The paper corrects Bayesian neural network approximations to improve decision quality.
problem Inaccurate posterior approximations in Bayesian neural networks lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Develops methods to calibrate approximate posterior predictive distributions for better decision making.
result Empirically produces higher quality decisions compared to previous methods.
This review explores causal decision-making to improve decision quality.
problem Effective decision-making requires understanding causal relationships.
method Causal structure learning, causal effect learning, and causal policy learning.
result Challenges in causal decision-making are identified and recent advances are discussed.
Optimizes treatment duration to maximize quality-adjusted lifetime.
problem Balancing risks and benefits in clinical decision making.
method Proposes a weighted estimating equation to adjust for confounding and informative censoring, and a nonparametric estimator for mean counterfactual quality-adjusted lifetime.
result Shows the optimal time for percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy insertion in ALS patients.
Paper integrates LLMs into portfolio optimization to improve decision quality.
problem Suboptimal portfolio decisions due to mismatch between prediction and decision quality.
method Integrates LLMs with decision-focused learning, using attention mechanism to process asset relationships and macro variables.
result Model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models in portfolio optimization.
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
problem Difficult to assess the quality of individual probabilistic forecasts and their utilities.
method Compensation mechanism based on fair bets and online learning.
result The proposed mechanism cannot be exploited and ensures forecasted utility matches actual utility.
Adaptive AI delegation framework for dynamic decision authority allocation.
problem Dynamic allocation of decision authority to AI-generated recommendations under evolving evidence quality and uncertainty.
method Formulated as a Governance-Aware POMDP, using Bayesian inference for informational state estimation and sequential optimization for authority allocation.
result Sequential Bayesian governance provides the strongest general-purpose policy across AI-quality regimes, adapting to evolving evidence.
DR-MCTS improves decision quality and sample efficiency in complex environments.
problem Improving decision quality and sample efficiency in complex environments.
method Integrates Doubly Robust off-policy estimation into Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS).
result DR-MCTS achieves superior performance in Tic-Tac-Toe and VirtualHome tasks.
Automated Budget Constrained Training optimizes model training under time constraints.
problem Balancing model quality and computational cost in constrained time.
method Developed a hyperparameter optimisation algorithm that learns the relationship between hyperparameters, model quality, and computational cost.
result The algorithm optimally decides whether to terminate or continue training, and what hyperparameters to use.
The paper proposes a method to assess and improve data quality using GBDT training dynamics.
problem Improving data quality in datasets with noisy labels and varying contributions.
method Metrics computed from training dynamics of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs).
result The method achieved the best results compared to other approaches.
This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits--used in the business cases, cost-ben…
Large-scale public datasets have been shown to benefit research in multiple areas of modern artificial intelligence. For decision-making research that requires human data, high-quality datasets serve as important benchmarks to facilitate the development of new methods by providing a common reproducible standard. Many h…
The study analyzes how probabilistic forecasts improve battery trading strategies in electricity markets.
problem Improvements in statistical forecast quality do not directly translate to economic value in battery trading strategies.
method The study frames battery optimization as a stochastic program based on fully probabilistic forecasts and examines decision quality under different uncertainty models.
result The study identifies two critical flaws in quantile-based trading strategies and provides theoretical justification and empirical evidence.
Differences in data size per class, also known as imbalanced data distribution, have become a common problem affecting data quality. Big Data scenarios pose a new challenge to traditional imbalanced classification algorithms, since they are not prepared to work with such amount of data. Split data strategies and lack o…
Simplifies complex RL policies by ranking important decisions.
problem Complexity in RL policies makes them hard to analyze and interpret.
method Statistical fault localisation to rank states and prune unimportant decisions.
result Pruned policies can perform similarly to original policies, improving interpretability.
Many real-life decision-making situations allow further relevant information to be acquired at a specific cost, for example, in assessing the health status of a patient we may decide to take additional measurements such as diagnostic tests or imaging scans before making a final assessment. Acquiring more relevant infor…
Scores measure certainty and doubt in classification predictions.
problem Quantitative uncertainty assessment in classification problems.
method Intuitive scores in Bayesian and frequentist frameworks.
result Measures assess and compare prediction quality and uncertainty.
Improved forecast accuracy for energy systems through decision-focused fine-tuning.
problem Challenges in integrating forecast values into time series models for diverse and specific instances.
method Decision-focused fine-tuning within time series foundation models for dispatchable feeder optimization.
result Improvement of 9.45% in average total daily costs.
Algorithm improves decision-making with partially observed contexts using pretrained models.
problem Improving decision-making with partially observed contexts in online linear contextual bandits.
method PULSE-UCB algorithm that uses pretrained models trained on auxiliary data to impute missing features.
result Achieves near-optimal performance in i.i.d. context case with Hölder-smooth missing features.
Decisions by Machine Learning (ML) models have become ubiquitous. Trusting these decisions requires understanding how algorithms take them. Hence interpretability methods for ML are an active focus of research. A central problem in this context is that both the quality of interpretability methods as well as trust in ML…
DAT-CGAN improves time series generation for better decision support.
problem Generating accurate time series data for decision support.
method DAT-CGAN uses multi-Wasserstein loss and overlapped block-sampling for improved sample efficiency.
result DAT-CGAN outperforms GAN-based baselines in generating data relevant to decision processes.
Study reveals bias in machine learning conference reviews.
problem Bias in machine learning conference review process.
method Comprehensive analysis of ICLR papers from 2017-2020.
result Strong institutional bias in accept/reject decisions.
Study evaluates quality of uncertainty estimates for neural networks.
problem Lack of principled assessment methods for evaluating uncertainty quality in deep learning.
method Statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage, interval width, and expected calibration error.
result Different UQ methods produce markedly different quality uncertainty estimates.
The paper uses interpretable ML to secure data quality in IoT edge computing.
problem Ensuring data quality in IoT edge computing environments.
method Interpretable machine learning methods for feature selection and ensemble learning.
result The proposed method efficiently selects significant features for data processing.
Tree Index evaluates cluster quality by creating decision trees from data.
problem Evaluating the quality of cluster results from various techniques.
method Tree Index creates a decision tree from clustered data, combining entropy and depth of leaves.
result Tree Index discriminates between sensible and non-sensible clusters on brain dataset.
Study explores loss design for decision trees to improve robustness against noisy labels.
problem Improving decision tree robustness to noisy labels.
method Investigated loss correction and symmetric losses, found ineffective.
result Other loss design directions need exploration for robust decision trees.
New method optimizes Gaussian process allocation for BO.
problem Existing methods for inducing point allocation in BO hinder performance.
method Proposes a new allocation strategy using quality-diversity decomposition.
result Demonstrates improved BO performance through local high-fidelity modeling.
PeL separates sensory interface optimization from decision learning.
problem Optimizing sensory interfaces without task-specific information.
method Formal separation of perception and decision learning, using metrics for stability, informativeness, and geometry.
result Updates preserving invariants are orthogonal to decision gradients.
The paper introduces recklessness to improve recommendation quality and quantity.
problem The reliability/coverage dilemma in recommender systems limits the number of recommended items.
method Incorporates a new term (recklessness) into matrix factorization-based recommender systems to address the dilemma.
result Recklessness improves the quantity and quality of recommendations by allowing for risk regulation.
Most decision tree induction algorithms are based on a greedy top-down recursive partitioning strategy for tree growth. In this paper, we propose several methods for induction of decision trees and their ensembles based on evolutionary algorithms. The main difference of our approach is using real-valued vector represen…
Paper proposes SPO paradigm for better portfolio optimization in real markets.
problem Real-world trading frictions and constraints affect portfolio optimization quality.
method SPO paradigm with decision-focused training using surrogate loss and linear predictors.
result Decision-focused training improves risk-adjusted performance and robustness.
GoBOED optimizes experiments for specific decision-making objectives, improving downstream outcomes.
problem Reducing parameter uncertainty does not always improve decision-making in critical settings.
method Combines variational posterior surrogate and differentiable convex decision layer for gradient-based design optimization.
result GoBOED identifies designs that better align with specific decision objectives and reveals wider optimal design windows.
Study examines how classifier performance is affected by training data quality.
problem How classifier performance is affected by training data quality.
method Extensive numerical experiments with four classifiers (Bayes, neural nets, partition models, random forests) on metagenomic assembly data.
result Classifier performance degrades as training data quality degrades, leading to breakdown-like behavior.
Many medical decision-making tasks can be framed as partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, prevailing two-stage approaches that first learn a POMDP and then solve it often fail because the model that best fits the data may not be well suited for planning. We introduce a new optimization objecti…
Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging offers a wide variety of imaging techniques. A large amount of data is created per examination which needs to be checked for sufficient quality in order to derive a meaningful diagnosis. This is a manual process and therefore time- and cost-intensive. Any imaging artifacts originating fr…
A new Thompson Sampling framework handles uncertainty by imputing missing data.
problem Handling uncertainty in contextual bandit problems.
method Generative model to impute missing outcomes, fit policy, and select actions.
result Established a state-of-the-art regret bound that depends on generative model quality.
This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
problem Inflated returns and excessive turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
method KKT-based interpretation of portfolio decisions as ranking over adjusted scores, empirical evaluation of stabilization mechanisms.
result Realistic output constraints and portfolio-level turnover control improve SPO-based strategies.
The effectiveness of machine learning algorithms depends on the quality and amount of data and the operationalization and interpretation by the human analyst. In humanitarian response, data is often lacking or overburdening, thus ambiguous, and the time-scarce, volatile, insecure environments of humanitarian activities…
The Neural Testbed evaluates joint predictions of neural agents, revealing their limitations.
problem Evaluating the quality of joint predictions generated by neural agents.
method Developed an open-source benchmark (The Neural Testbed) to assess agents' marginal and joint predictions.
result Popular Bayesian deep learning agents perform poorly on joint predictions, even with accurate marginal predictions.
This paper argues against using calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities and proposes expected proper scoring rules instead.
problem The assessment of posterior probabilities generated by machine learning classifiers using calibration metrics is flawed and should be replaced with expected proper scoring rules.
method The paper reviews proper scoring rules from a practical perspective, explains why expected PSRs are a principled measure of posterior quality, and introduces a new calibration metric called calibration loss.
result Calibration loss is superior to expected calibration error and expected score divergence calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities.
We consider the use of decision trees for decision-making problems under the predict-then-optimize framework. That is, we would like to first use a decision tree to predict unknown input parameters of an optimization problem, and then make decisions by solving the optimization problem using the predicted parameters. A …
New method reduces regret in budgeted learning problems.
problem Decision-making with limited reward queries.
method Confidence-Budget Matching (CBM) principle.
result CBM-based algorithms perform well in adversarial settings.
Deep neural networks have recently achieved tremendous success in image classification. Recent studies have however shown that they are easily misled into incorrect classification decisions by adversarial examples. Adversaries can even craft attacks by querying the model in black-box settings, where no information abou…
A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.
problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.
New research shows machine-assisted decisions can still be unfair even when the algorithm is fair.
problem Ensuring fairness in decisions made with machine-assisted human input.
method Formal model and lab experiment to analyze how machine predictions affect human decisions.
result Excluding information about protected groups from machine predictions can increase disparities.
The rising volume of datasets has made training machine learning (ML) models a major computational cost in the enterprise. Given the iterative nature of model and parameter tuning, many analysts use a small sample of their entire data during their initial stage of analysis to make quick decisions (e.g., what features o…
The study reveals fundamental limits of fraud detection in card payment networks.
problem Fraud detection in card payment networks is challenging due to structural information impairments.
method Formalized card authorization as a sequential decision problem with delayed feedback, derived minimax regret lower bound.
result Improving issuer reporting quality or reducing censorship can yield larger reductions in the regret floor than increasing model complexity.
Study compares forecasting methods for logistics time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in logistics.
method Compared statistical and machine learning methods on simulated time series.
result Statistical methods outperformed machine learning in one-step forecasts.
Unified stopping rules ensure accurate policies in contextual learning.
problem Stopping data collection to ensure accurate policies in personalized decision problems.
method Developed unified stopping rules based on GLR statistics for pairwise action comparisons.
result Unified stopping rules achieve target precision with fewer samples than benchmarks.