Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
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Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, U…
The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as the mind-boggling and unresolved mystery about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened. It was created by the manipulation of data. Economic growth in various regions is…
The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revo…
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian…
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. Our main finding is that the distribution of GDP grow…
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. They demonstrate convincingly that the takeoffs from stagnation to growth, claimed in the Unified Growth Theory, never happened. This theory is again contradicted by data, which were used, but never properly analysed, during its formulation. The absence of the cl…
Data describing historical growth of income per capita [Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP/cap)] for the world economic growth and for the growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America are analysed. They follow closely the linearly-modulated hyperbolic distributions represent…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions. It is shown here that the fundamental postulates of this theory are contradicted …
Study on polynomial growth functions and forms on gradient Ricci solitons.
problem Estimating dimensions of polynomial growth holomorphic functions and forms.
method Relating to spectral data of the -Laplacian, proving estimates under curvature assumptions.
result Sharp dimension estimates and almost sharp frequency estimates for polynomial growth holomorphic functions.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. He created them by his habitually distorted presentation of data. One of his self-creat…
Study uses web search data to analyze tech startups growth.
problem Analyzing growth dynamics of tech startups.
method Utilized Google Trends data for 241 US-based tech startups.
result Web search traffic correlates positively with tech startup growth.
Subgroup detection in linear growth curve models with generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) treesstat.ME
GLMM trees identify subgroups with different growth patterns in longitudinal data.
problem Identifying subgroups with distinct growth trajectories in longitudinal studies.
method Extended GLMM trees for longitudinal data.
result Extended GLMM trees outperform other methods in accuracy and speed.
One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three distinctly different regimes of economic growth governed by three distinctly different mechanisms of growth. However, Galor also proposed that the timing of these regimes is different for developed countries and for less-de…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant val…
Method reconstructs aneurysm growth history from patient parameters using physics-informed autoencoder.
problem Predicting arterial aneurysm rupture due to inaccessible growth time series.
method Physics-informed autoencoder combined with neural network for mapping patient parameters to aneurysm growth time history.
result Incorporating physical model constraints improves time series reconstruction, especially in noisy data.
Deep learning models brain deformations based on atrophy and growth data.
problem Simulating brain deformations due to atrophy and growth.
method Differentiable biomechanical model using deep learning.
result Trained model can rapidly simulate new brain deformations with minimal residuals.
Investment strategy based on a company growth modelcond-mat.stat-mech
We first estimate the average growth of a company's annual income and its variance by using both real company data and a numerical model which we already introduced a couple of years ago. Investment strategies expecting for income growth is evaluated based on the numerical model. Our numerical simulation suggests the p…
Examines financial risks' impact on EU-15 economic growth.
problem The impact of financial risks on economic growth in EU-15.
method Panel estimated generalized least squares method with additional control variables.
result Financial risks significantly impact economic growth in EU-15.
Study shows how macroprudential policies affect credit growth in Israel, especially in housing and business sectors.
problem Impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Israel.
method Bank-level panel data analysis for Israel, 2004-2019; interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies.
result Accommodative monetary policy interacts with macroprudential policies to increase total credit growth.
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
We introduce a solvable model of randomly growing systems consisting of many independent subunits. Scaling relations and growth rate distributions in the limit of infinite subunits are analysed theoretically. Various types of scaling properties and distributions reported for growth rates of complex systems in a variety…
Study predicts U.S. county COVID-19 growth using demographic and social distancing data.
problem Predicting county-level COVID-19 growth during the pandemic.
method Spectral clustering, correlation matrix, demographic features, social distancing scores, LSTM model.
result Effective prediction of future county growth using demographic and social distancing data.
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It allows for a unique identification of hyperbolic distributions and for unravelling co…
LSTM predicts COVID-19 growth patterns from global data.
problem Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 using big data and machine learning.
method Used multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) to learn correlations over time.
result LSTM outperformed RNN in predicting COVID-19 growth with lower validation error.
This study assesses how share capital affects financial growth of non-financial firms listed at NSE.
problem Non-financial firms listed at NSE struggle with financial growth due to declining performance and lack of investor interest.
method Descriptive and panel data analysis of 45 non-financial firms over 10 years.
result Share capital positively and significantly influences financial growth, explaining 32.73% and 11.62% of variations in earnings per share and market capitalization growth, respectively.
Quantifying the improvement in human living standard, as well as the city growth in developing countries, is a challenging problem due to the lack of reliable economic data. Therefore, there is a fundamental need for alternate, largely unsupervised, computational methods that can estimate the economic conditions in the…
Bayesian Causal Forests model assesses part-time work's impact on student growth.
problem Estimating causal effects of part-time work on student growth in mathematics achievement.
method Longitudinal Bayesian Causal Forests model combining non-parametric and difference-in-differences methods.
result Negative impact of part-time work for most students, potential benefits for those with low school belonging, widening achievement gap identified.
Study shows long-term debt impacts financial growth of non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
problem Declining financial performance and reluctance to lend to non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
method Descriptive and panel data analysis of 45 non-financial firms over 10 years.
result Long-term debt positively and significantly influences financial growth measured by earnings per share and market capitalization.
Firms Growth Dynamics, Competition and Power Law Scalingcond-mat.stat-mech
We study the growth dynamics of the size of manufacturing firms considering competition and normal distribution of competency. We start with the fact that all components of the system struggle with each other for growth as happened in real competitive bussiness world. The detailed quantitative agreement of the theory w…
Study assesses short-term debt's impact on non-financial firms' financial growth.
problem Declining financial performance and reluctance to lend to non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
method Explanatory research design, descriptive statistics, and panel data analysis.
result Short-term debt positively and significantly influences financial growth.
Deep learning predicts plant growth and yield in greenhouses.
problem Predicting plant growth and yield for better greenhouse management.
method Utilized a new deep recurrent neural network (RNN) with LSTM neurons to model growth parameters.
result Deep learning models outperformed traditional ML methods in predicting plant growth and yield.
This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.
problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.
We introduce a model of proportional growth to explain the distribution of business firm growth rates. The model predicts that the distribution is exponential in the central part and depicts an asymptotic power-law behavior in the tails with an exponent 3. Because of data limitations, previous studies in this field hav…
Do firms share the same functional form of their growth rate distribution? A new statistical testphysics.data-an
We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functio…
The paper introduces a method for forecasting corporate sales growth using multiple reference variables.
problem Forecasting corporate sales growth with multiple reference variables.
method Reference class selection using rank-based algorithms and principal components analysis for data dimension reduction.
result Dimension reduced variables with past sales growth rates and operating margins perform well in forecasting.
We introduce a simple agent-based model which allows us to analyze three stylized facts: a fat-tailed size distribution of companies, a `tent-shaped' growth rate distribution, the scaling relation of the growth rate variance with firm size, and the causality between them. This is achieved under the simple hypothesis th…
The paper models US inflation and hyperinflation using monetary and GDP data.
problem Understanding and predicting inflation and hyperinflation.
method Developed economic models to predict US CPI growth based on BMS, GDP, and savings.
result An exact relationship between CPI growth and BMS growth minus GDP and savings growth was found, with a residual term.
We develop a simple theoretical framework for the evolution of weighted networks that is consistent with a number of stylized features of real-world data. In our framework, the Barabasi-Albert model of network evolution is extended by assuming that link weights evolve according to a geometric Brownian motion. Our model…
A Generalized Preferential Attachment Model for Business Firms Growth Rates: I. Empirical Evidencephysics.data-an
We introduce a model of proportional growth to explain the distribution of business firm growth rates. The model predicts that is Laplace in the central part and depicts an asymptotic power-law behavior in the tails with an exponent . Because of data limitations, previous studies in this field have b…
The world is witnessing an unprecedented growth of cyber-physical systems (CPS), which are foreseen to revolutionize our world {via} creating new services and applications in a variety of sectors such as environmental monitoring, mobile-health systems, intelligent transportation systems and so on. The {information and …
The Tech Decouplingq-fin.ST
Tech sector decouples from non-tech sectors post-2015, predicting economic growth.
problem Understanding the relationship between technology and economic growth.
method ARIMA modeling, stationarity tests, data wrangling, exploratory data analysis.
result The technology sector decouples from non-technology sectors post-2015 and predicts economic growth.
The uniqueness of company size distribution function from tent-shaped growth rate distributionphysics.soc-ph
We report the proof that the extension of Gibrat's law in the middle scale region is unique and the probability distribution function (pdf) is also uniquely derived from the extended Gibrat's law and the law of detailed balance. In the proof, two approximations are employed. The pdf of growth rate is described as tent-…
Abstract Coxeter groups have growth rates that are Perron numbers.
problem Understanding growth rates of Coxeter groups.
method Defined a class of Coxeter groups, --spanned, and analyzed their growth rates.
result For --spanned Coxeter groups, geodesic growth rate strictly dominates word growth rate and appears to be a Perron number.
Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this netw…
Study uses ML and statistical models to analyze climate impacts of industrial growth.
problem Understanding and predicting environmental impacts of industrial activities.
method Comparative analysis of ML and statistical models on time series data.
result ML models outperform statistical models in predicting environmental impacts.
We introduce the logistic model of consumption growth, which captures a negative feedback loop preventing an unlimited growth of consumption due to finite biophysical resources of our planet. This simple dynamic model allows for derivation of the expression describing the declining long-term tail of a social discount c…