Data-driven method for option pricing using historical asset prices.
problem Tackling the gap between historical asset prices and risk-neutral option pricing.
method Identifying a pricing kernel process, solving utility maximization and functional optimization problems using deep learning.
result Demonstrated the efficiency of the data-driven option pricing methodology.
This paper develops a pricing model for data assets from the buyer's perspective.
problem Insufficient research on pricing data assets from the buyer's perspective.
method Develops a pricing model based on the informational value of data assets from the buyer's perspective, using an implicit function derived from value functions in investment-consumption problems under ambiguity markets.
result Derives general expressions and explicit pricing formulas for data assets under various conditions.
Framework for pricing data products in data-poor markets.
problem Challenges in pricing advanced data products due to lack of transaction data.
method Prior-predictive Monte Carlo framework for generating probabilistic price bands.
result Stable probabilistic price bands for data products in data-poor markets.
Paper presents a data-driven method for option pricing.
problem Option pricing accuracy under market volatility.
method Data-driven ensemble approach based on no-arbitrage theory.
result Model performance validated with real data.
New loss functions optimize pricing policies using transaction data, ensuring expected revenue guarantees.
problem Optimizing pricing policies with transaction data where valuation data is not directly observed.
method Introducing convex loss functions for contextual pricing, focusing on log-concave valuation distributions.
result Proved expected revenue bounds for generalized hinge and quantile pricing loss functions.
Study finds on-chain data can proxy off-chain cryptocurrency pricing.
problem Develop methods to proxy off-chain cryptocurrency pricing using on-chain data.
method Graphical models, mutual information, and ensemble machine learning.
result A significant amount of pricing information is contained in on-chain data, but precise prices are hard to recover except on short time scales.
If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator …
Proposes a method to repair arbitrage in option prices data.
problem Arbitrage in option price data can lead to poor performance or failure of financial applications.
method Formulates data repair as a linear programming (LP) problem to minimise price changes within bid and ask price bounds.
result The proposed method gives sparse perturbations on data and improves model calibration with enhanced robustness and reduced calibration error.
The paper develops loss functions for pricing models using observational data.
problem Evaluating pricing policies directly from observational data with historical biases.
method Adapting machine learning techniques for corrupted labels to derive unbiased loss functions.
result Identifies minimum variance and robust estimators for contextual pricing.
Machine learning models outperform traditional option pricing models.
problem Improving option pricing accuracy using complex models.
method Evaluation of machine learning (NN, RF, CatBoost) and traditional models (Black-Scholes, Heston) on synthetic and real data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional models in predicting option prices.
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial derivatives. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g--expectation defined by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as its generating function. Black-Scholes pricing model is a special linear case of this pricin…
StockTime predicts stock prices more accurately using LLMs and time series data.
problem Challenges in integrating time series data and natural language for stock price prediction.
method StockTime is a specialized LLM architecture that integrates textual and time series data to predict stock prices.
result StockTime outperforms recent LLMs in predicting stock prices with more accuracy.
Deep learning predicts crop prices with improved accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of agricultural crop prices for better decision-making.
method Innovative deep learning approach using GNNs and CNN models.
result At least 20% better performance than previous literature.
We consider a context-based dynamic pricing problem of online products, which have low sales. Sales data from Alibaba, a major global online retailer, illustrate the prevalence of low-sale products. For these products, existing single-product dynamic pricing algorithms do not work well due to insufficient data samples.…
Study evaluates different price response definitions for NASDAQ stocks.
problem Understanding the long-lasting effects of trading activity on stock prices.
method Examined two different price response implementations for NASDAQ Trades and Quotes (TAQ) data.
result Results are qualitatively the same for two different time scale definitions, but response can vary by up to a factor of two.
FinALBERT predicts stock prices using labelled Stocktwits data.
problem Efficient stock price prediction with limited labelled datasets.
method FinALBERT is an ALBERT-based model trained on labelled Stocktwits data for financial text classification.
result FinALBERT achieves optimal results in predicting stock price changes.
Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives using market option data.
problem Creating robust price bounds for multi-asset derivatives under market-implied dependence.
method Extracting inter-asset dependence information from market option prices and applying modified martingale optimal transport.
result Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives, demonstrating relevance and tractability.
Fast probabilistic option price predictions using modular Bayesian inference.
problem Accurate probabilistic predictions of future option prices.
method Modular approximate Bayesian inference framework that combines multiple data sources.
result Accurate probabilistic option-price predictions in realistic scenarios.
New data improves market impact estimation methods.
problem Improving efficiency of market impact estimation.
method Investigates the use of price trajectory data for market impact estimation.
result Estimation methods using early trade prices outperform established methods asymptotically.
LLT improves cryptocurrency price movement prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting intraday price movements of cryptocurrencies.
method Linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) applied to cryptocurrency price data.
result LLT significantly enhances prediction accuracy for all cryptocurrencies.
New framework uses trading volume instead of volatility for stock pricing.
problem Improving stock price dynamics understanding and market data gap.
method Proposes a new stock pricing model using trading volume instead of volatility, based on two hypotheses.
result The new framework can be applied to option pricing and points to a new direction in finance.
Historical returns depend on historical closing prices and distributions. We describe how to compute adjusted closing prices from closing price/distribution data with an emphasis on spreadsheet implementation. Then the growth of a security from one date to another (1 + total return) is just the ratio of the correspondi…
Hybrid approach improves crude oil price forecasting using multi-scale data.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices with multi-scale data.
method Hybrid approach combining K-means, KPCA, and KELM.
result Hybrid approach outperforms traditional methods in both level and directional forecasting accuracy.
Deep learning models predict stock prices with high accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of stock prices despite market unpredictability.
method CNN and LSTM-based deep learning models trained on historical stock data.
result Models achieve high accuracy in forecasting future stock prices.
Transfer learning improves electricity price forecasting accuracy.
problem Accurate day-ahead electricity price prediction using available data.
method Pre-train a neural network on source markets and fine-tune for target market.
result Transfer learning significantly improves forecasting performance.
The paper uses news headlines to predict stock prices using embeddings.
problem Predicting stock prices using news headlines.
method Using OpenAI-based text embedding models and PCA to create vector encodings of news headlines, then training machine learning models on financial data.
result Headline data embeddings improve stock price prediction by at least 40%.
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Volatility and varied opinions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed a model combining sentiment analysis of tweets and historical price data.
result Sentiment prediction MAPE of 9.45%, price prediction MAPE of 3.6%
This paper presents approaches to determine a network based pricing for 3D printing services in the context of a two-sided manufacturing-as-a-service marketplace. The intent is to provide cost analytics to enable service bureaus to better compete in the market by moving away from setting ad-hoc and subjective prices. A…
Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.
problem Forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC markets.
method Combining Naive, Fourier, ARMA/GARCH, mean-reversion, jump-diffusion, and RNN models.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting compared to individual models.
The paper introduces a new price model based on entropy that better fits high-frequency market data.
problem Understanding fair prices in high-frequency markets with bid-ask imbalance.
method A parametrized family of prices derived from the Maximum Entropy Principle, minimizing bias given volume imbalance.
result The model can generate higher kurtosis and heavy-tailed distributions compared to standard models.
This study uses neural networks to predict Bitcoin prices, finding GRUs outperform LSTMs.
problem Predicting Bitcoin's volatile price movements.
method Used LSTMs and GRUs for forecasting, with L2 regularization to reduce overfitting.
result GRUs models outperform LSTMs in predicting Bitcoin's price with lower MSE.
Model predicts volatility and dependencies in EUA and energy prices.
problem Analyzing uncertainty and dependencies in European carbon and energy prices.
method Probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model with VECM-Copula-GARCH structure.
result Forecasting performance evaluated in an extensive rolling-window study.
Study examines impact of oil and gold prices on Tehran Stock Exchange.
problem Impact of oil and gold prices on Tehran Stock Exchange.
method ARIMA-Copula model, cross-validation, Clayton copula.
result TSE is indirectly influenced by gold price through other factors such as oil; TSE is not independent of oil price volatility.
Machine learning models outperform traditional CAPM in forecasting financial asset prices.
problem Predicting and forecasting financial asset prices and returns.
method Comparison of modern Machine Learning algorithms with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on U.S. equities data.
result Implemented Machine Learning models significantly outperform the CAPM on out-of-sample test data.
A fast model estimates future prices from orderbook data.
problem Estimating future prices from orderbook data.
method Hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin machine framework for fast estimation.
result Demonstrated robust estimate of future prices.
Physics-Informed Neural Network improves option pricing accuracy.
problem Improving option pricing accuracy using machine learning.
method Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) applied to Black-Scholes equation.
result PINN model accurately captures option pricing behavior on both simulated and real market data.
A new mechanism optimizes data marketplace pricing efficiently.
problem Designing fair and efficient pricing mechanisms for data marketplaces.
method Two-stage approach: auctions to estimate value distributions, then optimal posted prices.
result MAPP achieves optimal revenue with minimal price discrimination.
Deep learning models predict option prices from 3D tensor data.
problem Predicting option prices for risk management and trading.
method 3D tensor representation of financial data, deep learning models (2D tensors in 3 channels).
result Proposed models outperform traditional methods like B-S model and vector-based LSTM.
Study contextual online pricing with biased offline data, achieving optimal regret bounds.
problem Contextual online pricing with biased offline data.
method Identify δ2 to measure data bias, use OFU policy and robust variant for unknown bias. result Achieve minimax-optimal regret bounds for contextual pricing.
This study improves stock price prediction using multimodal data.
problem Improving financial asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Combining candlestick time series and textual news flow data using LSTM and pre-trained models.
result Textual modality reduces MAPE by 55%.
Mainstream financial econometrics methods are based on models well tuned to replicate price dynamics, but with little to no economic justification. In particular, the randomness in these models is assumed to result from a combination of exogenous factors. In this paper, we present a model originating from game theory, …
This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand equations in a GARCH framework using hourly data fo…
Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this kind of data positively, the choice of keywords being by far the greatest culpr…
Optimizes reserve prices for first-price auctions to maximize revenue.
problem Optimizing reserve prices for first-price auctions in display advertising.
method Gradient-based algorithm to adaptively update and optimize reserve prices based on bidder responsiveness to experimental shocks.
result Revenue optimization in first-price auctions can be decomposed into demand and bidding components, and techniques are introduced to reduce variance of each.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
ReVol normalizes stock price features to mitigate distribution shifts, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Distribution shifts in stock price data hinder accurate prediction.
method ReVol uses normalization, attention-based estimation, and geometric Brownian motion.
result ReVol achieves an average improvement of more than 0.03 in IC and over 0.7 in SR.
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with si…
Measures price impact in order-driven markets without relying on averages.
problem Measuring price impact in order-driven markets without relying on averages.
method Modeling the limit order book using state-dependent Hawkes processes and defining price impact profile as a function of the compensator of a stochastic process.
result The clustering of sell child orders has a bigger impact on price than their sizes.