.
result Maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning is a special case of the proposed approach.
In this paper, we introduce the problem of decision-oriented communications, that is, the goal of the source is to send the right amount of information in order for the intended destination to execute a task. More specifically, we restrict our attention to how the source should quantize information so that the destinat…
Enforcing safety is a key aspect of many problems pertaining to sequential decision making under uncertainty, which require the decisions made at every step to be both informative of the optimal decision and also safe. For example, we value both efficacy and comfort in medical therapy, and efficiency and safety in robo…
We utilize Wi-Fi communications from smartphones to predict their mobility mode, i.e. walking, biking and driving. Wi-Fi sensors were deployed at four strategic locations in a closed loop on streets in downtown Toronto. Deep neural network (Multilayer Perceptron) along with three decision tree based classifiers (Decisi…