A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method estimates marginal likelihood for deep learning models using training data alone.
Efficiently estimates marginal likelihood using SGAIS.
Bayesian approach learns invariances from data alone, but last layer approximation is not always sufficient.
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through -fold partitioning or leave-$p…
The paper derives a formula for factorizing categorical data to improve Bayes classifiers.
Estimates log marginal likelihood using multilevel Monte Carlo.
Identifies interpretable generative model for multivariate data.
Proposes a method to optimize neural network initialization using marginal likelihood maximization.
Bayesian evidence helps compare models but can overfit.
We present and implement two algorithms for analytic asymptotic evaluation of the marginal likelihood of data given a Bayesian network with hidden nodes. As shown by previous work, this evaluation is particularly hard for latent Bayesian network models, namely networks that include hidden variables, where asymptotic ap…
It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than with respect to the standard marginal likelihood criterion. However, for most Ba…
Generalising well in supervised learning tasks relies on correctly extrapolating the training data to a large region of the input space. One way to achieve this is to constrain the predictions to be invariant to transformations on the input that are known to be irrelevant (e.g. translation). Commonly, this is done thro…
We consider the problem of discriminative factor analysis for data that are in general non-Gaussian. A Bayesian model based on the ranks of the data is proposed. We first introduce a new {\em max-margin} version of the rank-likelihood. A discriminative factor model is then developed, integrating the max-margin rank-lik…
New method resolves nonidentifiability in mixture models.
Improves hyperparameter learning in GP models with non-conjugate likelihoods.
Deep Gaussian processes provide a flexible approach to probabilistic modelling of data using either supervised or unsupervised learning. For tractable inference approximations to the marginal likelihood of the model must be made. The original approach to approximate inference in these models used variational compressio…
A fast method estimates group-adaptive elastic net penalties using co-data.
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…
Proposes learning invariances in neural networks using a weight-space approach.
Due to the intractable partition function, the exact likelihood function for a Markov random field (MRF), in many situations, can only be approximated. Major approximation approaches include pseudolikelihood and Laplace approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel way of approximating the likelihood function throug…
A distributed method for Bayesian model choice using marginal likelihood and Monte Carlo sampling.
New particle filter estimates model evidence without bias.
The paper introduces multimodal generative models to improve data marginal likelihood.
Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response var…
Improved Gaussian process regression with tighter log marginal likelihood bounds.
iFlow improves latent representation recovery by directly maximizing marginal likelihood.
The paper discusses the impact of prior densities on Bayesian model selection.
Robust GP model detects and corrects sparse outliers.
Computing the marginal likelihood (ML) of a model requires marginalizing out all of the parameters and latent variables, a difficult high-dimensional summation or integration problem. To make matters worse, it is often hard to measure the accuracy of one's ML estimates. We present bidirectional Monte Carlo, a technique…
We present novel understandings of the Gamma-Poisson (GaP) model, a probabilistic matrix factorization model for count data. We show that GaP can be rewritten free of the score/activation matrix. This gives us new insights about the estimation of the topic/dictionary matrix by maximum marginal likelihood estimation. In…
Neural models improve GLMMs for complex data.
We propose a novel and flexible rank-breaking-then-composite-marginal-likelihood (RBCML) framework for learning random utility models (RUMs), which include the Plackett-Luce model. We characterize conditions for the objective function of RBCML to be strictly log-concave by proving that strict log-concavity is preserved…
Improves Gaussian process regression without bias.
Warm starts improve Gaussian process regression by up to 16x.
Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with generalized divergences as a form of estimating the marginal likelihood via biased import…
Bayesian approach sparsifies neural networks efficiently.
This work proposes a method to optimize hyperparameters without validation data.
New algorithm improves latent variable model estimation.
This work gives an in-depth derivation of the trainable evidence lower bound obtained from the marginal joint log-Likelihood with the goal of training a Multi-Modal Variational Autoencoder (MVAE).
Improved likelihood-free inference by localizing and refining low-dimensional approximations.
This paper studies binary classification problem associated with a family of loss functions called large-margin unified machines (LUM), which offers a natural bridge between distribution-based likelihood approaches and margin-based approaches. It also can overcome the so-called data piling issue of support vector machi…
We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a relaxation of the marginal likelihood obtained by considering the density of the variable…
Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically either uses MCMC schemes which target the joint posterior of the parameters and some…