Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.
Combining experimental and observational data for long-term causal effects.
problem Estimating causal effects of treatment on long-term outcomes using mixed data types.
method Three approaches for fusing experimental and observational data: equal confounding, shared confounder, and proxy variables.
result Developed estimators for each approach and analyzed their robustness.
Estimates long-term effects from short-term experiments and observational data with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating long-term causal effects from short-term experiments and long-term observational data with unobserved confounding.
method Combining regression residuals with short-term experimental outcomes to create an instrumental variable for estimating long-term causal effects.
result The estimator is unbiased and its variance is analytically studied.
Improved NODEs for long-term time series forecasting.
problem Dealing with complex, multi-frequency data.
method Progressive learning paradigm with curriculum learning.
result Performance improved by over 64%.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Combines spatial context priors with data term for better dendritic spine segmentation.
problem Poor segmentation results due to overlapping pixel intensity distributions.
method Combines nonparametric context priors with learned-intensity data term and nonparametric shape priors.
result Significant improvements in dendritic spine segmentation.
We study the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA). For all daily and high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property is detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property is found in th…
Estimates long-term effects of new treatments using historical and short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects of novel treatments with limited historical data.
method Surrogate indices, dynamic treatment effect estimation, and double machine learning combined in a unified pipeline.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimates of long-term effects under Markovian assumption.
Study improves machine learning for long-term financial portfolio management.
problem Machine learning precision declines with long-term data.
method Data augmentation using multiple time scales and learning data.
result Generalization performance can be maintained for long-term tasks.
Study shows diverse data sources improve cryptocurrency forecasting models.
problem Improving cryptocurrency market forecasting accuracy.
method Integrating various data types, including on-chain metrics, traditional indices, and macroeconomic indicators.
result Data source diversity significantly enhances forecasting model performance.
The paper predicts travel times using tree-based ensembles.
problem Predicting travel times between urban points over short and long horizons.
method Tree-based ensemble methods trained on taxi trip records with additional features from weather and routing data.
result Adding routing data improves model performance and short-term predictions require less data.
A new method learns term weights for better text classification.
problem Improving text classification performance using term weighting.
method Learning to Weight (LTW) approach that optimizes term weights on training data.
result Learning to Weight (LTW) outperforms previous term weighting approaches in text classification.
We present a graph-based variational algorithm for classification of high-dimensional data, generalizing the binary diffuse interface model to the case of multiple classes. Motivated by total variation techniques, the method involves minimizing an energy functional made up of three terms. The first two terms promote a …
DD-SP uses ML to improve SP for Lorenz 96 systems, outperforming LR and DD-P.
problem Improving computational efficiency in weather/climate modeling.
method Data-driven super-parameterization using recurrent neural networks.
result DD-SP is more accurate and cheaper than SP, especially with scale separation.
LEMN improves memory networks for learning from streaming data.
problem Efficiently processing large data streams in memory-augmented neural networks.
method LEMN uses a RNN-based retention agent to learn and replace less important memory entries based on their importance and historical context.
result LEMN achieves significant improvements over existing methods in learning from streaming data.
DSARF models complex spatio-temporal data with deep switching auto-regressive factors.
problem Forecasting complex spatio-temporal data with recurring patterns.
method Deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF) with stochastic variational inference.
result DSARF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long- and short-term prediction accuracy.
We present a simple quantile regression-based forecasting method that was applied in a probabilistic load forecasting framework of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017). The hourly load data is log transformed and split into a long-term trend component and a remainder term. The key forecasting ele…
Paper presents a method for estimating long-term PDs with incomplete data.
problem Estimating long-term PDs with limited and incomplete historical data.
method Single risk factor approach for simultaneous calibration of PDs across sub-portfolios.
result Method yields long-term PDs without requiring complete historical data.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements from trade data.
problem Predicting short-term price changes in cryptocurrencies.
method Long Short-term Memory Network (LSTM) trained on trade-by-trade data.
result Optimal LSTM model achieves over 60% accuracy on out-of-sample test periods.
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
Fuzzy clustering reduces text data dimensions effectively.
problem Sparsity and high dimensionality in document-term frequency matrices.
method Fuzzy clustering applied as a new unsupervised feature transformation method.
result Fuzzy clustering outperforms PCA and SVD in reducing text data dimensions.
This study uses LSTM and SARIMA models to forecast CPU usage in cloud computing.
problem Predicting future CPU usage in cloud computing centers.
method Used LSTM and SARIMA models to forecast CPU usage over short and long time scales.
result SARIMA model performed better for long-term predictions but LSTM was more robust.
A method for selecting data for short-term load forecasting using Bayesian probabilistic models.
problem Lack of effective data selection techniques in power load forecasting.
method A fully automatic methodology based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model.
result The method improves the performance of load forecast models using real data.
Efficient kernel method learns differential equations with fewer data.
problem Learning differential equations with limited data and computational resources.
method Kernel-based framework for differential equations with theoretical error bounds.
result Significant improvements in accuracy and computational efficiency.
A novel online GP model captures long-term memory in sequential data.
problem Capturing long-term memory in sequential data online.
method Integrates HiPPO framework into interdomain GP, leveraging time-varying orthogonal projections as inducing variables.
result OHSVGP outperforms existing online GP methods in predictive performance, long-term memory preservation, and computational efficiency.
We investigated distributions of short term price trends for high frequency stock market data. A number of trends as a function of their lengths was measured. We found that such a distribution does not fit to results following from an uncorrelated stochastic process. We proposed a simple model with a memory that gives …
Online TERM improves robustness and fairness in streaming data.
problem Streaming data's lack of worst-case fairness and robustness in ERM.
method Proposes an online TERM formulation to balance average-case accuracy with worst-case fairness and robustness.
result Negative tilting effectively suppresses outlier influence, positive tilting improves recall with minimal precision loss.
New RNN model handles long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series.
problem Handling long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series data.
method Designing ODE-LSTMs that separate memory from continuous-time state.
result ODE-LSTMs outperform other RNN-based models on non-uniformly sampled data with long-term dependencies.
A new model learns demand patterns from data, reducing complexity and improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting short-term demand from spatiotemporal data with complex patterns.
method Temporal-Guided Network (TGNet) using graph networks and temporal-guided embedding.
result TGNet achieves competitive performance with fewer parameters compared to state-of-the-art models.
The paper proposes Tier Balancing for dynamic fairness in decision-making.
problem Achieving long-term fairness in decision-making processes.
method Causal modeling with DAGs to investigate dynamic fairness.
result Tier Balancing is a more natural approach to achieve long-term fairness, capturing latent causal factors.
Study automorphism groups of Inoue surfaces using quadratic number fields.
problem Understanding automorphism groups of Inoue surfaces.
method Construction and description of automorphism groups using quadratic number fields.
result Automorphism groups of Inoue surfaces S(+)/S(−) described in terms of quadratic number fields. RS-HDMR-GPR simplifies complex functions with machine-learned lower-dimensional terms.
problem Representing and understanding complex multidimensional functions with sparse data.
method Random Sampling High Dimensional Model Representation Gaussian Process Regression (RS-HDMR-GPR).
result Facilitates recovery of functional dependence and adds insight into input variable importance.
THP model captures complex dependencies in event sequences efficiently.
problem Inability of existing models to capture long-term dependencies in event sequences.
method Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model using self-attention mechanism.
result THP outperforms existing models in likelihood and event prediction accuracy.
New analysis shows bias term affects conditions for benign overfitting in linear classifiers.
problem Understanding conditions for good generalization in linear classifiers with bias terms.
method Extending Hashimoto et al.'s results to include bias terms, analyzing covariance structure and label noise.
result Benign overfitting persists in linear classifiers with bias terms, with new constraints on data's covariance structure.
Automatically mined rules from dependency parsing help neural models learn from less labeled data.
problem Lack of labeled data for aspect and opinion term extraction.
method Automatically mined rules from dependency parsing, applied to auxiliary data, combined with human-annotated data.
result Neural models achieve better performance than state-of-the-art with mined rules and auxiliary data.
New findings show a balance between data fit and complexity in kernel hyperparameters.
problem Overcorrelation due to reparametrization of kernel hyperparameters.
method Reparametrization of kernel hyperparameters and analysis of marginal likelihood.
result Data fit term influences all other kernel hyperparameters, not just the complexity penalty.
The paper analyzes CycleGAN's error components for unpaired data generation.
problem Analyzing approximation and estimation errors in CycleGAN for unpaired data.
method Decomposes risk into approximation and estimation errors, analyzing each separately and considering their trade-offs.
result Theoretical insights into CycleGAN's performance through error analysis.
DA-LSTM adapts LSTM depth to non-uniform data, improving efficiency.
problem Non-uniform information distribution in sequential data cannot be accurately modeled by traditional LSTM.
method Developed DA-LSTM architecture that dynamically adjusts LSTM depth based on information distribution.
result DA-LSTM reduces computation resource usage and convergence time by 41.78% and 46.01% respectively.
TimeMixer predicts global financial asset volatility, excelling in short-term forecasts.
problem Predicting volatility in global financial markets is challenging due to complexity and non-linear dynamics.
method Uses TimeMixer, a multiscale-mixing model for forecasting across different scales.
result TimeMixer performs exceptionally well in short-term volatility forecasting but less so in longer-term predictions.
The paper addresses estimating long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with missing data, especially monotone missing.
method The paper introduces the sequential missingness assumption for identification and proposes three novel estimation methods: inverse probability weighting, sequential regression imputation, and SeqMSM. It also introduces a balancing-enhanced approach, BalanceNet, to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods, including BalanceNet, effectively estimate long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
We consider online optimization in the 1-lookahead setting, where the objective does not decompose additively over the rounds of the online game. The resulting formulation enables us to deal with non-stationary and/or long-term constraints , which arise, for example, in online display advertising problems. We propose a…
fSDE-Net generates time series with long-term memory using neural networks.
problem Generating time series with long-term memory from irregularly sampled data.
method fSDE-Net: neural fractional Stochastic Differential Equation Network using fractional Brownian motion.
result fSDE-Net can replicate distributional properties of real time-series data.
This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term hedging horizon can be scaled and successfully applied to longer term horizons. We als…
In this paper we outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically through a process of proliferation and mutation, with each member attempting to map to trends in price movements. Successful trackers fee…
Paper proposes a new method for hourly load forecasting using smart meter data.
problem Challenges in short-term load forecasting at fine granularity.
method Forecasting using Matrix Factorization (fmf) for hourly load forecasting.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in load forecasting.
Deep Mixtures of Unigrams improve clustering of high-dimensional sparse text data.
problem Challenging unsupervised classification of very short documents with many terms.
method Developed a deep version of mixtures of Unigrams in a Bayesian framework.
result Deep Mixtures of Unigrams outperform traditional methods in classification accuracy.