A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper finds the normal distribution unsuitable for modeling daily stock returns and suggests using the Laplace distribution instead.
This paper finds that realized kurtosis predicts stock variance better than realized skewness for daily returns.
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price returns of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distri…
The -generalised distribution fits daily stock returns well.
Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution captures asymmetry in stock returns.
Study finds physical momentum portfolios in Indian stock market yield higher returns than benchmarks.
Study finds biotech stocks perform better on Wednesdays and Thursdays.
Study market state dependence using copulas of daily stock returns.
Deep learning models improve stock portfolio performance.
We investigate the recently introduced variety of a set of stock returns traded in a financial market. This investigation is done by considering daily and intraday time horizons in a 15-day time period centered at the August 31st, 1998 crash of the S&P500 index. All the stocks traded at the NYSE during that period are …
StockGPT predicts stock returns using AI, outperforming traditional strategies.
We study the statistics of record-breaking events in daily stock prices of 366 stocks from the Standard and Poors 500 stock index. Both the record events in the daily stock prices themselves and the records in the daily returns are discussed. In both cases we try to describe the record statistics of the stock data with…
The study uses LSTM and random forests to forecast stock price movements for intraday trading.
We select n stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the k trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We analyze each ensemble of stock returns by extracting its first four central moments. We observe that these moments are fl…
Study compares cryptocurrency and stock markets using statistical equilibrium models.
Study on non-stationary stock returns copulas, comparing models.
In terms of the stock exchange returns, we compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{DAX,+} and F{DAX,-} of the normalized positive and negative DAX (Germany) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled DAX daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-…
EXAMM evolves RNNs for stock return prediction and portfolio trading.
We select the stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We study the ensemble return distribution for each trading day and we find that the symmetry properties of the ensem…
Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.
Regression Trees analyze stock returns, revealing market excess return as the most informative factor.
Deep RL optimizes stock trading strategies for better returns.
Price fluctuations of commodities like cotton and wheat are thought to display probability distributions of returns that follow a Lévy stable distribution. Recent analysis of stocks and foreign exchange markets show that the probability distributions are not Lévy stable, a plausible result since commodity markets have …
We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high frequency data the asymmetry of time dependent cross-correlation functions has a d…
A new loss function boosts AI's stock trading performance.
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock pr…
The paper predicts TSE stocks using social media sentiment and volume.
Bayesian model predicts stock jumps from daily returns data.
AI predicts stock winners with 2.43 Sharpe ratio, but returns are highly concentrated.
In this letter we investigate the information provided by the "compass rose" (Crack, T.F. and Ledoit, O. (1996), Journal of Finance, 51(2), pg. 751-762) patterns revealed in phase portraits of daily stock returns. It has been initially suggested that the compass rose is just a manifestation of price clustering and disc…
We study the daily trading volume volatility of 17,197 stocks in the U.S. stock markets during the period 1989--2008 and analyze the time return intervals between volume volatilities above a given threshold q. For different thresholds q, the probability density function P_q(τ) scales with mean interval <τ> as P_q(τ…
In this report, we talked about a new quantitative strategy for choosing the optimal(s) stock(s) to trade. The basic notions are generally very known by the financial community. The key here is to understand 1) the standard score applied to a sample and 2) the correlation factor applied to different time series in real…
Transformer pre-training improves stock return prediction accuracy.
Study confirms Indian stock market is weak form inefficient.
Using a large set of daily US and Japanese stock returns, we test in detail the relevance of Student models, and of more general elliptical models, for describing the joint distribution of returns. We find that while Student copulas provide a good approximation for strongly correlated pairs of stocks, systematic discre…
A classic problem in physics is the origin of fat tailed distributions generated by complex systems. We study the distributions of stock returns measured over different time lags We find that destroying all correlations without changing the d distribution, by shuffling the order of the daily returns, causes…
The paper examines anomalies in Chinese stock markets and shows how short sale constraints affect investor behavior and return skewness.
A3T-GCN model forecasts FTSE100 stock prices using technical indicators and financial ratios.
It is well known that there exist statistical and structural differences between the stock markets of developed and emerging countries. In this work, we present an analysis of the variations and autocorrelations of the Mexican Stock Market index (IPC) for different periods of its historical daily data, showing evidence…
We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties both of a single time series and of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange to form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns. For each tradin…
We investigate the emergence of a structure in the correlation matrix of assets' returns as the time-horizon over which returns are computed increases from the minutes to the daily scale. We analyze data from different stock markets (New York, Paris, London, Milano) and with different methods. Result crucially depends …
Using a time-varying approach, this paper examines the dynamics of volatility in the REIT sector. The results highlight the attractiveness and suitability of using GARCH based approaches in the modeling of daily REIT volatility. The paper examines the influencing factors on REIT volatility, documenting the return and v…
The nature of fluctuations in the Indian financial market is analyzed in this paper. We have looked at the price returns of individual stocks, with tick-by-tick data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and daily closing price data from both NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the two largest exchanges in India.…
A universal LSTM model outperforms asset-specific models in forecasting stock volatilities.
A model explains stock returns and volatility using multifractal and rough components.
This study analyzes factors affecting China's stock market volatility.
We compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{AEX,+} and F{AEX,-} of the normalized positive and negative AEX (Netherlands) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the αre-scaled AEX daily index positive returns r(t)^αand negative returns (-r(t))^αthat we call, after normalization, the …