Paper develops a framework for learning interpretable representations of sequential decision behavior.
problem Obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior.
method Inverse decision modeling framework, formalizing both forward and inverse problems.
result Learning interpretable representations of behavior, including suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge.
Proposes BehavDT model for context-aware user behavior prediction.
problem Building a context-aware predictive model based on diverse user behavioral activities.
method Introduces BehavDT, a behavioral decision tree that considers user behavior-oriented generalization.
result BehavDT model outperforms traditional machine learning approaches in predicting user diverse behaviors considering multi-dimensional contexts.
New framework evaluates model explanations based on decision task improvement.
problem Evaluation of model explanations often misses practical value.
method Decision-theoretic framework quantifying three key values.
result Provides benchmarks and interprets human-AI decision support.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.
Unified framework for human-like decision making in various sequential tasks.
problem Real-life decision-making involves diverse strategies leading to similar outcomes.
method Two-stream reward processing mechanism for flexible and unified models.
result Framework unified MAB, CB, and RL with comparable performance.
The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
This paper solves steady-state planning for multichain MDPs.
problem Specifying constraints on the steady-state behavior of an agent.
method Linear programming solution for multichain MDPs.
result Optimal solutions yield stationary policies with rigorous guarantees.
We address the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes where the agent is risk-sensitive. In particular, we model risk-sensitivity in a reinforcement learning framework by making use of models of human decision-making having their origins in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, an…
Study minimax-optimal rates for offline decision-making with function approximation.
problem Statistical complexity of offline decision-making with function approximation.
method Near minimax-optimal rates for stochastic contextual bandits and Markov decision processes, using pseudo-dimension and behavior policy.
result Established performance limits and new characterization of behavior policy.
Interpole learns transparent decision-making policies from data.
problem Understanding human decision-making in opaque environments.
method Interpole combines belief-update and belief-action mapping estimation.
result Interpole provides interpretable models of decision-making behavior.
Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.
problem Limited ability to model and predict human decision-making in stock markets.
method Used networks inference with stochastic block models (SBM) to find most predictive model of unobserved decisions.
result Users mostly use recent information to guess market direction, and their decision-making strategies are analogous to behaviors in other contexts.
Young investors, especially students, dominate Indonesian stock exchanges.
problem Investment behavior of young and rookie investors in the stock market.
method Qualitative approach with descriptive analysis and interviews.
result Perception of behavioral control influences investment decisions.
Neural network approximates Bayesian decision-making parameters.
problem Analytical intractability of Bayesian decision-making in naturalistic tasks.
method Neural amortization of Bayesian actor model.
result Efficient gradient-based inference of Bayesian actor model parameters.
Method learns evolving policies in healthcare contexts.
problem Understanding non-stationary behavior in evolving decision-making processes.
method Inverse Contextual Bandits (ICB) approach for learning interpretable representations of non-stationary behavior.
result Demonstrated applicability and accuracy of ICB method in liver transplantation policies.
Generative AI reduces herd behavior in trading, but can also lead to optimal herding.
problem Impact of generative AI on financial stability and herd behavior.
method Laboratory experiments with large language models replicating human trading behavior.
result AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, reducing herd behavior but also potentially leading to optimal herding.
Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
problem Understanding and optimizing behavior in complex systems.
method Combines Bayesian decision theory, optimal Bayesian design, and the free energy principle.
result Active inference emerges as a unified framework for information-seeking, utility maximization, and goal-directed behavior.
This paper develops a framework for efficient decision-making under time pressure.
problem Efficient decision-making under time pressure and subjective tradeoffs.
method Unified framework for evidence-based decision-making under time pressure.
result Ability to model and understand decision-making behavior under time constraints.
Studies on massive open online courses (MOOCs) users discuss the existence of typical profiles and their impact on the learning process of the students. However defining the typical behaviors as well as classifying the users accordingly is a difficult task. In this paper we suggest two methods to model MOOC users behav…
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior…
New method evaluates AI stock prediction systems based on decision-making processes.
problem Lack of evaluation for AI systems' decision-making processes.
method Scores intermediate decision process using large language models and closed-loop reinforcement learning feedback.
result Composite behavioral score correlates with Sharpe ratio and reduces prediction error.
The paper uses a novel framework to learn option prices by imitating principal investor behavior.
problem Challenges in modeling stock price changes and decision making in equity markets.
method Non-deterministic Markov decision process, Bayesian deep neural network, reinforcement learning.
result Optimal option prices learned through imitation of principal investor behavior.
Modeling decision-making dynamics in MDD patients using RL-HMM.
problem Characterize reward learning strategies in MDD patients.
method Proposed RL-HMM framework to analyze reward-based decision-making.
result MDD patients show reduced engagement in RL compared to healthy controls.
Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior is an approximately optimal solution to an unknown decision problem. These tech…
Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, theoretical models of this kind have develop…
Consequential decision-making typically incentivizes individuals to behave strategically, tailoring their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. A long line of work has therefore sought to counteract strategic behavior by designing more conservative decision boundaries in an effort to increase robustness to th…
An assistant learns to mediate decisions between humans and experts, balancing risk and learning.
problem Learning to mediate decisions between imperfect humans and expert knowledge.
method Formalizes online decision mediation, proposes a policy to balance immediate loss and future generalization.
result Consistent gains over benchmarks in decision-making performance.
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
Study optimal investment with herd behavior using rational decision decomposition.
problem Optimal investment problem considering herd behavior between two agents.
method Introduce average deviation term, use variational method, rational decision decomposition, investment opinion.
result Quantitative analysis of herd behavior impact on investment decisions.
With an eye towards human-centered automation, we contribute to the development of a systematic means to infer features of human decision-making from behavioral data. Motivated by the common use of softmax selection in models of human decision-making, we study the maximum likelihood parameter estimation problem for sof…
New game design method for better trait inference.
problem Inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior.
method Formulated as a mutual information maximization problem, solved using variational lower bound optimization.
result Designed games successfully distinguish among players with different traits, outperforming traditional methods.
The paper proposes sampling strategies for classifier copies.
problem Generating unlabelled points to explore decision behavior.
method Two sampling strategies compared with two standard methods.
result Validation in six problems and comparison of performance and cost.
Study uses FDA to analyze discount functions of different temperaments.
problem Traditional finance models fail to capture individual differences in investment choices.
method Functional Data Analysis (FDA) to investigate temporal discounting behaviors.
result Heterogeneity within each temperament revealed, suggesting diverse investor profiles.
The paper proposes a method to explain expert decisions by modeling preferences with 'what if' outcomes.
problem Interpreting and auditing decision-making policies in institutions.
method Integrating counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning.
result The method effectively recovers accurate and interpretable descriptions of expert behavior.
New model accounts for continuous human trajectories in robotics.
problem Inaccurate probabilistic models of human behavior in robotics.
method Developed a new probabilistic model that considers distances between continuous trajectories.
result The new model outperforms existing models in explaining human behavior and improving robot inference.
Projective simulation converges to optimal behavior in Markov decision processes.
problem Optimizing reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes.
method Projective simulation framework applied to reinforcement learning.
result Projective simulation converges to optimal behavior in a large class of Markov decision processes.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
The paper tackles strategic behavior in decision-making with counterfactual explanations.
problem Finding optimal counterfactual explanations and policies in a strategic setting.
method NP-hard problem, greedy algorithm, submodularity, randomized algorithm, matroid constraint.
result Optimal counterfactual explanations and policies increase utility.
We propose a multimodal approach for detection of students' behavioral engagement states (i.e., On-Task vs. Off-Task), based on three unobtrusive modalities: Appearance, Context-Performance, and Mouse. Final behavioral engagement states are achieved by fusing modality-specific classifiers at the decision level. Various…
RLMM extends psychometric models to larger tasks.
problem Sequential process data from interactive assessments are not well handled by conventional models.
method RLMM decouples person-level choice sensitivity from task-level value representation through a shared parametric action-value function.
result RLMM achieves higher estimation accuracy and lower runtime than MDP-MM in peg-solitaire simulations and AQUALAB gameplay logs.
Deep Recurrent Q-Network improves autonomous driving in urban areas with pedestrians.
problem Challenges in urban autonomous driving due to complex road structures and unpredictable pedestrian behavior.
method Combines Deep Q-Network with LSTM for long-term memory, designed a 3-D state representation, and uses a reward function.
result The proposed DRQN-based approach outperforms rule-based methods in dense urban scenarios.
Analyzes how learning algorithms affect and are affected by data manipulation.
problem Characterizing the closed-loop behavior of learning algorithms in the presence of decision-dependent data.
method Analyzes repeated risk minimization as perturbed gradient flows of performative risk minimization, considering multiple local minimizers.
result Characterizes the region of attraction for various equilibria and introduces performative alignment.
We are witnessing an increasing use of data-driven predictive models to inform decisions. As decisions have implications for individuals and society, there is increasing pressure on decision makers to be transparent about their decision policies. At the same time, individuals may use knowledge, gained by transparency, …
New algorithms approximate state similarity in large MDPs.
problem Computing exact bisimulation metrics in large MDPs is expensive and impractical.
method Developed a new metric tied to behavior policy, and two algorithms for approximating it.
result Presented algorithms that can approximate bisimulation metrics in large, deterministic MDPs.
AI-Interpret transforms opaque policies into simple, interpretable decision rules.
problem Designing effective decision aids for professionals to mitigate decision-making biases.
method Combining imitation learning, program induction, and clustering to transform learned policies into interpretable descriptions.
result Providing interpretable decision rules as flowcharts significantly improves people's planning strategies and decisions.
We derive expressions for the first three moments of the decision time (DT) distribution produced via first threshold crossings by sample paths of a drift-diffusion equation. The "pure" and "extended" diffusion processes are widely used to model two-alternative forced choice decisions, and, while simple formulae for ac…
Customer behavior is often assumed to follow weak rationality, which implies that adding a product to an assortment will not increase the choice probability of another product in that assortment. However, an increasing amount of research has revealed that customers are not necessarily rational when making decisions. In…
The Chain-of-Decision approach improves forecasting of financial professionals' trading decisions.
problem Challenges in forecasting professionals' behaviors, especially in trading decisions.
method Integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on news items.
result Promising improvements in the proposed tasks' performance.