Deep learning improves death cause coding accuracy.
problem Geospatial discrepancies in human-coded death certificates.
method Deep artificial neural network model trained on CépiDc database.
result 97.8% accuracy in automated coding compared to 75% for Iris software.
Looking for associations among multiple variables is a topical issue in statistics due to the increasing amount of data encountered in biology, medicine and many other domains involving statistical applications. Graphical models have recently gained popularity for this purpose in the statistical literature. Following t…
Machine learning automates digitization of historical data.
problem Manual transcription is costly and difficult for large, detailed datasets.
method Apply machine learning techniques for unsupervised layout classification and attention-based neural networks.
result Machine learning can automate the digitization process for historical data.
New algorithms learn stability certificates from data, avoiding complex dynamics.
problem Synthesizing stability certificates from complex dynamical systems.
method Developed algorithms to learn certificate functions from trajectory data, establishing generalization error bounds.
result Efficiently learned certificates can be used for adaptive control.
AI generates a sequence of death causes from hospital records.
problem Accurate death reporting for vital statistics and policy formulation.
method Neural machine translation models to generate causal chains, incorporating medical domain knowledge.
result Achieved 16.04 BLEU score for generating accurate causal chains.
Model predicts US COVID-19 deaths with quantile estimates.
problem Predicting US COVID-19 deaths at county level.
method Hybrid machine learning and epidemiological approach, minimizing pinball loss.
result Quantile estimates accurately forecast deaths for different forecast periods.
Improved neural network robustness certification through tighter convex relaxations.
problem Certifying neural network robustness to perturbed and adversarial inputs.
method Exploiting ReLU network structure, novel partition-based certification procedure.
result Tightens existing linear programming relaxations to achieve zero relaxation error asymptotically.
Develops structured noise for more accurate graph classifier robustness certificates.
problem Isotropic noise limits robustness certificates for graph classifiers.
method Randomized smoothing with anisotropic noise distribution.
result Structured-aware robustness certificates provide more accurate predictions.
New method closes certification gap for adversarially trained models.
problem Certifying robustness of adversarially trained neural networks.
method Nonconvex low-rank SDP relaxation with polynomial-time optimization.
result Strong certifications comparable to SDP methods, but with fewer variables.
Machine learning predicts mask mandates reduce COVID-19 deaths.
problem Effectiveness of mask mandates on reducing COVID-19 deaths.
method Machine learning classification algorithms applied to survey data.
result Mask mandates correlated with reduced death ratios in most counties.
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk+ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this framework, deaths are driven by common latent stochastic risk factors which may…
Study shows death ratio of COVID-19 deaths increases financial volatility.
problem Impact of COVID-19 deaths on financial markets.
method Analysis of VIX index based on daily case reports and death ratios.
result Death ratio positively influences financial volatility.
While neural networks have achieved high performance in different learning tasks, their accuracy drops significantly in the presence of small adversarial perturbations to inputs. Defenses based on regularization and adversarial training are often followed by new attacks to defeat them. In this paper, we propose attack-…
Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.
problem Identify clusters of EU countries with similar mortality patterns in young population.
method Symbolic data analysis (SDA) with age, gender, and main causes of death dimensions.
result Identified clusters of EU countries with similar mortality patterns in young population.
New framework improves adversarial robustness certification for various perturbations.
problem Certifying robustness against adversarial attacks in deep learning models.
method Unified functional optimization approach with non-Gaussian smoothing noise for multiple types of attacks.
result Achieves better certification results and identifies key trade-offs between accuracy and robustness.
Bayesian method synthesizes barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states.
problem Certifying safety in systems with unknown dynamics and latent states.
method Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampler and sum-of-squares program.
result Probabilistic validity of barrier certificates for unknown systems.
We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain closed-form expressions. We apply the method to the three selected birth-death …
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.
Paper develops tighter risk certificates for contrastive learning models.
problem Statistical theory for contrastive learning is lacking, especially for practical models like SimCLR.
method Develops non-vacuous PAC-Bayesian risk certificates considering practical SimCLR factors.
result Risk certificates for contrastive loss and downstream prediction are much tighter than previous results.
Develops local population-risk certificates for model updates
problem Model updates in machine learning
method Certify population-risk increments around a model
result Certified upper endpoint yields a risk-controlled update rule
The performance of a reinforcement learning algorithm can vary drastically during learning because of exploration. Existing algorithms provide little information about the quality of their current policy before executing it, and thus have limited use in high-stakes applications like healthcare. We address this lack of …
New method provides tighter robustness guarantees for adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring robustness against adversarial attacks in machine learning models.
method Developed a Second-order Smoothing (SoS) robustness certificate using Gaussian random smoothing.
result SoS certificates are tighter and provide improved robustness on high-dimensional datasets.
Jointly models cause-of-death mortality rates across multiple countries and genders.
problem Modeling cause-of-death mortality rates in a multinational setting.
method Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP) with Kronecker-structured kernels and latent factors.
result Efficiently captures heterogeneity and dependence across different factor inputs.
This work develops sampling methods for differential privacy using SHK geometry.
problem Approximating sampling for the exponential mechanism in differential privacy.
method Develops perturbation theory for SHK gradient flows and applies to differential privacy.
result Derives time-dependent Pure-DP guarantees and Approximate-DP certificates.
Study birth-death dynamics for sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials.
problem Sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials.
method Birth-death dynamics, Kullback-Leibler divergence, χ2 divergence, kernel-based approximations, Γ-convergence of gradient flows. result Probability density converges exponentially fast to Gibbs equilibrium measure with a universal rate.
New method evaluates personalized treatment in critical care, robust to death.
problem Truncation by death in critical care makes traditional DTR evaluation ineffective.
method Principal stratification-based approach, focusing on always-survivor value function, with a semiparametrically efficient, multiply robust estimator.
result Demonstrates robustness and efficiency of the method for personalized treatment optimization.
This study applies neural models to automatically recognize medical entities from natural language.
problem Automated recognition of medical entities from natural language is complex and time-consuming.
method Utilizes deep neural sequence models trained on a large dataset of death certificates.
result Deep neural models can efficiently recognize medical entities from natural language.
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the birth-death processes as the continuous-time Markov chains and the continuous SDE…
TUV Austria proposes certification for ML applications to ensure reliability.
problem Ensuring trust in AI applications to meet societal reliance requirements.
method Holistic approach analyzing security, functionality, data quality, ethics, and criticality levels.
result Certification process for low-risk ML applications in supervised learning.
Valid certifies LLMs' domain adherence, bounding out-of-domain behavior.
problem Adversarial susceptibility of LLMs to generate out-of-domain outputs.
method VALID approach providing adversarial bounds as a certificate.
result Validates LLMs' domain adherence with meaningful certificates.
Paper provides efficient robustness certificates for neural networks.
problem Ensuring neural networks are robust against adversarial attacks.
method Two-step approach: 1) Efficient convex optimization for robustness certificates with bounded Hessian eigenvalues, 2) Curvature-based regularization during training.
result Significantly higher certified robust accuracy achieved compared to existing methods.
New attack tricks certifiably robust models into mislabeling images.
problem Defeating certified defenses against adversarial examples.
method Spoofed robustness certificates and large perturbations.
result Certifiably robust models can be fooled by large perturbations.
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
New robustness certificates for streaming models with a sliding window.
problem Applying robustness certificates to streaming data with correlated inputs.
method Deriving robustness certificates for models using a sliding window over a sequence of potentially correlated inputs.
result Guarantees hold for the average model performance across the entire stream, independent of stream size.
Survey examines challenges of ML in avionic systems certification.
problem Challenges in current certification standards for ML in avionic systems.
method Literature review focusing on robustness and explainability of ML results.
result Current certification standards do not support ML in avionic systems.
Geometric technique determines exactness of SDP robustness certificate.
problem Certifying robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples.
method Geometric projection onto hyperbola, SDP relaxation of ReLU activation.
result SDP certificate is exact for a single hidden layer under mild assumptions.
We find the optimal investment strategy for an individual who seeks to minimize one of four objectives: (1) the probability that his wealth reaches a specified ruin level {\it before} death, (2) the probability that his wealth reaches that level {\it at} death, (3) the expectation of how low his wealth drops below a sp…
The paper improves risk certificate tightness for neural networks using PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds.
method Theoretical contributions including KL divergence bounds, efficient methodology for optimization, and methods for optimizing non-differentiable objectives.
result First non-vacuous generalization bounds on CIFAR-10 for neural networks.
Study adversarial perturbations in classification, analyzing learning and certification.
problem Formal study of classification under adversarial perturbations from both learner and third-party perspectives.
method PAC-type semi-supervised learning framework, black-box certification under limited query budget, adversary analysis.
result Existence of a polynomial query complexity adversary implies the existence of a sample efficient robust learner.
New method improves robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
problem Improving robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
method Proposes worst-case adversarial loss over input distributions as a robustness certificate, and uses duality and smoothness properties to provide an easy-to-compute upper bound.
result Shows superior robustness performance over state-of-the-art certified or heuristic methods.
New framework certifies robustness for regression models.
problem Certifying robustness for regression models is challenging.
method Derives a prediction-centered certificate that exploits local geometry.
result Gradient information yields tighter robustness certificates.
A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We propose a new sampling algorithm based on a birth-death mechanis…
SREC markets are a relatively novel market-based system to incentivize the production of energy from solar means. A regulator imposes a floor on the amount of energy each regulated firm must generate from solar power in a given period and provides them with certificates for each generated MWh. Firms offset these certif…
This paper develops a general theoretical framework to analyze structured sparse recovery problems using the notation of dual certificate. Although certain aspects of the dual certificate idea have already been used in some previous work, due to the lack of a general and coherent theory, the analysis has so far only be…
New method uses birth-death process and exploration component to accelerate sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal probability distributions efficiently.
method Combines birth-death process and exploration component to accelerate sampling.
result Proves exponential asymptotic convergence under mild assumptions.
Given a tame knot K presented in the form of a knot diagram, we show that the problem of determining whether K is knotted is in the complexity class NP, assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis (GRH). In other words, there exists a polynomial-length certificate that can be verified in polynomial time to prove that K…
New method certifies robustness to sparse adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring robustness of classifiers to sparse adversarial attacks.
method Randomized ablation of input features to provide robustness guarantees.
result Certifies robustness to sparse adversarial attacks with up to 31 pixels of distortion.
New method defends against patch attacks with high-certainty guarantees.
problem Patch attacks on images, especially physical adversarial attacks.
method Randomized smoothing, exploiting patch constraints.
result Meaningfully large robustness certificates against patch attacks.